College Football Totals Picks Week 8: Over or Under Predictions for Saturday
Welcome to the College Football Totals article, where I analyze the totals of the college games and give out what I feel are the best plays. Using Doc's proprietary "Unit Betting System," we hope to maximize our return on investment (ROI). The standard wagering unit will be $100.
Due to unforeseen circumstances, I could not write an article last week. My picks from 2 weeks ago only went 1-3 but still eeked out a 0.6-unit profit, as I hit my 5-unit over in the Oklahoma-Texas game but missed on two 1-unit plays and a 2-unit selection. This is where Doc's "Unit Betting System" shines, allowing us to make a slight profit even though we only hit 25% of our wagers.
We have a bevy of picks this week, so without further ado...
Doc’s Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 3 Ohio State (-5.5/45.5) Sat. Noon FOX
The biggest game of the week is the first play of the day. This total has had an interesting journey, starting at 48, going down to 46.5, then rising back to 47.5 before settling back at 45.5. Penn State has gone over the total in four of its six games this year, but Ohio State has gone under five out of six contests. As I've stated previously, Penn State's offense has struggled on the road this season, scoring almost 9 points less than their season average. In the Nittany Lions' last 13 visits to The Horseshoe, the under has cashed 9 out of 13 times. It's always scary to take the under when you have two high-powered offenses, but the defenses will rule the day here. PICK: UNDER 45.5 3-units
No. 13 Ole Miss vs. Auburn (+6.5/55.5) Sat. 7:00 pm ESPN
Mississippi head coach Lane Kiffin is known for his offensive prowess, and the 2023 Rebels live up to that moniker. They're 8th in the country in scoring with 41.7 ppg and only 60th in defensive scoring with 23.8 ppg allowed. That, folks, is an average of 65.5 total points in Mississippi's six games this season. Auburn checks in at 27.7 ppg scored and 23.2 ppg allowed. Mississippi is 1-6 SU against Auburn, adding to the motivation to reap a little retribution. I think Auburn will keep it close, but it will be in a shootout fashion. Nine of the Tigers' last 13 contests have gone over the total. In addition, Ole Miss has gone over four out of its previous six road games. PICK: OVER 55.5 3-units
No. 16 Duke vs. No. 4 Florida State (-14.5/49.5) Sat. 7:30 pm ABC
The Blue Devils have the 4th-best scoring defense in the country, giving up only 9.8 ppg. Florida State has the 7th-best scoring offense in the nation, averaging 42.2 ppg. Something has to give. Duke's QB, Riley Leonard, suffered a high-ankle sprain against Notre Dame two games ago and is listed as questionable. However, even when he's in there, the Duke passing game is anything but explosive. They have six passing TDs in six games. FSU has a stout run defense, giving up 141 yards per game and 1.3 TDs per four quarters. The under has cashed four times in the last six meetings between these two schools. Make it five times after Saturday's contest. PICK: UNDER 49.5 2-units
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas (-6.5/48) Sat. Noon ESPN
Mississippi State is averaging 30.2 ppg on offense and 29.5 ppg on defense. Arkansas is slightly worse on offense, at 29.9 ppg, and better on defense at 25.1 ppg. The over is 4-1 in the Bulldogs' last five games and four out of the previous five games against the Razorbacks. Games played at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium tend to be high scoring, with over going 12-5 in the last 17 home Razorback games. The past ten matchups between these two schools have seen an average score of 60.5. PICK: OVER 48 4-units
Season Total: 9-8 52.9%
Profit: +13.0 units
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