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College Football Totals Picks Bowl Games: Over or Under Predictions for This Week

by Joey House - 12/28/2023

College football totals picks bowl games Seth Henigan Memphis Tigers

I know that many people complain about the over-saturation of bowl games, and they don't matter. I couldn't disagree more. First, they give teams an extra couple of weeks of practice and allow coaches to evaluate, under game conditions, players who will be replacing the leaving (or already left) starters. Just watch any of these games, and it's evident that they matter greatly to the players.

The totals have been entirely even in the 24 bowl games played so far: 12 over and 12 unders. It should surprise no one that a Big Ten team was involved in the lowest-scoring game of the bowl season as Northwestern defeated Utah 14-7. Kansas defeated UNLV 49-36 in the highest-scoring game. We had a solid start to the bowl season, going 2-1 and up 1.6 units.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Autozone Liberty Bowl- Dec. 29, 3:30 pm ESPN

(9-3) Memphis vs. (7-5) Iowa State (-10.5/57.5)

As always, we first need to check the player's eligibility. Memphis will be without their backup QB and kicker, plus some interior linemen, while Iowa State will be without Cartevious Norton, their second-leading rusher (343 yards, 3 TDs), and a handful of other non-starters.

Memphis comes into this bowl game with a chip on their shoulder. Despite having a far better record and the 7th-best scoring offense in the country, because they play in the Group of Five American Conference, they find themselves double-digit underdogs to a team barely above .500. The Tigers are led by 3-year starting QB Seth Henigan, who in three seasons at Memphis as thrown for over 10,000 and 75 touchdowns. They have a 1000-yard RB in Blake Watson, who is excellent out of the backfield (1045 rushing, 14 TDs on the ground, 50 receptions for 458 yards, and 3 TDs). They have a total of seven different players receiving over 200 yards.

Defensively speaking, the situation could be better, as they allow 421.3 yards passing, 253.2 of that through the air. Their scoring defense is 94th in the nation, allowing 29.0 points per game.

Iowa State is much more even-keeled, with an offense that scores 26.2 points per game (74th in the nation) and a defense that surrenders 21.7 points per game (35th). They are led by a first-year starter at QB in Rocco Becht (209-329 63.5%, 2674 yards, 20 TDs, 8 Ints). He only put up 300 yards passing twice this season, although, against the porous stop unit of Memphis, he should have more success than he's used to.

Memphis's best chance of winning this game is trying to turn it into a track meet. While Iowa State's offense seems less potent on paper, they have encountered stiffer competition throughout the season. The over has cashed in the last six games for Memphis. I look for this to be a shootout from the beginning and to soar well over the total to make a lucky seven in a row for the over.

PICK: OVER 57.5 4-units

Goodyear Cotton Bowl- Dec. 29, 8:00 pm ESPN

(10-2) No. 9 Missouri vs. (11-1) No. 7 Ohio State (-3.0/48.5)

Missouri has at least seven non-starters that will not play in the Cotton Bowl. Something seemed rotten in Ohio State, for as soon as the transfer portal opened, starting QB Kyle McCord announced his decision to enter it. This departure leaves redshirt freshman Devin Brown in charge of the high-octane Buckeye offense. The biggest question yet to be answered is whether WR Marvin Harrison Jr. will play. He has announced his decision to enter the NFL Draft in April but has yet to say if he'll play on Friday. He traveled with the team but hasn't practiced, creating an air of mystery. My gut tells me he will play and that this is just a little subterfuge conducted by Ohio State head coach Ryan Day to confuse Missouri.

The Ohio State offense will still be efficient regardless of whether he plays. Brown had battled McCord during the off-season and is more than capable of running the show. He is more of a dual-threat QB who can hurt throwing or running. RB TreVeyon Henderson has said he'll play and brings 854 yards (6.2 yards per carry) and 11 TDs to the game. Ohio State averages 32.8 points per game (32nd in the nation) and allows a measly 11.0 points (second in the Big Ten and the nation).

Missouri brings their own high-powered offense to the game, averaging 34.1 points per contest (24th) and allowing 22.3 points a game (42nd). Four-year QB Brady Cook (233-351 66.4%, 3189 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs) is in his second entire season as a starter and has improved dramatically from a season ago. He is also a dual-threat talent with only 253 yards rushing but also added eight TDs on the ground. The rushing attack is handled by RB Cody Schrader, 4th in the nation with 1,489 yards and 13 TDs. WR Luther Burden is the leading receiver with 83 receptions, 1197 yards, and eight TDs.

While Ohio State does wield the second-ranked defense, some of that comes from playing in the offensively-challenged Big Ten. In their most challenging game, against TTUN (aka Michigan), they allowed 30 points. Missouri will test the Buckeyes' defense in every way and see them allowing at least three TDs. Even if "Maserati Marv" doesn't play, Ohio State is deep at all of the skill positions and should have no problem moving the ball and scoring. I see this game landing securely in the 50s, making the over our play.

PICK: OVER 48.5 4-units

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl- Dec. 30, Noon ESPN

(10-2) No. 11 Ole Miss vs. (10-2) No. 10 Penn State (-4.5/48.5)

Ole Miss will be without the services of four backup, non-starting players. Penn State had to replace defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, who took the head coaching job at Duke. The Nittany Lions are also without defensive lineman Chop Robinson, who opted out. That stings a bit, but the Lion's front seven is excellent and easily overcome.

Ole Miss is almost a carbon copy of their conference brother Missouri, scoring-wise. They are 18th in the country on offense with 34.8 points and 41st on defense, allowing 22.3 points a game. They average 455.4 yards a contest, with 276.6 via the air. Former USC transfer QB Jaxson Dart completed his second year and improved significantly in every statistic. He went for 208-318 65.4%, 2985 yards, 20 TDs and 5 INTs. Dart is another mobile quarterback, gaining 375 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. The bulk of the rushing will be done by sophomore RB Quinshon Judkins, who exceeded the 1,000-yard mark for a second consecutive year. He rushed for 1052 yards (4.4 ypc) and 15 TDs while hauling in 21 receptions for 135 yards and one TD. The Rebels have three receivers with over 45 receptions and 730 yards, led by WR Tre Harris (47-851-8). The Rebels on defense can be concerning, as they gave up 35 or more points three times this season.

Penn State fired their OC after the Michigan loss, and the rushing attack benefited greatly, going for over 230 yards in the last two games. Sophomore QB Drew Allar completed his first regular season as a starter, going 214-350 61.1%, 2336 yards, 23 TDs, and only one INT. One of Penn State's main problems was a wide receiver room that had difficulty gaining separation from their defenders. Senior WR Keandre Lambert-Smith had 53 receptions for 673 yards and four TDs. The "Dynamic Duo" tandem of sophomore RBs Nicholas Singelton and Kaytron Allen regressed slightly from their breakthrough rookie campaign but still combined for 1553 yards and 14 rushing TDs between the two of them. "Linebacker U" once again lived up to its moniker, producing rising stars Abdul Carter and Curtis Jacobs. The Nittany Lions led the country in sacks with 49, with the missing Chop Robinson 3rd on the team with 4.0 of them.

Mississippi has an offense capable of scoring on almost any defense in the nation, and Penn State has historically had trouble with dual-threat QBs. They are going to put up points somewhere in the vicinity of 28. Penn State's Allar had so much hype coming into the season that the Penn State fans would be disappointed unless he put up Caleb William-like numbers. He has improved as the season progressed, and while he struggled away from Happy Valley's very friendly confines, he should be fine. I look for Penn State's defense to come up with a timely turnover or two, setting the Nittany Lions up with a short field. Like the game above, I see this easily going into the 50s.

PICK: OVER 48.5 4-units

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