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English Premier League Odds and Predictions for Top 4 Champions League Berth

by Spencer Toth - 2/22/2023

English Premier League odds predictions for Top 4 finish and Champions League berth Harry Kane

Top 4 Odds:

Manchester United -1000

Liverpool +150

Newcastle +150

Tottenham +175

Table:

3rd: Manchester United 49 Points, 14 Games remaining

4th: Tottenham 42 Points, 14 Games remaining

5th: Newcastle 41 Points, 15 Games remaining

8th: Liverpool 35 Points 16 Games remaining

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The race for a top 4 finish and the Champions league berth that goes with it usually comes down to the wire, and this season will be no different. English Premier League leaders Arsenal and defending champions Manchester City have all but secured their top 4 finish. Thanks to their red-hot form, Manchester United has pulled ahead, and has a comfortable 8-point gap from 5th place. Their -1000 odds are not worthy of a future that will take months to cash, leaving 3 teams vying for that 4th and final qualification spot.

Despite their 8th place status, Liverpool remain the favorites to claim their 7th successive Champions League appearance. They finished as runner-ups in the Premier League, and Champions League last season, and added their 8th FA Cup to their mantle. Jurgen Klopp has had the temperature turned up on his hot seat, after a 5-2 thrashing at Anfield to Real Madrid this week. Their +150 odds are far from their -1000 pre-season odds, and they will be right back in the mix if they put their games at hand to good use.

While some teams have failed to reach their pre-season expectations (10th place Chelsea), Newcastle have put their oil money to good use, and will likely be perennial contenders for years to come. They’ve allowed a league low 15 goals against in 23 games and have lost only 2 games all season. A stout defense has allowed a team that was +800 at the start of the season to exceed even the wildest of expectations, and they are in a great position to reach the Champions League for the first time since 2003.

Tottenham have remained in the top 4 for virtually the entire season and are led by captain Harry Kane’s 17 goals this season. Tottenham haven’t qualified for the Champions league since 2019 and will need to string together some results to cash in at +175 odds.

Three teams battling for 1 spot will ensure a tight race that comes down to the wire, and getting a solid plus money bet at this stage of the season may pay dividends in a few months’ time.

Tottenham: +175

Despite their 4th place status, Tottenham are currently projected to finish 6th in the league. They’ve scored 44 goals, which is good for 3rd in the league, but their 35 goals against have cost them valuable points, and they’ve ranked 14th in that category. Kane has put together another solid season in North London and has already matched his goal tally from last season. However, Tottenham lacks scoring depth, as no other player has more than 8 Goals + Assists in the league.

Tottenham has been able to hold onto their top 4 position for most of the season, and even saw themselves in second place through the first 11 games of the season. They used their early season success to maintain their spot in the table, as 7 wins and 7 losses in their last 15 Premier League matches is not good enough to remain in the top 4. Aging goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has made uncharacteristic errors this season, and a lack of a real identity has hurt Tottenham. Their quest for silverware in the Champions league may hinder their Premier League chances, as a busy upcoming schedule may force rotation in the squad, something a thin Spurs unit can ill afford to do.

Newcastle +150

Regardless of the final standings this season, Newcastle will be very happy with their upward trajectory this season. The 2021 takeover by Saudi Princes, the Reuben Brothers, was expected to launch Newcastle up the table in years to come, but few pundits expected this season to be the year they take that leap. On the scoresheet, there are no real standout stars. Of course, Miguel Almiron’s 10 goals have certainly helped put points on the board, but there is no mistaking the strength of this team. They’ve conceded just 15 goals this season, allowing Nick Pope to rack up 12 clean sheets in 23 starts. Kieran Trippier has fit in nicely in the back line, and Fabian Schar continues to lead a tight group at the back. Newcastle certainly have their holes. However, if they can manage to keep their defensive record intact, they put themselves in a great position to win every time they step on the field.

Liverpool: +150

Liverpool find themselves languishing in 8th place and are in danger of failing to reach the Champions League for the first time since 2016. The season got off to a woeful start, as they won just 2 games in their opening 8 matches and looked nothing like the team who went toe-to-toe with Manchester City for the better part of the last decade. The offseason departure of Sadio Mané has hindered their once fluid attack, and Mohamed Salah leads the team with just 8 goals this season. In defense, Virgil Van Dijk no longer looks like a world class defender, and Allison has made some poor errors, dropping points in the process.

Liverpool was held to a very high standard, and they’ve failed to meet those expectations. Jurgen Klopp hasn’t been able to rally his troops, but all hope is not lost. They have 2 games in hand over 4th place Tottenham, and 2 victories would pull them within 1 point of another Champions League berth. There is certainly talent on this roster, but their lack of depth has hurt them. Now that they have one foot out the door of the Champions League thanks to a 5-2 home defeat to Real Madrid, they can shift their attention back to the league, and hopefully string some wins together down the stretch.

Betting Prediction:

There are arguments to be made for all 3 of these teams, but one sticks out like a sore thumb. Tottenham have been mediocre over the last 4 months and are only still in this position thanks to some early season dominance. Kane can’t do it alone, and whenever he is unable to find the net, Tottenham have a difficult time winning matches. I know they are currently occupying the 4th place spot, but once the games level up, they will likely be dropping to 5th or 6th. A -167 pre-season ticket still has hope, but I will not be backing the Spurs at the current price.

That leaves Liverpool and Newcastle to fight for the final spot, and I have to side with the proven squad in Liverpool. Newcastle’s stellar defensive record has ensured they are never out of a game, but they also struggle to distance themselves from their foes. A 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline is very common for the Magpies, and I expect some of those 3’s to turn into 1’s in the final weeks of the season. I don’t like to use the word ‘lucky’ in sports, but some good fortune has put Newcastle in this position, and I expect their luck to run dry when it matters most.

This leaves Liverpool climbing from mid-table and finishing 4th. Now that they can focus on the league, I expect the Merseyside squad to collect valuable wins. Salah has been a shadow of his former self, but the prospect of playing twice a week for 30 straight weeks is a daunting one. The schedule is winding down. And if Liverpool can make the most of their games in hand, I expect this price to shoot into the negatives in the coming weeks. This team has proven they can win, and now that their squad depth won’t be stretched so thin, they will do exactly that. A price of +150 is very generous for Liverpool, and I’ll be betting on this team myself in the near future.

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