College Bowl Game Free Picks for Games from Dec. 29-Jan. 1

by Joey House - 12/28/2023

Bowl game handicapping Drew Allar Penn State

Just like the regular season, in the blink of an eye, we're halfway done with the bowl season and soon will start the long hibernation until college football again. Next season, with the expanded playoff format, at least we'll have another week or two of college football.

We split our four games last week, going 2-2. We should be able to end the season in a winning fashion and build our bankroll for the upcoming NFL playoffs.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Autozone Liberty Bowl- Dec. 29, 3:30 pm ESPN

(9-3) Memphis vs. (7-5) Iowa State (-10.5/57.5)

As always, we first need to check the player's eligibility. Memphis will be without their backup QB and kicker, plus some interior linemen, while Iowa State will be without Cartevious Norton, their second-leading rusher (343 yards, 3 TDs), and a handful of other non-starters.

Coming out of the American Conference, Memphis is like Rodney Dangerfield: "I get no respect." The one Power 5 school they played, Missouri, defeated them 34-27 and barely failed to cover the 6.5-point spread. But make no mistake, these Groups of Five schools can ball. Memphis's offense is seventh in the nation, scoring 39.7 points per game. They feature two stud receivers with 112 receptions, 1,807 yards, and ten touchdowns between them. Their problem will not be scoring but whether they will be able to stop an Iowa State offense that, on paper, seems ordinary. Memphis's defense allows 421 yards and 29.0 points per game.

I believe they will slow up the Cyclones enough to stay within the 10.5-point spread. Their biggest loss of the season was by ten points, and Memphis has the ability to score quickly and often. Take the dog here and hang on for a wild game.

PICK: Memphis +10.5

Goodyear Cotton Bowl- Dec. 29, 8:00 pm ESPN

(10-2) No. 9 Missouri vs. (11-1) No. 7 Ohio State (-3.0/48.5)

Missouri has at least seven non-starters that will not play in the Cotton Bowl. After starting QB Kyle McCord announced his intent to enter the transfer portal, Ohio State seemed to be a sinking ship. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has announced he's entering the NFL Draft. The mystery around him, however, is whether he will play on Friday. Harrison traveled with the team but has not practiced at all. They had another wide receiver, Julian Fleming, enter the transfer portal, but he only had 26 receptions for 270 yards and no touchdowns so that that loss will be minimal.

Missouri has a very dynamic offense, with a 3,000-yard passer, a 1,400-yard rusher, and a 1,197-yard receiver. They averaged 442.9 yards and 34.1 points per game with this dangerous offensive weaponry. According to one analytical site, they had the 14th-most difficult schedule, so these stats are legitimate.

At first glance, Ohio State's situation looks terrible. While McCord had, by all accounts, a successful season, the Buckeye coaching staff must have told him they were moving in a different direction. His replacement, redshirt freshman quarterback Devin Brown, is a dual-threat quarterback, more like a Justin Fields-type passer. Ohio State head coach Ryan Day's offenses operate better with that type of quarterback, and while it's Brown's first start, Ohio State could be more dangerous on offense. Even though "Masseratti Marv" has yet to announce his status, I have a strong hunch that he'll play, at least the first half, giving Brown the homerun hitter he deserves.

The biggest question mark will be Ohio State's motivation after losing to Michigan and being knocked out of the College Football Playoffs. When that happened two years ago, the Buckeyes came out flat against a Utah team but eventually rallied for a non-covering win 48-45 as a 4-point favorite. I don't see that happening this year, however. They will be getting ready for a virtually guaranteed playoff appearance next season and will look to make a statement.

PICK: Ohio State -3

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl- Dec. 30, Noon ESPN

(10-2) No. 11 Ole Miss vs. (10-2) No. 10 Penn State (-4.5/48.5)

Ole Miss will be without the services of four backup, non-starting players. Penn State had to replace defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, who took the head coaching job at Duke. The Nittany Lions are also without defensive lineman Chop Robinson, who opted out. That stings a bit, but the Lion's front seven is excellent and easily overcome.

This game is another intriguing matchup and a chance for the Big Ten to stake its claim, from top to bottom, as the best football conference around. In the past two seasons, Penn State is 0-4 against Michigan and Ohio State. They are 21-0 against everybody else. They feature an offense that averages 35.8 points a game (20th in the nation) and gives up 18.2 points a contest (10th). They lead the country defensively in rush yards, surrendering 69.7, and have the most sacks, with 49.

Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has his offense finely tuned, averaging 34.8 points per game (18th). Defensively, they are a respectable 41st, giving up 22.3 points per contest. They can score on almost any defense but struggle to stop the higher-powered offenses.

The Nittany Lion faithful were disappointed by this season, but that's only because they set unrealistic expectations for a young, improving team. People want to knock Franklin for his failure against Michigan and Ohio State, but in the last 20 games where Penn State was favored, they are a perfect 20-0 SU and 16-3-1 ATS. Furthermore, Penn State is 8-0 ATS in their last eight games played in December. Take the better defense and lay the small spread.

PICK: Penn State -4.5

Get college football picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 11:59 PM
Expert:	Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
Free $60 Account Sign Up

College Bowl Game Free Picks for Games from Dec. 29-Jan. 1

Most Recent College Football Handicapping