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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 12/2/2023

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/1/2023

Expert NHL handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Igor Shesterkin NY Rangers

Another great week of hockey is behind us and as we turn our attention to the weekend, it is time for another edition of our Friday Roundup. Perhaps in no bigger news, Corey Perry has been cut by the Blackhawks due to workplace conduct, Minnesota’s coaching change has had an immediate impact, and the Blues continue to dominate at home. With all that said, let’s turn out attention to four money-making trends that have surfaced in today’s NHL.

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League Trends

We have enough of a sample size not only on each individual team, but the league as a whole. We are through 353 league games this season, and some league wide trends have begun to take shape and solidify themselves. Time to favor the favorites. Straight up, the favorites are winning 58.9% of the time, with home favorites cashing at an even higher rate at 61.1%. However, the road teams have done a nice job of covering throughout the year. ATS, road teams have covered in 55% of the time. Underdogs have covered 62% of the contests with away dogs covering in, an impressive 64.6% of the games this season. The home team favorite has covered just 35.4% of the time, so keep that in mind the next time your team is favored in a contest at home. It’s no surprise the away team success if you look at the league standings. The Kings are 9-0 on the road, Dallas is 8-1-1, and the Rangers are 9-2-1 and to further back the success ATS, 13 of the 32 teams in the NHL have a winning record on the road. As for Game Totals, the under has hit in 54.3% of the league’s contests this season in non-overtime games.

Raging Rangers

The Rangers have fought off injuries to some key players throughout the first quarter of the season and have still found themselves amongst the league’s titans. They are currently tied with the Bruins at the top of the Eastern Conference and are one point behind Vegas for the best in the league. As mentioned, their road success is among the league’s best, as they are 9-2-1 in their first 12 road games. A lot of their success can be credited to their goaltending. We all know Igor Shesterkin is one of the best netminders in the world, and he is living up to that again this season, but the biggest surprise is the resurgence of Jonathan Quick. He signed with the Rangers to just be that Vet backup for Shesterkin, but he has far exceeded that role. The 37-year-old is dominating in a way we have not seen since his early 2010’s days with the Kings. If he can continue his dominance, it will allow Shesterkin to have more rest, which could lead to increased success for him as well. Artemi Panarin has also been a tremendous X-Factor for the Rangers this season. The LW is 6th in the league with 31 points, while he and teammate Chris Kreider are in the top 12 in the NHL in goals. Blueliner Adam Fox has averaged a point a game in limited action this season and he returned to the ice for the first time in 27 days back on Wednesday. Three of their next four games are on the road, and their lone home game is against the Sharks, the success is likely to continue over the next week.

Trophy Talk!

This part is a sneak peek into a future article on the landscape for all awards, so for now we are just going to talk about the Hart Trophy.

Through the league’s first quarter of the year, the landscape of contenders for the Hart have changed tremendously. After starting the season at -105 odds to win, Connor McDavid is now at +400. That is still the favorite, and rightfully so as McJesus is McJesus. However, there has been some major movement from some unexpected names. Most notably, Elias Pettersson and Artemi Panarin. Pettersson has been a big piece of the Canucks success and currently ranks 7th in points with 30 while Panarin ranks 6th with 31 points and has been the guy for the Rangers. Those two ranked 5th and 7th in current odds to win the Hart. Nikita Kucherov and Quinn Hughes have greatly improved their odds as well. Hughes started the season with +1800 odds, and Kucherov started with +2500 odds to take home the award. Hughes has improved those odds to +450 and now sits right behind McDavid. Kucherov has improved his odds to +800, which is the fourth best mark.

Under Utopia in PA

The state of Pennsylvania loves the under. Well, for purposes of this article, the hockey teams do, but the Steelers and Phillies are other PA clubs that contribute to the overall success of the Under. The Eagles and 76ers currently favor the Over, but the state as a whole loves the Under. Now for hockey, the Penguins and Flyers have gone below the game total a combined 28 times this season. That is 62.2% of the time. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offense, as they combine to average just 3.03 GF/G. On the other hand, both clubs goaltending units rank in the top half of the league allowing a combined average of just 2.73 GA/G. With no offense and solid goalie play, the under is a go if the game features a team from Pennsylvania.

Saturday Free Pick – Washington Capitals @ Vegas Golden Knights 2 Units on Under 6.5 -134

Between these two teams, the under has hit 29 times in 42 combined games. Both of these teams have subpar offenses with solid goaltending. Vegas finds themselves in the bottom half of the league in GF/G with 3.13, while the Capitals 2.45 mark ranks 31st. Adin Hill is projected to be in the net tonight for Vegas, and he leads the league in GA/G allowing just 1.87 GA/G and his .935 SV% is also atop the NHL. Vegas has more star power to get the win, but this is going to be a low scoring affair making the under the right call.

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