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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup + Friday Free Pick for 12/29/2023

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/28/2023

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup Keion Brooks Jr.

With the holiday, we are pushing up our Friday Round-up series to Thursday this week. We are coming off the holiday break, and teams are back to practicing, with some in action tonight. As it stands now, Purdue sits atop the country, while Kansas, Houston, and Arizona round out the top four and other No. 1 seeds in Bracketology. The three remaining unbeatens mentioned in last week’s article still remain, as Houston, James Madison, and Ole Miss have yet to lose this season. With little action to cover from the last article, let’s take a look at some notes around the league.

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Team of the Week- #25 Providence Friars

Providence put together a better-than-expected nonconference performance as they returned from the break sitting at 11-2, with a big 15-point win against Marquette highlighting the stretch. Their two losses were not bad, as they fell to Kansas St. by three while the other loss was to No. 12 Oklahoma. The Friars play in one of the toughest conferences in the country but are showing signs that they can compete. Now ranking No. 25, Providence joins three other Big East members in the Top 25, with Villanova knocking on the door. Providence wins their games by playing tough defense. They rank 2nd in the Big East in PPG allowed and opponents are shooting just 38%, which ranks the defense 17th in that category. Providence’s +8.8% in FG% ranks 2nd in the Big East, which is also good for 26th in the nation. On offense, G Devin Carter leads the way with 16.8 PPG with F Bryce Hopkins right on his tail with 16.3 PPG. F Josh Odduro is the only other Friar that averages double-digit points with 14.1 PPG and is one of the better three-point threats on this team shooting over 42% from deep. This is a tough group that will put more teams on upset alert as they suffocate the offense. With five remaining games against Top 25 opponents, we will see if this team can continue to fly high.

As we near the calendar turn, it is a good time for us to begin to pay attention to the bubble teams.

First Four Out

Now that nonconference play is over, resumes start to get reviewed as the cross-conference competition has ceased and all teams now look to beat up their conference opponents, except for Chicago St., which somewhat limits any enhancements to the form. Washington, Nebraska, Butler, and Utah St. are the first four teams out of the tournament as of now. So, let’s compare resumes between the four and see who gets in:

Washington Huskies – 8-3 Key Wins- #7 Gonzaga Key Games- @ #4 Arizona, h/a Colorado

The Huskies have a fine resume heading into conference play, but they missed out on some big wins early on. Beating Gonzaga gives them the best win of these four teams. However, now, with only one remaining game against a ranked opponent, their margin for error is very slim. Their three losses come by a combined 15 points against formidable opponents in #20 Colorado St., 12-1 Nevada, and an OT loss to 10-2 SDSU. They have the playmaker in F Keion Brooks Jr., who is averaging over 20 PPG, they just need a clean stretch through the PAC-12.

Odds to win PAC-12- +3500

Nebraska Cornhuskers – 10-2 Key Wins- Michigan St., Kansas State Key Games- #1 Purdue, @ #11 Illinois, h/a #23 Wisconsin

Nebraska has quietly put together a nice resume thus far, as they picked up some big wins against Michigan St. and Kansas State. The losses weren’t great, as they were completely dismantled against Creighton, losing by 29 to the Bluejays, while the other loss was an 11-point spill against Minnesota. Unlike Washington, they have plenty of chances to enhance their resume as the Big Ten is loaded with tough competition and plenty of ranked teams. This is a deep squad, with four guys averaging 13 or more PPG, and F Rienk Mast does a great job crashing the boards as his 9.9 RPG ranks 17th in the country. However, I think it is likely this team will lose quite a bit more and will end up missing the tournament.

Odds to win Big Ten- +3500

Butler Bulldogs – 10-3 Key Wins- Penn St., Texas Tech Key Games- h/a #5 UCONN, h/a #10 Marquette, h/a #22 Creighton, #25 Providence, h/a Villanova

Plenty of opportunity for the Bulldogs as they play in one of the deepest conferences in the country. However, that will be meaningless as this team will fall off as they emerge themselves in this absolute gauntlet of a conference schedule. While their three losses are to ranked opponents, teams on the bubble need to take down some members of the Top 25. From February 2 to February 17, the Bulldogs will play five consecutive games against Top 25 opponents. Likely to lose most of those, they will also be vulnerable to a slip up here and there as they get worn out by the better competition. This team will fall off the radar and be in the lower half of the conference standings by the season’s end.

Odds to win Big East- +6000

Utah State Aggies- 12-1 Key Wins- None Key Games- h/a #15 Colorado St., h/a Nevada, h/a New Mexico

This is another team I do not foresee cracking the bracket in March. The Mountain West is weak. And outside of Colorado St., there is really no one that scares opponents. Winning the conference is seemingly the only way for the Aggies to make it, especially after an underwhelming nonconference lineup. Despite what the record tells you, this team is not very good. They played in a lot of close games that could have gone the other way, and if they did, we would not even be talking about Utah State. They will lose to the Rams both times and will likely need a miracle run in conference tournament play and hope for the AQ.

Odds to win MWC- +900

Last Four In

Now let’s look at the other side. New Mexico, Kansas St., Texas, and Virginia Tech are the Last Four in. Will they stay?

New Mexico Lobos – 11-1 Key Wins- None Key Games- h/a #15 Colorado St., h/a Nevada, h/a Utah St.

Repeat of the Aggies section. No good wins and only here because their lone loss was to a ranked Saint Mary’s team. Other than that, New Mexico had a very soft nonconference schedule, and their conference slate isn’t loaded with tough competition. The Lobos margin for error is small, and they would need to split with the Rams and/or make a run in the conference tournament. New Mexico might win the NIT though.

Odds to win MWC- +270

Kansas State Wildcats – 9-3 Key Wins- Providence, Villanova Key Games- @ #17 Baylor, h/a #2 Kansas, @ #3 Houston, #12 Oklahoma, h/a #14 BYU, @ #21 Texas, TCU

The Wildcats had a silly loss to Nebraska. However, other than that, they played pretty solid basketball. The other two losses came against ranked opponents in USC and Miami, and they will have plenty of chances to take down some Top 25 opponents as their big 12 schedule is loaded with them. Eight of their 19 remaining games are against ranked opponents, which means the Wildcats will need to win a few and remain unscathed against the 11 lesser teams. Unfortunately, with the loaded schedule I think the Wildcats miss out on tourney time.

Odds to win B12- +3000

Texas Longhorns – 9-2 Key Wins- None Key Games- h/a #17 Baylor, h/a #12 Oklahoma, @ #14 BYU, h/a #3 Houston, @ #2 Kansas, @ TCU

The opportunity is in front of the Longhorns, but they have yet to live up to the hype. In their two games against ranked opponents, Texas lost both by an average of 15.5, as the defense looked nonexistent. They will have their chances to get some ranked wins on their resume, and they have the guys to do it. Max Abmas knows what it takes to win and win in March. Abmas is averaging 17.7 PPG, while four other Longhorns are averaging over 11 PPG. This is a deep squad that can get hot and be in the conversation as long as they can play with the tougher competition. I like Texas to finish strong and sit comfortably in the bracket.

Odds to win B12- +1700

Virginia Tech Hokies – 9-3 Key Wins- None Key Games- #18 Clemson, #16 Duke, @ #9 UNC

Take the Hokies off your bracket. They may be in as of now, but I do not think this is a tournament-caliber club. They have three bad losses, including a 34-point loss to FAU, and did not pick up any impressive wins. The conference schedule is rather weak, with only three ranked opponents. Miami and UVA are also on the schedule, which could prove tough for the Hokies. Take them out and put Washington in.

Odds to win ACC- +2200

Free Friday Pick- Northern Illinois Huskies @ Iowa Hawkeyes – Iowa -16.5 -110

Neither one of these teams plays much defense, but the Hawkeyes have far more weapons than the Huskies do. Iowa has scored 80 or more in their last three games, while the Huskies have scored no more than 71 points against their last four D1 opponents. Iowa does a good job moving the ball around to create good looks and should control the boards in this one. Iowa wins big and gets the cover.

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