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Free MLB Picks Los Angeles Angels: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/14/2023

by Joey House - 4/14/2023

Los Angeles Angels daily betting picks Patrick Sandoval

This baseball season, I will be analyzing the Los Angeles Angels and their opponent and formulate a wagering strategy to maximize profit. While not every investment will be in the Angels' favor, what will be in YOUR favor is my in-depth knowledge of the American League West and MLB in general as we focus on the strongest selections. Let Doc's Sports be your guide through the marathon that is better known as the Major League Baseball season.

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The last game we invested in was the 6-4 loss against the Washington Nationals. The 2-unit over 9.5 cashed for us, but, alas, Shohei didn't go yard and both he and Trout were held hitless. We can't all be the Tampa Bay Rays.

Friday sees Los Angeles embark on a 7-game East Coast swing, opening up against the Boston Red Sox in the fabled Fenway Park. The invading Angels bring a 7-5 record and 1st place standing in the American League West. Opposing them are the 5-8 last-place Red Sox. The current odds are Los Angeles -120 and Boston is +100. The total run line is at 9.5.

Boston is currently riding a 4-game losing streak, courtesy of the invincible (so far) Tampa Bay Rays. Their pitching staff was pummeled in that series, giving up seven, nine, and nine runs, respectively, after losing a 1-0 shutout to kick off the series. Unfortunately for fans of Red Sox pitching, the only thing they're in the top half of the AL in is complete games, tied for first with the other 14 American League teams since no one has thrown one yet. 

The Angels, in addition to having the exact inverse of the Red Sox in record, are the polar opposite of them in pitching. They are in the top 5 of every pitching category with the exception of strikeouts, where they are ranked 13th with 98 Ks.

The Red Sox have been better when they're taking their swings at the plate. They have a team batting average of .244, a slugging percentage of .427, and an OPS of .749. They have gone yard 16 times as a team. Rafel Devers is off to a hot start on the season, tied for the league lead in home runs with five. Adam Duvall is right behind him with four homers and 14 RBIs.

The Angels have done just enough offensively to have the record they do. Their team batting average is .238, with a slugging percentage of .404 and an OPS of .738. They have taken opposing pitchers deep 17 times, with Logan O'Hoppe hitting four dingers and three other Angels hitting three.

In a bad news/good news situation for Red Sox fans, CF Adam Duvall has been on the 10-day IL with a wrist issue, but luckily it will not require surgery. 

This line does not make sense to me. Believe me, I am not the biggest Patrick Sandoval fan, but in this matchup, against a slightly weakened Boston lineup, he seems like the much stronger play. I ran this game through my computer model 10,000 times, and Sandoval had better than a 58% win rate. Both starting pitchers combined for an ERA of 9.54. With that in mind, I'll make a strong play on the Angels and a one-unit play on the over.

Pick: Los Angeles -120 4 units

Pick: Over 9.5 1 unit

2023 Season Record

O/U Record: 2-0

Player Prop Record: 1-2

Total: 3-2

Up 4.1 Units ($410) 

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