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Free MLB Picks Los Angeles Angels: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 5/23/2023

by Joey House - 5/23/2023

Los Angeles Angels daily betting picks Griffin Canning

This baseball season, I will be analyzing the Los Angeles Angels and their opponent and formulate a wagering strategy to maximize profit. While not every investment will be in the Angels' favor, what will be in YOUR favor is my in-depth knowledge of the American League West and MLB in general as we focus on the strongest selections. Let Doc's Sports be your guide through the marathon that is better known as the Major League Baseball season.

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It's been some time since I've submitted a wager, but I've been following the Angels closely and am cautiously optimistic that their season can still be a successful one. It's been very disappointing to be a fan of a squad with so much talent and potential and year after year see it squandered and wasted. The last bet I did recommend was Texas vs. Los Angeles on May 5th (Cinco De Mayo) and I had the Angels -145 for 3 units and also the over at 9.0 at +100. The Halos came through in fine fashion, scoring three runs to tie it in the bottom of the ninth and then winning it in the first extra frame. We pushed on the over, but after the mini-miracle in the 9th, it felt like a win.

The Boston Red Sox (26-22) are in L.A. for a three-game series. The Red Sox lost the first game last night 2-1. The line for Game 2 is the Red Sox -115 Angels -105 O/U 9.5 runs. The first pitch is slated for 9:38 P.M. EST.

Boston sends RHP Brayan Bello (3-1 4.45) to the bump to face the Angels RHP Griffin Canning (2-2 6.14).

Playing in the fierce AL East, where every team has a winning record, Boston's 26-22 record is commendable. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games, including last night's defeat. One area where they have had a little difficulty has been against right-handed pitching, as they have a sub .500 record of 14-17, as opposed to their stellar record against lefties, 12-5. Their success can be attributed to their prolific offense, as they rank among the top 5 teams in the American League for runs, doubles, times caught stealing, batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS. These offensive stats are needed to offset a pitching staff that is ranked in the bottom 5 teams in the American League in ERA, hits, runs allowed, home runs given up, and strikeouts. Not surprisingly, the over in Red Sox games is 29-17-2 for an Over percentage of 63%.

I was once told that real estate is all about location, location, location. In the case of the Los Angeles Angels, that is an appropriate description regarding their record and divisional standing. With only one more loss than their current opponent, the Angels' season nonetheless feels like a major disappointment because of the divisions. Somehow, 4th in the AL East seems better than 3rd in the AL West, because of the denizens of the respective divisions. The Angels have already played 10 games against the two worst teams, record-wise, in baseball, with their games against Oakland and Kansas City. While they are a combined 7-3 against those two, the strength of schedule (or, more accurately, the lack thereof) diminishes the Halo's accomplishments.

These two squads resembled each other more than they differ from one another. The Angels rank in the top 5 teams in the American League for runs, batting average, home runs, caught stealing, slugging percentage, and OPS. It's almost like looking in a mirror. Their pitching is just slightly better and in the bottom five of only four different pitching categories.

In keeping with the theme of similarity, both of these teams have been on an under streak, albeit a minor one. The Red Sox have seen the under cash in their last four games and the in their last three. However, I am going against the current trend and taking the over. First, Red Sox pitcher Bello is worse than his 4.45 ERA would lead you to believe. All batters are hitting .295 off of him and lefties at a .327 clip. Guess what side the best hitter from the Angels, Shoei Ohtani, hits from?

And, since these two teams are so much alike, it would only make sense that the starting pitchers are practically carbon copies of one another. The Angels Canning is allowing a .284 batting average to hitters, with lefties sporting a .333 rate. Five of the Red Sox starters bat from the left side of the plate.

Finally, in the computer model that I ran in over 10,000 games, both of the starting pitchers had ERAs north of 5.00. With the current total resting at 9.5, it seems almost like a gift.

Pick: Over 9.5 -110 3 units

2023 Season

O/U Record: 2-1-1 (+3 units)

Player Prop: 2-2 (+1.1 units)

Money Line: 2-1 (+1 units)

Total: 6-4-1

Up 5.1 units (+$510)

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