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Free MLB Picks Los Angeles Angels: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 5/5/2023

by Joey House - 5/5/2023

Los Angeles Angels daily betting picks Dane Dunning Texas Rangers

This baseball season, I will be analyzing the Los Angeles Angels and their opponent and formulate a wagering strategy to maximize profit. While not every investment will be in the Angels' favor, what will be in YOUR favor is my in-depth knowledge of the American League West and MLB in general as we focus on the strongest selections. Let Doc's Sports be your guide through the marathon that is better known as the Major League Baseball season.

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When we last invested in the Los Angeles Angels, we earned two units when they won as -300 favorites over Kansas City 2-0 on April 21st. In addition, we won another unit when Shohei Ohtani struck out over 7.5 Royals in his outing. This wager was just as exciting as Ohtani started impeccably, striking out the side in the first and having five Ks through five innings. When he walked the lead-off batter to start the 6th, I was concerned that the ultra-cautious Angels pitching coach might yank him. However, they let him in, and he turned into pure gold, striking outside in both the 6th and 7th, to finish with 11 strikeouts while only surrendering two hits over seven innings. He lowered his infinitesimal ERA to 0.64 while moving to 3-0 in the young season.

Friday evening brings the AL West-leading Texas Rangers (18-12) to Angel Stadium of Anaheim in an early battle for first place in the division as the Angels are sitting with an 18-14 record. LHP Tyler Anderson (1-0 5.74) pitches for Los Angeles, while there is some speculation as to who the Rangers will start. Jacob deGrom is on the 15-day IL. And even though it's Nathan Eovaldi's turn in the rotation, indications point to Texas having a "bullpen game" and starting long reliever Dane Dunning (2-0 1.77 ERA).

Texas enters the contest 5-5 over their last 10 games. They played very well against the New York Yankees, taking three out of four games in their most recent series at Globe Life Field. However, they had preceded that series by being swept on the road at Cincinnati, losing two in walk-off fashion. They're hitting the ball very well, batting a collective .263 as a team, 7th in the Major Leagues. They've scored the third most runs with 191 and they are 5th in the MLB with an OPS of .794.

Los Angeles kicks off this 3-game set winners in seven of their last 10 games, including a modest three-game win streak against the best two teams in the NL Central, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. Offensively speaking, they're quite similar to Texas, batting .263 as a team with 170 runs scored and a .762 OPS.

Pitching is a repeat of the offensive comparisons. The Rangers sport a 3.74 team ERA to the Angels' 3.88. Texas has a slightly better WHIP at 1.19 vs. Los Angeles at 1.25. Los Angeles features a little more power pitching, with 281 strikeouts from their staff against Texas's 257. Walks are flip-flopped again, as the Rangers have issued 88 free passes to the 115 of Los Angeles.

These two teams are evenly matched both on paper and on the field. Dunning has pitched well for the Rangers, but that's out of the bullpen. Anderson has pitched poorly, although his last out was solid 6 2/3 innings no-decision against the surprisingly-good Brewers.

The line currently stands at Texas +125 and Los Angeles -145 with a total of 9.5 runs. I'm focusing on both the Angels on the moneyline and also the over.

Don't be fooled by Dunning's impressive numbers. While he's flashing an impressive 1.77 ERA this year, it has been his first completely out of the pen. Before that, he had an ERA over 4.15 as a starter. This will be the first game he's started this season and I anticipate seeing the Dunning of old.

I have a slight lean towards the over because of Anderson's poor performance so far this season. I expect both starters to give up about eight runs combined and then see the bullpens allowing the other two.

Pick: Los Angeles -145 3 units

Pick: Over 9.5 +100 1 unit

2023 Season

O/U Record: 2-1 (+3 units)

Player Prop: 2-2 (+1.1 units)

ML: 1-1 (-2 units)

Total: 5-4

Up 2.1 units (+$210)

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