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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Friday Free Pick for 12/29/2023

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/28/2023

Expert NHL handicapping roundup and Friday free pick Connor Bedard Chicago Blackhawks

Due to upcoming holiday, our Friday Round-Up is being up to Thursday this week. Thanks to the Christmas Break, we have had limited action since last week’s Round-Up. Last night was the return to the ice for almost all the teams, and we saw some teams light up the scoreboard. Boston didn’t miss a beat as they took down the Sabres, the Penguins crushed the Isles in New York with a big 7-0 win, and the Knights fell to the Ducks after Anaheim’s four goal opening period. Now let’s take a look at some more trends that have been making some money.

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More Scoring in the West

We all know just how electric the Canucks’ and Avs’ offense are, but now you can add Vegas and Dallas to that list as well. Well kind of. Over their last 10 games each, the Knights and Stars have combined to hit the Over 17 times. Both teams are known more for their gritty style of play and stout netminding, it is interesting to see them both participate in high-scoring games. So, is it the offense or is it the fact that both clubs have had some injuries to their goalies? For Dallas the answer is both. Jake Oettinger is week-to-week after suffering a lower body injury. Scott Wedgewood started each of the last six games for the Stars. He has done well as the Stars have gone 4-2 in the stretch, but every single game has been a one-goal contest. The offense has done enough to give Wedgewood the room he needs to get the win. Over the last 10, the Stars have averaged 3.6 GF/G while allowing 3.2 GA/G. As for Vegas, the answer still is both, but the offense has really woken up over the last 10. Vegas has averaged 4.1 GF/G. They have missed Adin Hill, but Logan Thompson has done enough in his absence to keep the Knights going forward. New backup Jini Patera has helped the over hit, as he has allowed 13 goals in his three starts. When Oettinger and Hill return and are 100%, expect more low-scoring games, but if the offenses have awoken both of these teams will become even more dangerous down the stretch.

ATS Locks

Every other week I work on an article discussing who is hot and who is not ATS. Thanks to the Christmas Break, we can reset a little bit and take a broader look at the success these teams are having in terms of covers. However, if you have followed along, you know the teams that make the list just about every edition, so let’s take a look at it from a different angle. I broke it down even further to see who the best is at covering at home and on the road.

When it comes to defending home ice, the best team at covering is the Vancouver Canucks. They have covered in 14 of their 17 home games this season, which is an insane stat. The Canucks surprised everyone at their success to start the year, but now the surprise has been maintained as Vancouver looks like they are the most complete team in hockey. They lead the league in GF/G with 3.86, while sitting in 2nd in the NHL in GA/G allowing just 2.51 as well as 2nd in the league with a .918 SV%. Not only do they look good on both sides of the ice, but they also have some star power budding at the top of their roster. J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes, and Elias Pettersson all have 43 or more points, while Brock Boeser leads the team with 24 goals. As for their netminders? They may not be as established as the Swayman/Ullmark tandem in Boston, but Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith have been solid all year, which has been the biggest factor for Vancouver’s success.

On the road, there is no better team ATS than the Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers are 15-2 ATS on the road this season. The Flyers have been the biggest surprise of the season thus far. Owen Tippett has really emerged this season and has been a huge help, while the goaltending has been phenomenal as well. Everyone is still wondering how long Philly can sustain the run, but they deserve a lot of credit and have been extremely profitable ATS. They rank in the top 10 in GA/G and PK%, further defining this team’s grit and aggressiveness, keeping the games low scoring and close.

ATS Fades

So, we have seen who is hot, so who is not?

At home, there is no better team to fade than the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have gone an abysmal 1-17 ATS at home this season. Overall, they are 7-26 ATS this season, making them a good fade night in and night out. The goaltending was a big problem early on, but it has improved a little bit lately. Adding to the netminding problem is the lack of depth on this squad. Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt have combined to account for nearly 27% of the team’s points. D Dougie Hamilton absence’s definitely hurts this team, but this is a huge reverse on a very successful Devils team a year ago.

As for the road games, it is best to fade Carolina ATS. They are 6-14 ATS on the road this season, and they have looked like a totally different team away from home. G Pyotr Kochetkov has been a huge help for this team, especially in Frederik Andersen’s absence and Antti Raanta’s struggles. Kochetkov has allowed 2.65 GA/G and has now surpassed Raanta on the depth chart as the starting netminder. Perhaps this change is what the Hurricanes needed.

Free Friday Pick- Chicago Blackhawks @ Dallas Stars – Chicago +1.5 +118

I like this number because of the Stars goalie situation. Oettinger likely won’t be in the net, and the Stars are awful ATS at home. With Scott Wedgewood expected to be in the net, the Stars are going to give up some goals. The Blackhawks offense has been much better as well, as they have averaged 3 GF/G over their last five, which is a huge improvement compared to their season average of 2.41 GF/G. Blackhawks keep it close.

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