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College Football Totals Picks Championship Week: Over or Under Predictions for Saturday

by Joey House - 12/1/2023

College football totals picks Championship Week Quinn Ewers Texas

Welcome to the College Football Totals article, where I analyze the totals of the college games and give out what I feel are the best plays. Using Doc's proprietary "Unit Betting System," we hope to maximize our return on investment (ROI). The standard wagering unit will be $100.

There was a lot of speculation about the new clock rule changes and how they would affect scoring. So, I compared the top 10 scoring teams from this season to the two since the COVID-19 season in 2020. What I found was interesting. In 2023, the average scoring of the ten best offenses produced an average of 46.4 ppg, and six teams averaged more than 40. In 2022, that average was 46.1, and again, six teams scored 40+ each game. 2021 the scoring was 40.8, and five teams averaged 40 or more points per game. For the year, 432 games (51.3%) went over, and 410 (48.7%) went under. This information could be dynamite in the hands of the "squares," who might try to use this trend for the vindication of always betting the over.

Doc’s Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Big 12 Championship

No. 18 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas (-15.5/54.5) Sat. Noon ABC

We won't have to wait long to see fireworks on Saturday when these two teams meet for the Big 12 Championship. The Longhorns were dealt a severe blow three games ago when they lost their leading rusher, Jonathon Brooks, to a torn ACL late in a 29-26 victory over TCU. Brooks averaged 113.9 yards per game with ten rushing touchdowns. However, 5-star freshman C.J. Baxter filled in admirably in his first start against Iowa State, rushing for 117 yards. In last week's rivalry game against Texas Tech, Baxter was injured after nine carries and 45 yards. Sophomore RB Jaydon Blue became the next man up and went for 121 yards on ten carries with a touchdown. Baxter is not on any of Texas's injury reports, but obviously, that is a situation to monitor.

Whoever carries the ball for the Longhorns should have great success against an Oklahoma State defense that allows 172.0 yards a game. The Cowboys scoring defense is ranked 77th in the nation at 27.3 ppg. They score at a 30.2 ppg clip and will need more than that if they entertain any ideas of winning the game. Both teams are comparable in passing: Oklahoma State at 258 yards a game and Texas with 261. The bad news for Oklahoma State is that the Longhorns are only allowing 17.2 ppg, which is the 12th in the country.

This game has a definite OVER vibe to it. The Cowboys last seven games have gone 5-2 for the over. The Longhorns' last four games have split 2-2 on the total. The previous ten meetings between these two teams have produced, on average, 59.2 points. Texas has a faint chance of making the playoffs, which means they will try to score as many points as possible for resume-building. While Oklahoma State is porous on defense, they also have a capable attack. This game could be over the total late in the 3rd quarter. PICK: OVER 54.5 4 units

American Athletic Championship

No. 25 SMU vs No. 22 Tulane (-3.5/47.5) Sat. 4 pm ABC

The Mustangs of SMU come into this game with a very impressive resume. They're 5th in the country in scoring with 41.8 ppg and 13th in defense at 17.7. They're also 11th in total yards per game at 464.5. They failed to score 30 or more points twice this season, both games against Big 12 opponents. They've scored 50+ four times, with the most recent coming last week against Navy (59-14). They are led by sophomore QB Preston Stone, 12th in the country in QB rating 161.3.

Tulane's only blemish this season was a 17-point loss to Ole Miss in the second game of the year. Their strength is a defense that is 18th in scoring at 18.3 ppg. The Green Wave features a true freshman RB, Makhi Hughes, who has the most yards as a true freshman and is 12th overall in the nation with 1,246 yards. In AAC play, Tulane averaged 184.5 yards per game on the ground and 395 yards in total offense.

Our models are predicting this total flies over the 47.5 mark. This could present possibilities in the alternate total market, as this number is good well into the 60s—one sportsbook as an alternate total of over 51.5 at +148. Regardless of how you attack it, this game trends strongly to the over. PICK: OVER 47.5 5 units

Atlantic Coast Championship

No. 14 Louisville vs. No. 4 Florida State (-1.5/47.5) Sat. 8 pm ABC

Saturday is fantastic since you don't have to change your station to watch your bets come in since they're all on ABC. After Jeff Brohm, Louisville's "prodigal son," guided his alma mater to their first ACC Championship game, I guarantee the Cardinals' faithful wish he would have returned years sooner. Louisville has a balanced offensive attack, gaining 255.1 yards through the air and 438.6 in total offense, which is good enough for third in the ACC. Their rushing attack features junior RB Jawhar Jordan and Wisconsin transfer SR Isaac Guerendo, who together averaged 6.3 yards per carry as they gained 1,715 yards with 21 TDs. The Cardinals have a few senior starting linemen (Bryan Hudson and Willie Tyler) who are questionable for the game and should be considered. Louisville's rush defense, which gives up 96.8 yards per game, is the strength of a unit that ranks 25th in the nation with 20.0 points per game.

Everyone in the college football world knows about the season-ending injury to Florida State's sixth-year senior QB, Jordan Travis, in the game against FCS foe North Alabama. Back in 2019, Travis had transferred from Louisville, and this game would have been the fitting end to a spectacular career for the Seminoles. He's second in Florida State's passing yards with 8,644 and first among QBs in rushing yards with 1,910 yards and 31 rushing TDs. His replacement, junior Tate Rodemaker, was rather pedestrian against in-state rival Florida last week. In the Seminoles' 24-15 win, Rodemaker went 12-25 (48%) and 134 yards. On the season, he's completed 57.1% of his passes (32-56) for 510 yards and 5 TDs. While that was one of the classic rivalry games featured last week, the Gators don't have what would be considered a good defense, so those stats are somewhat troubling. Florida State's junior RB Trey Benson will be called on much more to alleviate the pressure from Rodemaker. Last week against the Gators, he ran for 95 yards and 3 TDs on 19 carries (5.0 yards per carry).

While Florida State is still holding onto the last playoff spot, it is anything but a firm grip. Many pundits are saying that due to the injury to Travis, the Noles no longer qualify as being one of the top 4 teams in the country. So, even if they win the ACC Championship, it is not certain that they'll get a playoff spot. Which means they have to win convincingly. The offense is certainly a notch or two reduced without Travis, so the defense will have to shoulder the load. Louisville's defense is also solid. The final game of the evening may be the hardest fought and, next to the Michigan-Iowa game, the lowest scoring. PICK: UNDER 47.5 2 units

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