Expert Bowl Game Handicapping: Geographical Advantages

by Joey House - 12/11/2023

Bowl game handicapping Billy Bowens Boise STate

One of the factors that goes into handicapping regular season football games is the home-field advantage. A Penn State "White-Out" can be so loud that the opposing offense either burns a time-out or gets flagged for delay of game. While bowl games remove advantages like that, they present different challenges with the location that must be considered. In this article, we'll look at some of these factors and how to use them to our advantage.

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Distance

Every school arrives at the game location well before the actual kickoff, so travel fatigue should be minimal. Distance affects the fan following more than the players. While some people use a bowl game as an excuse for a wonderful winter vacation, it's common sense that bowl games closer to the participating school will draw more crowd backing.

Starco Brands LA Bowl Sat. Dec. 16th, 7:30 pm ABC/ESPN+

UCLA (7-5) vs. Boise State (8-5)

The first game where a team has a decided distance advantage is the LA Bowl between Boise State and UCLA. This bowl game, held in Inglewood, CA, is virtually a home game for the Bruins, while it's roughly an 850-mile trip for the Broncos. UCLA is currently a 2.5-point favorite and a 49.5 total.

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl Tue. Dec. 19th, 9:00 pm ESPN/ESPN+

UTSA (8-4) vs. Marshall (6-6)

The Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl, played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, features a matchup between Marshall and University of Texas-San Antonio. While it is a hike from San Antonio to Frisco (about 300 miles), that pales compared to the 1,000 miles that the Thundering Herd must travel. UTSA is currently a 9-point favorite and the Over/Under is 54.5.

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl Thur. Dec. 21st, 8:00 pm ESPN/ESPN+

South Florida (6-6) vs. Syracuse (6-6)

The RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl will be played at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida. The Bulls of South Florida have a 230-mile trip to the site, which is even further south than their school. Syracuse fans will welcome the chance to escape a brutal upstate New York winter momentarily, but they must travel 1,381 miles to see their Orangemen play. USF is a 3.5-point underdog with a total set at 60.5.

68 Ventures Bowl Sat. Dec. 23rd, 7:00 pm ESPN/ESPN+

South Alabama (6-6) vs. Eastern Michigan (6-6)

Two bowl games are played in the home stadium of one of the participating teams. The 68 Ventures Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, is the home of South Alabama, and they play host to Eastern Michigan. The Jaguars are currently 16-point favorites and the total is 47.5-points.

Autozone Liberty Bowl Fri. Dec. 29th, 3:30 pm ESPN/ESPN+

Memphis (9-3) vs. Iowa State (7-5)

The Autozone Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tennessee, sees the Iowa State Cyclones travel to the home of the Memphis Tigers. Iowa State is has been installed as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 57.5.

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Thur. Dec. 28th, 2:15 pm ESPN/ESPN+

Miami (Florida) (7-5) vs. Rutgers (6-6)

When I first saw this, I thought it was either a joke or the latest installment in the movie series with Will Smith and Martin Lawerence. The Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl features Rutgers University in northern New Jersey, only 35 miles from Yankee Stadium in New York City, while Miami (Florida) is 1,300 miles away. The Hurricanes are favored by two with a total set at 41.5.

DIRECTV Holiday Bowl Wed. Dec. 27th, 8:00 pm FOX

No. 15 Louisville (10-3) vs. USC (7-5)

The game with the most significant mile advantage is the DirecTV Holiday Bowl. The USC Trojans faithful make the short 120-mile trip down I-5, while the fans of the Louisville Cardinals embark on a 2,070-mile trek. Louisville is currently favored by seven points and an Over/Under at 57.5 points.

Team history at the location

Even though we sometimes bet on them as adults, in reality, these teams are made up of 18- to 22-year-old young men, some of whom may be coming from small rural towns and now traveling to an exciting or exotic locale. The first game that comes to mind is the VRBO Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona, a suburb of Phoenix. No. 8 Oregon should be OK with this, but No. 23 Liberty University, hailing from Lynchburg, Virginia, will find the atmosphere radically different from what they're used to. This game has the biggest spread, with Oregon a 16-point favorite.

Drastic Climate Change

No, I'm not starting a political debate; I'm addressing a change in the climate that a team is used to. As a Philadelphia Eagles fan, I remember an opening game played in Dallas where the Eagles' players drank pickle juice to help with cramping. While these bowl games are at the beginning of winter, some more southern locations could see the fatigue and cramping of teams from the north. The Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl features two teams from the north, Miami (Ohio) taking on Appalachian State, who sits as a 6-point favorite. On Dec. 10, the high temperature in Orlando was 81 degrees with 80% humidity, compared to the highs in the 30s in Miami, Ohio. The aforementioned Boca Raton Bowl pits Syracuse against South Florida. Not all climate advantages feature tropic game conditions. The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl matches Georgia State and Utah State. Not only is it a significant distance advantage for the Aggies (460 to 2,170 miles), but Boise has already had snow and low temperatures nearing single digits, compared to Atlanta's lowest temperatures in the high 20s. Another factor to account for in this game is the change in elevation. There is an increase of over 1,500 feet from Atlanta, Georgia, to Boise, Idaho. Utah State plays at a higher altitude, so the change in atmosphere won't affect them. The spread is currently a pick between these two squads.

As you can see, there are different factors to account for in handicapping bowl games. The one lock you can bank on is that Doc’s will factor in everything and provide you with the tools for a successful and profitable holiday bowl season.

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Expert Bowl Game Handicapping: Geographical Advantages

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