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College Basketball Handicapping: Major Conference Dark Horses

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/7/2023

College basketball handicapping major conference dark horses Keion Brooks Jr Washington Huskies

With the college basketball season upon us, let’s take a look at some dark horse candidates ahead of tipoff. How do we define a dark horse in a league with so much chance and opportunity with all these automatic bids and deep tournament roster? In the November edition of this article, a dark horse will be a team that could sneak into the tournament bracket later this season. When we make our brackets in the spring, we all hope to find the Miami’s and the Pittsburgh’s to mess up the brackets, so here are some Major Conference teams that might be worth some attention as we begin another glorious season of college hoops.

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Washington Huskies; 2022-23 Record: 16-16; 8-12 PAC-12

Key Losses: G Keyon Menifield Jr. (10/2.9/3.1), G Jamal Bey (26.3 MIN), G Noah Williams (9.7/3.3/2.2), G PJ Fuller II (23 MIN), G Cole Bajema (8.8/4.2)

Key Additions: G Wesley Yates (4-Star), G Paul Mulcahy (Rutgers), G Nate Calmese (Incarnate Word), G Sahvir Wheeler (Kentucky), G Anthony Holland (Fresno St.), F Moses Wood (Portland), C Wilhelm Breidenbach (Nebraska)

Washington lost every single impactful guard from last year’s squad except for Koren Johnson (6.8 PPG), but they did a great job replacing the losses. Wheeler is a huge get for this Huskies squad, while Calmese and Wood bring plenty of scoring potential to pair with F Keion Brooks Jr. who led the team last season with 17.7 PPG. The veteran front court should also provide plenty of second chance opportunities thanks to their size and depth. After adding Breidenbach from Nebraska, this team now has four players on the roster at 6’10” or taller, and all should get time on the court. Not only that, but Yates (ranked 53rd nationally) could also provide a spark for Washington in his first college season. These Huskies are one of my favorite teams to watch as we get the season started, as they have ample opportunity to build a solid resume and show their PAC-12 opponents that they are much improved from a season ago. This team will finish in the upper portion of their league and should find themselves in the conversation to crack the bracket.

Notable Games: Xavier, #11 Gonzaga, Colorado St., @ #12 Arizona, #21 USC, UCLA (h/a)

Notable Odds: +4000 to win PAC-12

Maryland Terrapins; 2022-23 Record: 15-17; 7-13 B10

Key Losses: G Hakim Hart (11.4/4.1/2.6), G Ian Martinez (5.7 PPG)

Key Additions: G DeShawn Harris-Smith (4-Star), G Jamie Kaiser (4-Star), G Chance Stephens (LMU), Jordan Geronimo (Indiana), Mady Traore (NMSU)

A year ago, Maryland featured four players who averaged double digit points. This season they returned three of those four top scorers, with Hart departing for Villanova. G Jahmir Young led the way with 15.8 PPG and will return with leading rebounders F Julian Reese (11.4/7.2) and F Donta Scott (11.3/6). With those impactful scorers returning, it is notable that Maryland held opponents to just 63.5 PPG last season. The Terps are excited for incoming freshman Harris-Smith as the SG was ranked first in the state of Virginia and 27th nationally. Fellow 4-Star SG true freshman Jamie Kaiser should also be a nice compliment and give Maryland some depth in the backcourt. The Terps will really need to improve their performance on offense. At the charity stripe they shot just 73.9% and from deep they cashed on just 33% of their attempts. They did add a lot of impactful talent through high school and the transfer portal and should be able to improve compared to last year’s forgetful performance. It helps that the B10 is going to be weaker than normal with teams like Iowa, Northwestern, and Indiana projected to have down years.

Notable Games: @ #22 Villanova, #3 Purdue, #4 Michigan St. (h/a), #25 Illinois (h/a), @ Wisconsin

Notable Odds: +1000 to make Final Four

Syracuse Orange; 2022-23 Record: 16-17; 9-11 ACC

Key Losses: Jim Boeheim, C Jesse Edwards (14.5/10.3), G Joseph Girard III (16.4 PPG)

Key Additions: C Naheem McLeod (Florida St.), G JJ Starling (Notre Dame), F Chance Westry (Auburn), ATH Kyle Cuffe Jr. (Kansas)

The Orange are projected to finish 10th in the ACC, according to the conference preseason media poll. 10th. I could see this team competing for the conference title. They did lose a solid pair in Edwards and Girard, who accounted for nearly 42% of the Orange’s offense last season but did a great job in the transfer portal. This year’s Orange roster is very tall. They have four players at 6’11” or taller, with newcomer Mcleod standing tall at 7’4”. Starling, who averaged 11.2 PPG with the Irish, joins Judah Mintz (16.3 PPG) to form one of the most dynamic guard duos in the country. Cuffe Jr. should provide valuable minutes off the bench and help improve this team’s offense. The Orange have plenty of tests this season and will need to pull off a few upsets, but the height on this roster should be a very nice compliment for their dynamic backcourt and allow for them to trust themselves some more from deep, a piece of the puzzle the Orange didn’t have a season ago (shot only 36.2% from deep). Syracuse has shaped this roster in a way that makes them a prime dark horse candidate.

Notable Games: #9 Tennessee, @ UVA, Oregon, @ #2 Duke, #13 Miami, #19 UNC (h/a), Clemson (h/a)

Notable Odds: +3500 to make Final Four

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