College Basketball Handicapping: Mid-Major Dark Horses

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/6/2023

With the college basketball season upon us, let’s take a look at some dark horse candidates ahead of tipoff. How do we define a dark horse in a league with so much chance and opportunity with all these automatic bids and deep tournament roster? In the November edition of this article, a dark horse will be a team that could sneak into the tournament bracket later this season. When we make our brackets in the spring, we all hope to find the FAU’s and FDU’s to mess up the bracket, so here are some Mid-Major teams that might be worth some attention as we begin another glorious season of college hoops.

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Grand Canyon; 2022-23 Record: 22-14 overall; 11-7 WAC

Key Losses: G Chance McMillian (10.9 PPG, 44.4% 3PT%), G Kobe Knox (15.7 MIN)

Key Additions: F Sydney Curry (Louisville), F Duke Brennan (Arizona St.), G Collin Moore (Georgia St.)

Losing McMillian is tough, as Texas Tech poached the sharpshooter from GCU. However, the Lopes did a good job in filling in the gaps. GCU is returning three of their four double digit scorers from a year ago, including their leading scorer, Ray Harrison, who averaged 17.8 PPG. Gabe McGlothan, who finished second in the team in PPG with 12.8, was also the team’s leading rebounder, averaging 7.6 RPG. Moore should be a fine replacement for McMillian as the Jr. G averaged 14.2 PPG a season ago. Sr. G Javon Blacksher Jr. is going to be a huge X-factor for the Lopes this season, as the former preseason player of the year is returning from an ACL injury. Back in the 2021-’22 season, Blacksher Jr. averaged 15.8 PPG and 4 APG, shooting just shy of 40% from deep. Transfer portal additions Curry and Brennan add some depth and height to this Lopes roster. After finishing fourth in the WAC a season ago, GCU might have done enough this offseason to compete for a conference title and a spot in this year’s tournament.

Notable Games: #17 SDSU, LA Tech, San Fransisco, @ Liberty

Colorado State; 2022-23 Record: 15-18 overall; 6-12 MWC

Key Losses: G John Tonje (14.6 PPG), G Isaiah Rivera (8.6 PPG), G Baylor Hebb (12.7 MIN)

Key Additions: G Javonte Johnson (UNM), F Joel Scott (D2), G Nique Clifford (Colorado)

Colorado St. didn’t recruit well outside of grabbing Johnson and Scott. Scott has averaged over 20 PPG with Black Hills St. (D2) and should bring that scoring ability to this Rams squad that struggled a season ago. Leading scorer Isaiah Stevens is back and will likely form a high-flying duo with Scott. Losing Rivera and Tonje does weaken the backcourt a bit, but Jalen Lake (7.5 PPG) and Johnson should be solid depth pieces for the Rams. Tonje was the team’s leading rebounder and was second on the team in scoring, but Scott looks to fill in that role. And with Scott’s presence, the floor should open more for the Rams best 3-point shooter in Patrick Cartier (44.1%). The MWC will be tough, and SDSU seems to have that conference locked up, so the Rams will have to build a resume strong enough to be an at large selection. However, with #17 SDSU (twice), #23 Saint Mary’s, Boise St. (twice), and Boston College on the schedule, this Rams team will have that opportunity for a strong resume.

Notable Games: #23 Saint Mary’s, #17 SDSU (h/a), Boise St. (h/a), Boston College, Washington

Notable Odds: +1000 to win MWC

UAB Blazers; 2022-23 Record: 29-10 overall; 14-6 C-USA

Key Losses: G Jordan Walker (22.3 PPG), C Trey Jemison (9.1/8.4), F KJ Buffen (10.6 PPG), F Ty Brewer (7.8 PPG), Ledarrius Brewer (6.7 PPG)

Key Additions: C Will Shaver (UNC), G Barry Dunning Jr. (Arkansas), G James White (Ole Miss), G Daniel Ortiz (N. Alabama)

After an incredible season last year for the Blazers, they find themselves in a new conference as realignment has shifted them to the AAC. However, despite the tougher competition, UAB projects to be a highly competitive squad again this year as they look to make a statement against new conference foes. Leading scorer, G Jordan Walker (22.3 PPG), has turned pro, leaving some big shoes to fill, but UAB did a nice job landing some major conference talent. Additionally, UAB graduated Buffen and both Brewers, while Jemison shot his shot with the NBA. Five of the top six scorers for the Blazers are gone, but in comes the transfer portal additions. Former 4-Star big man Shaver and 3-Star Dunning Jr. join White and Ortiz to reload this team. Ortiz is the most established of the bunch as he averaged 14.8 PPG a year ago and should form a nice tandem with returning G Eric Gaines who was second on the team in scoring a year ago. Shaver will get his chance to play everyday and Dunning Jr. is a prime breakout candidate. UAB may take some time to mesh together, but this will be a dangerous team as the season goes on and a prime dark horse candidate to pay attention to.

Notable Games: Clemson, #10 FAU (h/a), Drake, Memphis (h/a)

Notable Odds: +2000 to win AAC

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College Basketball Handicapping: Mid-Major Dark Horses

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