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Free MLB Picks Los Angeles Angels: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/19/2023

by Joey House - 4/19/2023

Los Angeles Angels daily betting picks Aaron Judge New York Yankees

This baseball season, I will be analyzing the Los Angeles Angels and their opponent and formulate a wagering strategy to maximize profit. While not every investment will be in the Angels' favor, what will be in YOUR favor is my in-depth knowledge of the American League West and MLB in general as we focus on the strongest selections. Let Doc's Sports be your guide through the marathon that is better known as the Major League Baseball season.

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Our last investment went south as the Los Angeles Angels coughed up an early 2-run lead but didn't allow enough runs, losing 5-3 to the Boston Red Sox. That killed both our straight bet on the Halos and the little investment on the over.

It isn't the losing that bothered me so much, but it was the fashion that they lost in. The Angels pitching staff gave up five runs on the evening, but only one of them was earned. They committed three errors in the field. On the year, they have booted the ball a disappointing 12 times. It's tough to factor in three errors in a game.

After dropping three out of four to the Red Sox, the Los Angeles Angels moved onto the Bronx to do battle with the New York Yankees. The first game saw the Angels win 5-2 as it was pitcher by committee for Los Angeles. They used four different relievers and their starter, Jose Suarez, is nothing more than a long-relief specialist in a 6-man rotation. In three starts this season, he's pitched a total of 11.2 innings. In the battle of power between Ohtani and Judge, Shohei drew first blood, with a 2-run blast in the first. He finished the night 1-3, two runs scored, 2 RBIs and even a stolen base. Judge finished 0-3 with two strikeouts, but he did have a RBI.

Game two of the three game set features RHP Griffin Canning (0-0 3.60) vs RHP Jhony Brito (2-1 6.75). The current line is Los Angeles +120 and New York -130 with the total runs set at 9.0.

Canning made his first start in almost 22 months as he missed half of the 2021 campaign and the entire 2022 season with a back strain. His first start in almost two years was solid, going five innings, allowing five hits and two runs with four strikeouts and no walks against the Washington Nationals on April 12th. This is a scary situation if you're a Angels fan because Canning has struggled with is giving up the long ball, with his career Homerun-to-Fly Ball percentage is 14.0%. In context, the league average is approximately 10.0%.

Jhony Brito, Canning's counterpart on the Yankees, is making his third start in his rookie campaign. He was roughed up his last start, giving up six hits and seven earned runs in just 2/3 of an inning. However, before that, he was 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA.He's a hard thrower (average velocity on his 4-seamer is 95.8 MPH.

The Yankees are hitting .232 as a team with 153 strikeouts. However, in addition to being prone to serve a few gopher balls, Canning is not a prolific strikeout artist. Even with the Yankees being free-swingers, Canning's strikeout line is at 4.5.

What this all boils down to is there should be an offensive fan's delight. Running this game through my computer model 10,000, both pitchers ended up with an ERA north of 5.00. High ERA's and low strikeout totals equals plenty of hits and runs.

With this in mind, I'm going to structure my wagers accordingly. The 5-inning run total is currently 5.0 at even money (+100). I like that because of Canning's home run issues and both pitchers low strikeout percentages. Building on that, I'm also investing in a 2-leg parlay of the over 9.0 runs and the Yankees -1.5 runs at +145. This two-teamer sits at +349.

Finally, I'm going to take a quarter of a unit on every Yankee starter to hit a homerun. This will result in laying out 2.25 units, but one homerun from anybody other than Judge will either turn a profit or almost pay for the entire outlay. In 44 career games start, Canning has allowed 36 homeruns in 26 of them, with six games having two dingers and two games having three. Here are the Yankees current home run odds:

Oswaldo Cabera +700 Franchy Cordero +725 Aaron Judge +225

DJ LeMahieu +1225 Anthony Rizzo +475 Gleyber Torres +525

Jose Trevino +1025 Anthony Volpe +700

My strategy would be to put a quarter on every eight of the Yankees' hitters and then a full unit on Judge. He turns a quarter unit profit if he is the ONLY one to go deep.

Pick: Over 5 runs in 1st five innings +100 1 UNIT

Pick: 2-leg parlay Over 9 runs/NY Yankees -1.5 +349 1 UNIT

Pick: Aaron Judge Homerun prop +225 1 UNIT

Pick: Any NY Yankee starter Homerun prop 8x.25 units 2 UNITS

For those who like to have multiple wagers working, this is a dream strategy. Even though we only invested 5 units, these wagers can work in synergy and just a couple of homeruns can return a very nice profit.

2023 Season Record

O/U Record: 2-1 (+3 units)

Player Prop: 1-2 (+.1 unit)

ML: 0-1 (-4 units)

Total: 3-4

Down 0.9 units (-$90)

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