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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 12/23/2023

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/22/2023

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup for Saturday with free pick Isaiah Stevens Colorado State

Let’s take a look at some money-making trends around the nation in CBB. We have seen an insane number of upsets this season as nonconference play has been surreal. We have had teams rise and fall out of the No. 1 spot, while teams like Michigan State have just been beaten up to start the year. We are just a few games away from conference play, so let’s look at some talking points from nonconference play so far.

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Who Loses 1st?

At the time of this article, there are four teams who remain undefeated in college basketball: Houston, James Madison, Nevada, and Ole Miss. Three of the four remaining unbeatens are ranked, as the Cougars tops the list ranked 4th, James Madison ranks 20th, Ole Miss sits at 25th, and Nevada is getting some votes. There is no debate that Houston is the best team on the list. However, do they fall before the others? JMU will be playing against Morgan State, and Ole Miss will be tipping off with Southern Miss before this article comes out, but they will both win. So, who loses first? Nevada. Nevada plays their next game against TCU, and I do not think they will beat the Horned Frogs. As for the other three, Houston is the best team but plays in the toughest conference, while Ole Miss plays in a decent conference, while JMU will run the table in the Sun Belt. As it stands now, JMU does not play a top 25 team the rest of the season, while Ole Miss travels to No. 8 Tennessee on January 6, and Houston will have to play Kansas and Texas twice as well as BYU, TCU, and Oklahoma. Nevada loses first, and JMU will be the last unbeaten to fall.

I was Right About the Rams

Before we kicked off the 2023/24 campaign, I wrote about the Colorado State Rams being a potential dark horse this season, and I was right. The Rams have not only shown they belong in the tourney, but they are also 10-1 and ranked 16th in the country. They have a bad loss to Saint Mary’s, but other than that they have picked up solid wins against Creighton, Washington, and Colorado. G Isaiah Stevens is one of the most underrated players in the country and deserves some attention. He leads the team with 17.5 PPG, and he also leads the team with 7.4 APG, which is the 4th best mark in the country. Colorado St. is a deep team behind Stevens, as three other Rams are averaging over 12 PPG. The Rams are on the perimeter on both sides as they have a +7.3% 3pt differential. The Rams will have to fight off Nevada, but the Mountain West is theirs to lose, and this team has what it takes to make a run in March and create some madness. The Rams are 7-3 ATS as well, which will only get better as their conference competition is not as good.

Pay Attention to Memphis

It’s time to pay attention to the Tigers, and in a positive light. After years of negativity and underperforming, the Tigers are rolling. They do have two losses, but they were to Villanova and a tough road loss to Ole Miss. F David Jones has been incredible for the Tigers, as he is averaging 20.8 PPG, which ranks 14th in the country, and he also leads the team with 6.3 RPG. They are on a three-game win streak, all against ranked opponents. They beat TAMU in College Station and have victories over Clemson and Virginia. The Tigers also beat Arkansas earlier in the year. After going 4-1 against ranked opponents thus far, Memphis has a favorable schedule the rest of the way, as the only ranked team is a home and road split with conference opponent FAU towards the end of the year. Memphis is also close to adding Kansas State transfer, Nae’Qwan Tomlin, who doesn’t have to sit out and averaged 10.4 PPG and 5.9 RPG a year ago. This is a solid team that’s about to get even better and could dethrone the Owls for the best team in the AAC.

Arkansas Highs

If you like high-scoring games, then turn your attention to the state of Arkansas, where points are more than plentiful. Between the Arkansas Razorbacks and Arkansas–Pine Bluff, there have been 19 Overs in 21 contests. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has had the over hit in all of their games so far this season, while the Razorbacks have seen the over hit in 10 of their 12 games. The Lions are averaging 86.9 PPG, which ranks 11th in the nation, while the Razorbacks are averaging 80.3 PPG, which ranks 70th, obviously not as high, but well cemented in the top third of the nation. What makes overs even likelier for the Lions? Well not only are they 11th in the country in scoring, but they also give up more PPG than anyone else in the nation. The Lions are allowing an average of 89.3 PPG, and their game totals have averaged over 175 PPG… crazy. The Razorbacks aren’t much better, as their defense ranks 281st in the country as they allow 75.3 PPG, meaning their games sit around a total of 155 PPG. You can also add Little Rock to that list, as the Trojans have hit the over in nine of their 13 games this season. Arkansas St hurts the total as they have had only three overs in 12 games, but as a state Arkansas has hit the over in 31 of 46 contests and 28 of 34 if you remove the Red Wolves.

Saturday Free Pick- Ole Miss @ Southern Miss, Ole Miss -10 -110

I like the Rebs to cover in this one and win big in Biloxi. The Rebs have not performed particularly well ATS this season but have really turned it on over their last few games and are coming off a big 21-point win over Troy. Southern Miss has some silly losses this season, including three double-digit losses to Akron, South Dakota St, and McNeese St. The Golden Eagles have a solid win over UAB, but that is the extent of their resume. Ole Miss will need to work hard to control the boards in this one, but they shoot is nearly 4% better than Southern Miss and the offense has more weapons. The Rebs will destroy their instate opponent.

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