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Expert Bowl Game Handicapping: Player and Coaching Uncertainty

by Joey House - 12/7/2023

Expert bowl game handicapping: player and coaching uncertainty Kyle McCord Ohio State

In 2016, when LSU RB Leonard Fournette and Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey elected not to play in their respective bowl games, it was met with equal parts admiration and admonishment. The trickle of opt-outs each year has grown into a flood of players passing up the chance to play for their university one more time. Adding to this deluge is the first round of the transfer portal and players' widespread changing of teams. As if the missing players weren't enough, some coaches have taken better jobs elsewhere and may not be coaching their previous team over the holidays.

Handicapping is challenging enough with all of the pieces in place. Removing different components makes a difficult task that much harder. Luckily, at Doc’s, we have been closely monitoring all of the developing situations to give bettors the best chance to navigate the murky waters of the bowl season.

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Coaches Leaving

Tulane- The Green Wave lost their bid for a NE6 Bowl Game when they lost to SMU in the American Athletic Conference title game. The next day, Houston named Tulane's Willie Fritz their head coach. Tulane's offensive coordinator, Slade Nagle, will be the interim coach for the Military Bowl against Virginia Tech.

Duke- Upsetting Clemson on the opening weekend and reeling off five wins to start the season almost guaranteed Duke's Mike Elko a better job. Assistant head coach Trooper Taylor will call the plays in the Birmingham Bowl versus Troy.

Oregon State- Former Beaver QB-turned-HC Jonathan Smith left Oregon State to take the Michigan State position. Luckily, the Beavers had their replacement in-house, promoting defensive coordinator Trent Bray to guide Oregon State in the Sun Bowl against Notre Dame.

James Madison- Curt Cignetti, the leader of the FBS-newcomers James Madison, is leaving the program to take over the reins at Indiana. However, he received permission from IU's athletic director to coach the Dukes in their first bowl game, the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl against Air Force.

Unavailable Players

We're only three days into the most recent transfer portal, and well over 50 players have already submitted their names. We'll look at a few of the teams that could be most affected and how that translates into handicapping.

No. 7 Ohio State- The Buckeyes play No. 9 Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. To quote the great bard Shakespeare, "Something is rotten in the state of Ohio." O.K., I paraphrased a bit, but something must be wrong in that program, as at least 12 players have entered the transfer portal so far. The most crucial player in that group is starting QB Kyle McCord. He threw 92.8% of the passes for the Buckeyes, with backup Devin Brown going 12-22 for 197 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. Ohio State RB Chip Trayanum, the second-leading rusher who had the go-ahead touchdown run against Notre Dame, has also entered the portal. While it's widely believed that he'll forego his last year, no official word yet has come from Marvin Harrison, Jr. Oddsmakers have already adjusted the line, as Ohio State opened as a 6.5-point favorite and now is a 2.5-point dog. The QB race this past preseason in Columbus was very close, so the Buckeyes might not be as bad off as they appear from a skill angle. A more pressing concern is the state of the program if that many disgruntled kids want to transfer. If Harrison plays, I like Ohio State, plus the points, as the Buckeyes' scoring defense, ranked second in the country, experienced minimal losses, and no starters.

No. 12 Oklahoma- One of the many teams to lose their starting QB, Oklahoma must face No. 14 Arizona in the Alamo Bowl with backup QB Jackson Arnold, who's thrown 24 passes this season. However, besides QB Dillion Gabriel, the Sooners will miss their second-leading rusher in RB Tawee Walker. The combination of the defections has caused the line to move from Arizona being favored by a point and a half to three-and-a-half-point favorites. I lean towards the Arizona side here, as they have lost only two secondary players that didn't see much action this season.

Coastal Carolina- Few teams lost more than the Chanticleers headed into their matchup against San Jose State in the Hawaii Bowl. QB Grayson McCall, their number one guy until he got injured in mid-season, is gone, as is QB Jarrett Guest, who split time with another Coastal Carolina QB, who is staying, Ethan Vasko. RB CJ Beasley, second in the team in rushing attempts, and second amongst running backs for yards gained, is also gone. WR Jared Brown, second among receivers in catches and yards, entered the portal. The second-leading tackler, linebacker JT Killen, left as well. All told, there are 12 Chanticleers so far that have decided to change programs, tied with Ohio State and NC State for the most among bowl teams. All of these defections have slightly affected the spread, as the Spartans opened at -7 and fluctuated between -9.5 and -10. I was leaning towards San Jose State anyway and am O.K. with laying a few extra points.

It is important to remember that the portal has only been open since Dec. 4, so it's possible that more players could decide to change programs. Make sure you visit Doc's to get the latest information before making your wager.

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