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Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 4/12/2023

Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers series predictions James Harden

The Philadelphia 76ers were led by Joel Embiid’s 33.1 PPG, securing the 3rd seed in the East. Their 56-win campaign was the best the 76ers have achieved since their 2001 NBA Finals run. There is no doubt the 76ers are coming in as favorites against the Nets, but the Nets have been quietly consistent since the Durant and Irving trades. Mikal Bridges has settled in nicely, and the Nets managed to avoid the Play-In Tournament, despite their superstars’ departures. If they can upset Philadelphia, the future will start looking very bright for Brooklyn. However, the MVP favorite Embiid will not go down easily.

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Philadelphia 76ers:

The 76ers have now made the playoffs for the 6th straight season but have yet to advance past the 2nd round in that span. Just when it was looking like Embiid couldn’t get any better, he found a way to do so. His 33.1 PPG this season is a career high and the 4th most points scored by any player since 1990. He was extremely efficient in leading the 76ers attack, scoring on 54.8% of his shots. The Cameroon native looks to be a shoe-in for his first career MVP award, but he’ll be much more concerned about his team's postseason chances.

The second star in Philadelphia is James Harden, who led the league with 10.7 Assists per game, in his fourth straight season averaging 10+ Assists. The talented playmaker has developed quite the connection with Embiid and is thriving in his first full season in Philly. The 76ers went 39-19 in games he suited up for, compared to just 15-9 when he sits. His presence on the offensive end is critical for the 76ers scoring, and he is more than capable of taking big shots himself when it matters most. His defensive workrate has been questioned in the past, but he has shown improvement on that end of the court this season.

The talented 76ers offense doesn’t end there, as Tyrese Maxey has taken massive strides in his third NBA season. His 20.3 PPG ensures the 76ers are one of three teams with 3 20+ PPG scorers, and his 43.4% 3 PT shooting is good for 5th in the Association. There aren’t many better third options in the league, and Maxey gives the 76ers a reliable second option when Harden or Embiid are on the bench.

The 76ers find themselves leading a variety of categories. Their 38.7% shooting from deep and their 83.5% free throw percentage are both league highs and ensure their 60.8% true shooting percentage remains at the top. Despite Embiid’s towering presence in the paint, the 76ers have struggled on the glass, and rank bottom 5 in both rebounds and offensive rebounds. In the postseason, it’s critical to avoid giving those extra possessions to the opposition, but a Top 10 offense and defense will always leave the 76ers within striking distance in any contest.

Brooklyn Nets:

What a roller coaster season it has been for the Nets. Last year, they were shockingly swept by the Celtics in the first round, but there was some real optimism surrounding this team heading into this year. Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons had appeared to put their off court issues behind them, and the Nets looked poised for a deep championship run led by Kevin Durant. At the trade deadline, despite their 5th place standing, Brooklyn opted to blow up the franchise and send Irving and Durant elsewhere. With Simmons riding the bench, the Nets looked ready to plummet down the standings.

The Nets managed to go a respectable 12-15 since their stars departed and held onto a playoff position thanks to Bridges. Bridges was sent to Brooklyn in addition to a boatload of draft picks in exchange for Durant. While he is a tier below KD, Bridges has instantly started producing for the Nets, averaging 26.1 PPG for his new franchise. He’s a fantastic two-way player and is routinely tasked with locking down the opposition's best player, utilizing his 7-foot wingspan well.

Joining Bridges in the backcourt is another new arrival in Spencer Dinwiddie. The ex-Maverick was sent to Brooklyn as part of the package for Irving and has averaged an incredible 9.1 Assists per game during his most recent stint in Brooklyn. While the backcourt duo may not be among the elites in the league, they are certainly capable of winning games for their new organization.

After the trade deadline firesale, the Nets were not expected to be here. Their new additions and reliable veterans allowed them to limp over the line, but they are unlikely to go on a deep playoff run. They struggle to contain their opponents on the glass and are 29th in the league in rebounds grabbed. Nic Claxton will certainly be a presence in the paint, but the Nets lack quality big men apart from him. There is nothing else inherently wrong with Brooklyn, as they are Top 20 in the rest of the key stats, but there is nothing spectacular about the team, either. They’ve continued to surprise the NBA with their play over the last two months and will look to take it one step further with an upset of the 76ers.

Nets vs 76ers Prediction:

This series is expected to be one sided, and the 76ers are coming in with all the momentum. The 76ers went 16-9 after the all-star break, good for the joint second-best record in the league. Joel Embiid keeps finding ways to get better and become more dominant just when it looks as though that isn’t possible. The Nets have no answer for the big man and won’t be able to take advantage of the 76ers biggest weakness.

It is very rare to find a team in the Top 5 in the league with such a gaping hole, but the 76ers rebounding will be a serious concern in the postseason. Against mediocre opposition, the 76ers can outscore the extra possessions they give the opposition. And fortunately for them, the Nets are a perfect matchup for them. Both teams are Bottom 5 in rebounds, and their weaknesses should cancel each other out. However, the gap in their strengths will be too much to overcome for Brooklyn. The Nets have a solid defender in Claxton, who will likely be on the court whenever Embiid is, but they lack the help inside to contain him. With all due respect, Claxton does not have the capabilities to prevent Embiid from consistently getting to the hoop.

In the backcourt, the matchup between Harden and Maxey against Bridges and Dinwiddie will be mouthwatering. Bridges and Maxey are both shooters, who use their athleticism to score, while Harden and Dinwiddie are elite playmakers, who can still take big shots when it matters most.

As far as I’m concerned, their backcourts use relatively similar styles, and are of similar quality, but the frontcourt is a different story. The 76ers have the size and talent to outscore Brooklyn down low and will grind out victories over the identity-less franchise. The Nets 16th ranked defense will not be able to slow down Embiid and their 4th ranked offense, and I expect the 76ers to win 3 of the first 4 games, before closing the series on their home court in 5 games.

Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers in 5 games.

Best Bets:

While the 76ers are probably going to win the series, the -900 price tag is far too expensive to play. The +600 attached to Brooklyn’s win is tempting, but I struggle to imagine a world, barring a massive injury, that Brooklyn beats Philadelphia. In order to extract value, we’ll need to look at the spread. The Nets are +110 to stay within 2.5 games of the 76ers, while Philly comes back at -150 odds. I do expect the 76ers to win in 5 games. However, rather than lay juice on the -150 for the 76ers to win in 4 or 5 games (-2.5), I’d rather go for the correct score to be 4-1 at +180. The far greater odds justify the bet, as I expect the 76ers to lose at least one game. In the regular season, the 76ers routinely dug themselves a hole, and went just 38-42-2 straight up in the first half. While they should be able to claw back most of the games, I expect one to slip away from them en route to a 5-game series win. The +180 odds on 5 games, compared to the -150 odds on 4 or 5 games, makes this bet far more appealing.

The second bet is a niche one, but I’m loving Spencer Dinwiddie to get the most assists in the series at +250. This is clearly a two-horse race, with James Harden coming in at -400 to take this one home. While betting against the league leader in Assists is never fun, the value on Dinwiddie is undeniable. He’s gotten 10+ Assists in 5 of his last 6 games, averaging 11.8 Assists per game during that span. Comparatively, Harden has averaged just 9.2 Assists during his last 6 games. And once you factor in the possibility Harden’s Achilles injury acts up, these odds are too good to pass up.

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers to win 4-1 +180

Pick: Spencer Dinwiddie Most Assists +250

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