Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 11/11/2023

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/10/2023

Expert NHL handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Trevor Moore

It’s time for another NHL Friday roundup. Last week we thought the Sharks were doomed, but don’t look now but San Jose has now won back-to-back games and no longer sit alone at the bottom of the league standings as Edmonton finds themselves in a peculiar spot with just five points thus far. After being mentioned in last week’s article, Edmonton went 0-3 with a -8 goal-differential this last week and now sit at 2-9-1. I hope you have caught on by now, but the Canucks are a good team that may end up being great. Since last week’s mention, they are 3-0 ATS, still lead the league in goals, and have allowed the second least number of goals this season. I would still endorse fading Edmonton, while backing Vancouver let’s take a look at four more notable betting trends for the week ahead.

Keep Your Eyes on the Pens

It’s a Waddle Warning right now, don’t run quite yet. Pittsburgh has defined the word underachiever so far this season. After a noisy, league best, offseason Pittsburgh has had a tough time really getting going. They started very slow, going 3-6 in their first nine games and matched that performance ATS. For a team with a big offensive addition, they averaged less than three GF/G as the Penguins totaled just 25 goals in their first nine contests. Pittsburgh has been underperforming on the Power Play as well this season ranking in the bottom third of the league as they cash in on just 17.1% of their attempts with the man advantage. However, Pittsburgh may be trending in the right direction. In a small sample size of three games, the Penguins look like a different team. A team that has finally thawed and is ready to go. The Penguins are 3-0 in their last three contests and have notched 16 goals in this span (64% of their total in the first nine games). All three contests were road games, but one of those games was an easy win over the Sharks. After a sputtering start, the Penguins may have found their groove. Their matchups over the next week include Buffalo, @ CBJ, and New Jersey so it may be time to back the Pens.

Dallas Special Teams Stars

This is a good Dallas team. They are 8-3-1 and lead the Central Division. However, there are two things to pay attention to that will tell the story for the Stars as the season unfolds. Dallas’ four losses are to playoff teams including home losses to Boston and Toronto and road losses to Vegas and Vancouver. Dallas has eight wins, but their best win is a road stomping of a slow starting Penguins. Dallas takes care of business against the weaker teams, but they have yet to pick up a win of any weight. But there may be a significant piece to the puzzle that Dallas has yet to put down. They have been awful on the Power Play. Like San Jose Sharks awful. Dallas has cashed in on only 9.1% of their Power Play chances which is tied for the third worst mark in the league. This is just a year removed from where Dallas ranked 5th in the NHL with a 25% success rate on the man advantage. The good news is Dallas doesn’t look a whole lot different than last year’s roster and this is surely something they will correct going forward. Fixing this will lead to more competitive games against fellow playoff titans. If they don’t figure it out, it may be worth fading Dallas when they play the upper third of the league.

Kings are Road Warriors

The Kings are putting together a nice start to the season and have kept the gap close between them and Vegas. One of the biggest factors of the Kings success this season is their dominant road performance. They are 7-0 on the road this season with a +21-goal differential. They have also covered the puck-line in all seven of those road games. G Cam Talbot has been incredible this season. Through 10 appearances, he is 7-2-1 and has allowed just 2.03 GA/G and oh by the way he has been the one in the net for all seven road games. On the flip side, the Kings are just 1-2-1 at home so far but their home games have been against the likes of Colorado, Carolina, Boston, Vegas, and Pittsburgh. Their lone home win came against Arizona. Unfortunately, the Kings are at home in six of their next eight games but keep your eyes on the upcoming four game road trip that starts in Columbus on December 5th.

Time to Reign for the Rangers?

The Rangers are just 6-7 ATS but are 10-2-1 overall and have a nice lead in the Metro division with 21 points. The Rangers are 8-1 in their last nine games with that one loss coming in a shootout on the road against the Minnesota Wild. The Rangers are one of just three teams in the league that have yet to allow more than 30 goals (BOS and VAN) as they carry a +15 goal-differential through their first 13 contests. The teams netminding has been unreal. Lead by Igor Shesterkin and reinforced by Jonathan Quick and Louis Domingue, the Rangers rank third in GA/G at just 2.08 and have a .924 SV% which is good for 5th best in the NHL. The offense at even strength has been mediocre, but the special teams has been a nice compliment to their premier goalie play. The Rangers are second overall on the ice in PP% with a 35.7% mark, behind only the Devils. On the other side, they carry a PK% of 86.4% which is tied for the 7th best. LW Artemi Panarin has been a big reason why their Power Play has been so successful as 10 of his 22 points have come on the man advantage. Panarin’s 22 points are the third best in the league. All eyes were on Carolina, Toronto and Boston, but perhaps its time to recognize that this Rangers team is a force to be reckoned with.

Free Pick for Saturday – Columbus Blue Jackets @ Detroit Red Wings (2-Unit Play, DET -1.5 +126)

In their first meeting in Columbus, the Red Wings took care of business and won 4-0. Now having to travel to for the second of a back-to-back the Blue Jackets are in worse standing than in the first matchup. Detroit has been trending down lately, but overall, this is a much improved team from a year ago and will likely make the playoffs. After going 2-6 over their last eight games against better competition, Detroit will be ready for a statement win to get back on track. CBJ’s offense is almost non-existent as they average just 2.62 GF/G and I think the Red Wings will come out with another big win over inferior Columbus.

Last Week- LA Kings -1.5 +145 - Cashed

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 2:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 11/11/2023

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