Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 12/23/2023

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/22/2023

Expert NHL handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Connor Ingram Arizona Coyotes

Back for another edition of the NHL Friday Round-up. Taking a look back at the last week, as we near the holiday pause, Ottawa has fired their coach after a disappointing start to the season, Dallas is riding a five-game point streak and is now leading the Central, and Vegas is facing a nightmare situation as Adin Hill gets placed on the IR and Logan Thompson is DTD. Now let’s take a look at where money is being made and some interesting futures to entertain.

Doc’s Sports offers NHL expert picks for every game on our hockey predictions page.

Wild West

There are some crazy races in the Western Conference for the division titles. In the Pacific you have a neck-and-neck race with the Knights and Canucks that seemingly flips every night, while the Kings are one hot streak away from the top. Additionally, it may be time to start giving the Oilers some attention as they are just seven points out of the last wild card spot despite an absolutely abysmal start to their campaign. DraftKings has Vegas as the favorites to win the Pacific at +140, while the Kings have the second-best odds at +170, and the Canucks sit third with +300 odds. I love the idea of taking a chance on that Vancouver number. They are 8-4 against their division opponents, which is the second-best mark behind Vegas who is 8-2-2. Vegas has the tiebreaker against Vancouver as they won the first of four contests between these two clubs, 4-1. Vegas has the immediate tiebreakers against the Canucks, but Vancouver has sustained a great run and looks like they could dethrone the Knights as winners of the Pacific.

As for the Central Division, Dallas finds themselves in first place with 42 points and the tiebreaker over the Avs. Colorado has 42 points as well, one ahead of the scorching hot Jets. Not only that, but Nashville and Arizona are knocking on the door of getting into a guaranteed spot, while both currently hold the two wild card spots. Dallas is the current favorites to win the division with +120 odds, while Colorado is a close second at +175. Similarly to the Canucks, the Jets have a favorable mark despite being right in the mix as they have +380 odds. I think the Jets may fall off a bit, especially as they miss Kyle Connor, and Dallas and Colorado are better built for a run. Dallas is 5-1-1 against other teams in the Central and is 2-0 against the Jets.

Looking at the Western Conference title as a whole, the Avalanche have the best odds at +380, while Vegas is right behind them at +400. I am a big fan of Dallas, though, at +550 and Vancouver at +1100 is just insane, as they have the firepower to beat anyone.

Are the ‘Yotes for Real?

Arizona has put together a solid season so far, surpassing offseason expectations, and has control over the 2nd wild card spot with 36 points on the year and currently on a four-game win streak. There has been no streakier team than the Coyotes. Dating back to November 18, the Coyotes went on a three-game skid, then won five in a row, then another skid of four games, and are now working a four-game win streak. Up and down and up and down. Their goaltending has been solid this season, as Connor Ingram has become their guy, while Karel Vejmelka has come on of late, allowing less than 2 GA/G over his last three starts. Outside of their solid netminding, they are just average in about everything else. The offense needs to get going as they are only averaging 3.13 GF/G. If they could add pieces to the offense, this team could be a wagon. However, Arizona has sustained success in home games as they have gone 11-5, and they have solid success with the over game total hitting in 18 of 32 games.

Columbus Covering Wagon

Wow, a positive note on the Blue Jackets. Columbus ranks 3rd in the NHL in Cover % as they have covered in 21 of their 34 games on the year. Eleven of their losses on the year have been one-goal games, which is where the bulk of the covers have come from as Columbus is rarely favored in their games. This is a bad team with little offensive firepower, but goalie Elvis Merzlikins has had a solid year. In games where Merzlikins was the starting goalie, the Blue Jackets have covered in 16 of the 20 games. If Merzlikins is in the net, I am taking the Columbus cover.

What’s Sustainable?

There have been some surprise teams so far this season, and, as a result, we have some interesting playoff races going on as we near the end of the first half of the season. Let’s take a look at what runs are sustainable and what Vegas is saying about it.

In the East, there has been no bigger surprise than the Philadelphia Flyers. Philly is in second place in the Metro with 39 points. They have been better away from home as they have recorded points in 12 of 16 road games so far, which is necessary to keep yourself in the hunt. They have points in nine of their last 10 games and are the second-best team ATS this season. Vegas is buying it as they have a -120 mark to make the playoffs. However, they play in a tough division, and I do not think Samuel Ersson is going to continue his dominance.

Additionally, the Islanders are right there with 39 points and are third in the Metro, and Washington is fourth with 38 points. Both teams have negative point differentials, and their offenses are not good. Carolina is figuring it out and are a win away from being in a guaranteed spot, while the Devils and Penguins are going to put up a fight to get back in the race. Vegas is not buying the Caps, as their odds of making the playoffs are +180, while the Isles have Vegas’ favor with -150 odds to crack the bracket.

In the West, Nashville and Arizona have been big time surprises. GM Barry Trotz did say it was a reshape not a rebuild, but no one expected the Preds to be where they are at this point. There is nothing flashy for the Preds outside of Filip Forsberg, as the offense as a whole and the goaltending hasn’t been anything more than average. However, maybe the Preds buy at the deadline and young stud Luke Evangelista gets going. As for Arizona, we just talked about their streakiness, and their netminding is much better than Nashville’s (ha-ha says Connor Ingram). However, I do think the veteran presence on the Preds roster will give them the edge in terms of sustaining a run. Vegas agrees as Nashville has -135 odds to make the playoffs while the Yotes have +300 odds.

Saturday Free Pick- Boston Bruins @ Minnesota Wild – Minnesota Money Line -105

I do think the Bruins will slow down the Wild. However, with Boston on a back-to-back, I think the Wild will win this one. In their previous matchup, Minnesota stole an OT win, and I think Minnesota will put up a good fight. Minnesota also does a good job defending their home ice as well as they have collected points in 10 of their 14 home games. Minnesota gets the win before the break.

Get NHL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent Hockey Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers