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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 12/9/2023

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/8/2023

Expert NHL handicapping roundup plus Saturday free pick Pyotr Kochetkov Carolina Hurricanes

Another great week of hockey is behind us, and it is time for another edition of our Friday Round-Up series. Last night we saw the Sharks somehow score six goals on the road while the Isles broke out and notched seven tallies against the Blue Jackets. Dallas won in a shootout, as Scott Wedgewood stopped the Great 8’s attempt, and the Flyers just keep rolling after they beat the Yotes, 4-1. New week, developed trends, let’s take a look at where the money is being made around the league.

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Record-Setting Road Run

You should have been on this trend by now, but if you are not familiar, the Los Angeles Kings have yet to lose a road game this season. Their 11 straight road wins is the most all-time by any club to start the season. On the road they have a +32-goal differential, which would rank 2nd best in the NHL’s overall goal differential rankings (Vancouver has a +33-goal differential overall). So, what is the formula? To start, the goaltending has been insanely good for the Kings this season, especially on the road. They have allowed just 18 goals this season on the road and have allowed more than two goals in just three of those 11 road games. Cam Talbot has been the netminder is nine of those 11 wins and has allowed just 1.67 GA/G and has pitched two shutouts. However, it is a perfect blend for the Kings road domination. Los Angeles has scored no less than 3 goals in all 11 contests, for a nice average of 4.55 GF/G. This team has tremendous depth of skaters, with five players recording more than 20 points already through the teams first 23 games. Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe lead the team with 24 points, while Kevin Fiala, Trevor Moore, and Quinton Byfield fall in line with 23, 22, and 21 points, respectively. And to think Pierre-Luc Dubois has yet to really get going… This is a dangerous team.

Carolina Woes

The Hurricanes have looked more like a rain shower than a dangerous hurricane. This is a team that many around the NHL favored to win the Metro and they have yet to reinforce those beliefs. They are just one win from finding themselves in second place in the division, but they are eight points behind the Rangers, who reign in their place atop the division standings. For one, they cannot win on the road. They are currently in a three-game skid, with all three being road games. And what’s worse is they have three more consecutive games on the road. They did lose Frederik Andersen a month ago, as he is dealing with some health issues and is out indefinitely. However, overall, their goaltending has to be better. Andersen was 4-1 and allowed just 2.87 GA/G before being placed on the IR. Pyotr Kochetkov and Anitti Raanta need to be better, as the tandem has combined to allowed 3.23 GA/G and a mere SV% of just .868. Another reason we are not seeing Carolina flourish like they did a season ago is their poor penalty kill play. Last season, Carolina ranked 2nd in the NHL with a PK% of 84.4%, this season they sit at 78.3%, which ranks in the bottom half of the league at 19th. Now they are 8-2-1 at home and have equal production up and down the roster, but playoff teams can win on the road.

Nashville Confirmed Wagon

Don’t count them out. After a sluggish start, the Preds have won nine of their last 11 games and are in the midst of a three-game win streak. Juuse Saros has been dominant in his last three starts, as he has allowed just five goals in those games. Not only has Saros returned to form, but the offense has been solid as well, as they have averaged 3.72 GF/G in the last 11 contests, which is well above their season average of 3.23 GF/G. Over the last 11 games, Nashville has allowed more than three goals in a game only in the two losses, with one of them being a very weird 6-1 home loss in the Coach Hynes revenge game as he beat his former club. Filip Forsberg ranks in the top 15 in the league in points with 30, as he and veterans Ryan O’Reilly and Roman Josi try and lead this young club. They will need to improve on their special teams’ play if they want to continue their success, but right now this is a club that is making backers a lot of money as they just keep rolling.

Be Patient, Pittsburgh

Just hang in there, success is coming. Yes, the Penguins are in 7th place in the Metro right now, but their rise is coming. Four of the six teams ahead of them all have a negative goal-differential. Washington is one of just two teams this season that has yet to reach 60 goals. The other? The San Jose Sharks… Regressing to the mean is a real thing. They will lose, and so will the Isles and Flyers. Let’s be practical… not many of us thought Philly and the Isles would be in the guaranteed spot, and if you say you did, you are lying. They may not be bad teams, but this Penguins roster is loaded, and they will mesh together. They are just 3-8 in their last 11 games, but five of those losses were one-goal games, with three of them needing overtime. Eight of their 14 overall losses have been by one possession, while just two of their wins have been by one possession. I know we are splitting hairs here, but that should tell you that six of their games could just need one redirect and we have a different result. Six more points, and the Penguins are second in the Metro. There is plenty of firepower on the roster. LW Jake Guentzel leads the way with 29 points, while Sidney Crosby is right behind him with 27, and his 15 goals lead the team. After those two, Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust both have 20 or more points, while blueliner Erik Karlsson (who is coming off a 100+ point season) has 19. Their goaltending ranks 5th in GA/G with just a 2.60 mark and they rank 3rd in the NHL with a solid .922 SV%. This team has what it takes to win games, just be patient. This is a playoff team.

Saturday Free Pick – New York Rangers @ Washington Capitals NYR -1.5 +168

The Rangers might be the best team in the Eastern Conference, and they are strong on the road. Their road record is 10-3-1. The Rangers have yet to lose back-to-back games this season, and they are coming off a loss in their previous outing. Washington has no offensive firepower, and their tank is empty after scoring four goals in their last contest against Dallas. Washington has scored more than three goals in back-to-back games only twice this season. Rangers roll and cover thanks to their stars.

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