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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/3/2023

NHL expert handicapping Cal Petersen Philadelphia Flyers

As we enter the second month of the season, it is time to take our first deep dive into some betting trends that were established through the first nine or 10 games each team has played. Last night’s slate gave us fans a reminder on just how intensely competitive this sport is, even in the regular season. Boston blew a 2-0 lead in all of five minutes before winning in a shootout over division opponent Toronto, Dallas went into Edmonton and beat the (not so?) high-flying Oilers with backup netminder Scott Wedgewood, and the Rangers beat Carolina thanks to a late goal by Will Cuylle. It was a great night of hockey. All that is great. However, what are you really here for? Some insight on how to make some money. I have identified four trends to pay close attention to and a free pick for Saturday.

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Don’t Let the Devil Fool You

New Jersey finds themselves second in the Metro with 13 points through nine games with a 6-2-1 record. However, the Devils record is an evil attraction. They are just 2-7 ATS. Additionally, you need to pay attention to who their opponents have been thus far. They have been favored in every single game this season except for their road matchup against the Islanders. With that being said, in the games where the Devils find themselves as favorites, they are a mere 1-7 ATS. Their poor performance relative to the puckline can be blamed on their goaltending. Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid have combined to allow 3.56 GA/G and a low .885 SV%. However, the Devils do offer some positive trends as well. They are 9-0 on the O/U this season and are 3-0 on the road. And if you are reading this, now is a good time to get in on the away trend as New Jersey is on the road for six of their next eight games. The competition over the next nine games is much tougher than their first nine, so it’s rational to believe their performance ATS will continue to rear its ugly head.

Edmonton Skating on Thin Ice

Last year, the weakness was easily identifiable. This year, it’s worse. Edmonton has nothing protecting the net. The Oilers have allowed 36 goals in nine games. To make matters worse, that high-flying offensive unit that the Oilers tote, with perhaps the two best scorers in the league, has mustered just 25 goals through their first nine contests. Surely that will change. However, is it enough to garner attention? Edmonton is 2-6-1 overall and 2-7 ATS. Didn’t expect that, did you? The Oilers are being held back tremendously by the netminding. The schedule doesn’t get any kinder to Edmonton, either, with seven of the next 10 games being road contests, with destinations like Vancouver, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina. The gross ATS performance is likely to continue for Edmonton. Additionally (if you can find them with your sportsbook), with the Oilers allowing 4 GA/G, I would hammer opponent team total overs.

Stay Away from Sharks

This is something we are all told growing up: see the fin… get out of the water. I recommend a similar approach when you see the Sharks on the sportsbook, get out now! There is nothing positive you can say about this team. Through their first 10 games, they are 0-9-1 and have scored just 10 goals. 1 GF/G a game… San Jose is 1-9 ATS, with their only cover coming against Colorado in a shootout loss. They have demoralizing losses through their first few games of the campaign, as well such as a 10-1 loss at home to Vancouver, 6-0 loss in Tampa Bay, and a 5-1 loss to the Predators. Their goalies are allowing a combined 4.40 GA/G, and San Jose has a -35-point differential through just the first 10 games. Stay away, this is a losing game. The only, and I mean only, thing to consider is to play the under. The under has hit in seven games for San Jose largely because their offense is managing just one goal a game. So, if they play another poor scoring team, the under may be an option, but their goaltending is that bad that a scoring team like Edmonton, Vegas, or Vancouver would have me steering clear of the under.

Vancouver Igniting the Ice Amid Hot Start

Everyone knows Vancouver can score, but perhaps no one anticipated they would sit atop the league. Through their first 10 games, the Canucks have tallied 46 goals, which is three more than second place Vegas (who has played one additional game). With 15 points, thanks to a 7-2-1 record, the Canucks are second in Pacific Division behind Vegas. What is even more impressive is that this team is 9-1 ATS thus far. In their seven wins, Vancouver is averaging 5.71 GF/G, which shows that wins usually mean the offense has exploded. G Thatcher Demko has been a huge compliment for the Canucks offense, as he is allowing just 1.79 GA/G in his seven appearances, bosting a .940 SV%. It also helps to have three players in the top five in the league in points. Elias Pettersen is second in the league with 19 points, while Quinn Hughes and J.T. Miller are tied for fourth with 16. Brock Boeser sits right outside the top 10 with 13 points on the year. This team has plenty of firepower, making the team total (again, if you can find it) over a very attractive option night in and night out. On the nights Demko is in the net, the puck-line might be a good choice as well, especially if he can continue to limit opponents to less than two goals a game.

Free Pick for Saturday – Los Angeles Kings at Philadelphia Flyers (2-Unit Play, LAK -1.5, +145 Puckline)

The Flyers are playing the second of back-to-back games, and paired with the injury to Carter Hart, the Flyers will likely look to Cal Petersen, who has yet to appear in a game this season. Petersen allowed 3.75 GA/G in 10 games last year. Meanwhile Los Angeles is averaging 4.20 GF/G, and G Cam Talbot has been phenomenal for the Kings thus far allowing just 2.41 GA/G. The Kings are also 5-0 on the road this season. And with the third string goalie in for the Flyers, I expect a satisfying cover in this one.

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