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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/14/2023

by Spencer Toth - 3/14/2023

Milwaukee bucks daily betting predictions Chris Paul Phoenix Suns

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Last night, the Bucks flexed their offensive muscles, beating the Sacramento Kings 133-124. It was a battle of the big men as Giannis Antetokounmpo had a monstrous performance, scoring 46 points with 12 rebounds, while Domantas Sabonis scored 23 points with 17 rebounds and 15 assists. The Bucks battled back from a 15-point first half deficit thanks to several easy baskets and solid paint protection from Brook Lopez.

From a betting perspective, we had another positive night. We cashed our 4 Unit bet on Bucks Moneyline, and lost 1 Unit on De’Aaron Fox Assists. While we’re only 53-52 this season, we’re up 12.6 Units thanks to meticulous unit selection, and a perfect record on 4+ Unit plays.

There is no rest for Milwaukee, (49-19) as they travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns (37-31). The Suns are also coming off a back-to-back, as they played in Golden State last night, losing to the Warriors 123-112. Phoenix went all-in at the deadline, sacrificing their future to make a run at the championship, by picking up an aging Kevin Durant at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, the 34-year-old has only played 3 games for the team, and is expected to miss a few more weeks. Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Ayton are more than capable of holding down the fort, and the Suns are still sitting in 4th place in the West.

Booker has been the number one option in Phoenix for years, and will need to relinquish that role to Durant upon his return. Both players are skilled, but Durant’s limited minutes with the team could hurt them in the postseason. For now, on paper, the Suns look relatively unchanged from the 64-18 team from last season, but the losses have been piling up, and they are on pace to double their 18 losses from last season. To pick up Durant, the Suns had to send away young talents like Mikal Bridges, and their bench has been stretched thin until he returns.

These two teams squared off two weeks ago, with the Bucks prevailing 104-101. Antetokounmpo didn’t play, and the Bucks won despite being uncharacteristically outrebounded 55-45 in the victory. In tonight’s matchup, the injury reports haven’t been released, and one or both teams could elect to rest players after two fast paced road games last night. Of course, the big name to look for on the Bucks injury report is Antetokounmpo. And since Khris Middleton hasn’t featured in a back-to-back since returning from his knee injury, I expect him to sit.

Antetokounmpo put on a show last night, and truly looked like an unstoppable force on the court. This Bucks team has all the tools to win an NBA championship and have emerged as the team to beat this season. Brook Lopez is now the front runner for DPOY, as the 7-footer patrols the paint, attempting to block every shot his opponents throw up. He also finds himself raining down 3’s like few men his size can, shooting a career high 38.4% from deep. Mike Budenholzer calls Lopez the glue of this franchise, highlighted by his willingness to fight for a late, unnecessary foul on Antetokounmpo in the dying seconds last night. Antetokounmpo and Holiday are also considered some of the best defenders at their respective positions, and the Bucks can dominate on both ends of the court unlike any other NBA team.

The Bucks are heading to Phoenix as slight road favorites, but it’s difficult to predict who will be walking onto the court for both teams. For Milwaukee, I can comfortably expect Middleton to sit, and Budenholzer rarely gives rest to anyone other than Antetokounmpo. Considering how fresh Antetokounmpo looked last night, his status wouldn’t surprise me either way. For the Suns, they elected not to rest any of their players on the last back-to-back, but they did rest Booker and Paul in the previous two occurrences.

At full strength, these two teams are an interesting matchup. The Suns excel using their elite guard play, and Milwaukee can struggle to contain multiple ball handling guards. Holiday can only guard one of Paul and Booker. And while JeVon Carter and Grayson Allen are no slouches on the defensive end, Holiday is a tier above. However, aside from Ayton, the Suns don’t have the size to contain the usual trio of big men the Bucks will throw their way. They may have out rebounded the Bucks by 10 last time out, but I expect the floor to shift in Milwaukee’s favor tonight.

I understand this is not a Bucks fan page, but they keep winning and covering games, forcing me to side with the visitors once again tonight. Considering the injury reports aren’t out yet, I will not be going crazy, but I can get behind a 2-point spread in Phoenix. The Bucks beat the Suns two weeks ago. And if they can clean up the glass more effectively, they should be able to do so once again.

The second bet for the night is Bucks vs Suns Under 232.5. I expect some tired legs in the second half, and for the pace of play to slow down significantly as the game goes on. I’m not expecting a repeat of the 204-point performance last time these two met, but 232.5 is way too high for 2 top 10 defenses.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-2) 1 Unit

Pick: Bucks vs Suns Under 232.5 1 Unit

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 11-9

Spread Record: 12-11

Total Record: 6-10

Player Props Record: 24-20

Total: 53-52

Up 12.6 Units ($1260)

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