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Betting Implications of the NBA In-Season Tournament

by Spencer Toth - 8/26/2023

Betting implications of the NBA In Season Tournament

For the first time in history, the NBA will be running a mid-season tournament in an attempt to make regular season games more meaningful. The numerous betting opportunities this promotion has created has left bettors salivating, and we’ll get to see the teams compete at full strength more frequently during the season.

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The tournament is split into two categories: Group Play and Knockout Rounds. In the group play, teams have been randomly drawn into a group of 5, and they’ll play all 4 other opponents once to determine the standings (2 at home, 2 on the road). These games count towards the regular season standings, and just have a little extra incentive thanks to the tournament aspect. They are very spread out, as most teams play tournament games just once a week, throughout November.

Once we move into the knockout stage, the six group winners automatically qualify for the knockout stage, with the two best second-place teams joining them to create an even eight teams. After that, it becomes a single elimination tournament similar to March Madness. The Quarter and Semi Finals will still count towards the regular season standings, but the schedule will be adjusted to ensure all 30 teams still play an even 82 games. After the teams have been whittled down to four, then two teams, the finalists, will square off in Las Vegas with the NBA Cup on the line.

It is pretty clear this tournament was created to increase revenue and give NBA fans something to get excited about in the cold winter months. Whatever the intentions were, it will surely be full of surprises. It remains to be seen how the players will react to these games, with many of them having already voiced their displeasure. There is a cash prize for the winners. However, considering these men are already making millions of dollars, an extra few hundred thousand may not be enough to invigorate them. It will all come down to motivation.

The NBA is one of the few leagues that routinely rest their stars. You don’t see Patrick Mahomes, Conor McDavid, or Aaron Judge taking days off, and this tournament will ensure the league’s best will all attempt to suit up for these games. If a set of coaching staff chooses to treat these games as run of the mill regular season games, then that will certainly affect the betting odds.

The odds for the in-season tournament are not dissimilar to the NBA championship odds, with familiar faces up top. The rankings remain the same with the Nuggets, Celtics, Suns, and Bucks taking the top spots, but the betting odds suggest a much more level playing field. The Celtics lead the way with +700 odds to win the in-season tournament, with the Nuggets, Suns and Bucks coming in with +850, +1000 and +1000 odds, respectively. Compared to the championship, all 4 teams have +650 odds or shorter attached to their success, with the Nuggets offering just +450 odds. A similar trend can be seen at the bottom, with several teams posting +30000 odds for a championship, including the Pistons, and Magic, but for the in-season tournament they have much shorter odds, with the Magic coming in as high as +3300.

The single elimination format ensures there will be surprises. A group stage of just four games means even one loss could spell elimination for a top dog. It only takes seven wins to win the tournament, and the nature of the NBA means there will almost certainly be some real surprises in the early stages.

The betting odds on the group stage games will see the heavy favorite’s lines get even steeper. A Bucks vs Wizards regular season game may see the Bucks come in as -800 favorites, as you never know who will get hot. But if that is a tournament game, the odds will swell significantly, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bucks in the -1400 range despite the same opponent.

When betting on this tournament, I will be all over the favorites. While the single elimination style may lead to more upsets, the dominant teams are still better. The Lakers coming in at +1200 with the Pacers at +3300 just doesn’t sit right with me. The Pacers won’t be winning 6/7 or 7/7 games needed to lift the trophy, and these odds are too short. I don’t expect the favorites to stay so profitable for very long, and I’d grab them at these generous odds while you still can.

The major sport leagues have been around for the better part of 100 years, and it’s rare we get to experience something new. I applaud the NBA for giving it a shot, and if it doesn’t work out then they can scrap it in the future. For now, the betting opportunities are numerous, and an action-packed November and December awaits.

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