MLB Handicapping: Evaluating the Best, Worst Bullpens in 2023

by Matt Jacob - 6/19/2023

Best and worst MLB bullpens for betting Kendall Graveman Chicago White Sox

Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver once famously said that, in baseball, momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher.

Weaver’s quote has long been considered gospel to serious baseball bettors, whose handicapping always begins by analyzing the starting pitching matchup for any given game.

However, as advanced analytics have hijacked the national pastime, starting pitchers have become less and less relevant. In fact, relief pitchers these days often are asked to cover nearly half of a nine-inning game — if not more.

The shift in concept has forced baseball bettors to shift their handicapping strategy, placing more of an emphasis on the quality of each team’s relief pitching corps.

With that in mind, here’s a look at MLB’s best and worst bullpens, and the correlation between bullpen stats and wagering profitability.

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MLB Bullpens: Oh, What a Relief (Or Not)

Make no mistake: Starting pitching still matters when betting baseball. And there are still old-school workhorses such as Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw who take the ball every fifth day with the intention (and capability) of working deep into a ballgame.

But in the age of specialization, those types of staff aces are now the exception rather than the norm.

As such, when examining the strength of a team’s bullpen, bettors who used to focus solely on the closer and set-up man now must evaluate the quality of the entire six-man relief corps.

This isn’t to say that relief pitching is any more crucial to a team’s success than hitting, baserunning, defense or starting pitching. But it’s certainly more vital than it was at the turn of the century.

For proof, look no further than two teams at opposite ends of the relief pitching spectrum this season.

Entering Monday’s action, the Baltimore Orioles ranked ninth in MLB in runs scored, 10th in OPS and tied for 11th in home runs. Also, their starting staff was 20th in ERA (4.61).

However, Orioles relief pitchers have the seventh-best ERA (3.53); they’re tied for the lowest home-run rate; and they have recorded 17 of the team’s 44 victories. Baltimore also sports the best bullpen WAR among all 30 teams (4.1).

MLB’s most profitable team to date? The Orioles, whose .620 winning percentage is the third best in baseball and has translated into more than 11.5 units of profit.

Then there are the Los Angeles Dodgers, who rank fourth in runs scored, fourth in OPS and third in home runs. And while their starting staff ranks right in the middle of the pack in terms of ERA, it has MLB’s second-best BABIP (batting average on balls in play).

Once the call goes to the bullpen, though, Dodgers fans (and bettors) begin experiencing heart palpitations. Because only the lowly Oakland A’s (5.58) have a worse bullpen ERA than Los Angeles (5.04). The Dodgers also are tied for 25th with just 15 saves, and their 1.5 bullpen WAR ranks 23rd in MLB.

And now you know a big reason why Los Angeles is just 39-33, in third place in the National League West and 19th in profitability (down more than 4 units).

MLB Bullpens: Part of a Winning Wagering Formula

To be clear, a strong bullpen doesn’t guarantee success, either on the field or at the wagering window. And the reverse is also true.

After all, the Texas Rangers are tied for 23rd in bullpen ERA and have nearly as many blown saves (10) as saves (13, which ranks 27th). But the Rangers’ 44-27 record is tied with Baltimore for third best in the league, and they’re baseball’s fifth most profitable team (+8.5 units).

Meanwhile, the five best bullpen ERAs belong to the New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres, Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins. Not one of those squads has turned a profit for bettors, and combined they enter Monday down nearly 29 units.

The point: As has always been the case, baseball is a complicated sport with multiple components determining a team’s success and failure. And relief pitching has always been one of those components.

That said, teams are much more reliant on their bullpens than they were two decades ago. That is why it’s important for baseball bettors to incorporate all aspects of relief pitching into their handicapping, from traditional stats and advanced analytics to usage rates and depth charts.

Because while momentum may indeed still be the next day’s starting pitcher, if the six arms waiting in the wings aren’t consistently reliable, that momentum — and your cash — could vanish quickly.

Top 5 MLB Bullpens (by ERA)

New York Yankees (2.96)

Cleveland Guardians (3.02)

San Diego Padres (3.21)

Houston Astros (3.32)

Minnesota Twins (3.45)

Bottom 5 MLB Bullpens (by ERA)

Oakland A’s (5.58)

Los Angeles Dodgers (5.04)

Kansas City Royals (4.81)

Washington Nationals (4.79)

Chicago White Sox (4.68)

Best Bullpen ERAs Among Profitable Teams

Los Angeles Angels (6th in ERA; +3.9 units)

Baltimore Orioles (7th in ERA; +11.6 units)

Atlanta Braves (9th in ERA; +3.0 units)

Cincinnati Reds (10th in ERA; +10.0 units)

San Francisco Giants (11th in ERA; +5.2 units)

Worst Bullpen ERAs Among Non-Profitable Teams

Oakland A’s (30th in ERA; -21.9 units)

Los Angeles Dodgers (29th in ERA; -4.6 units)

Kansas City Royals (28th in ERA; -26.1 units)

Washington Nationals (27th in ERA: -1.4 units)

Chicago White Sox (26th in ERA; -12.3 units)

Colorado Rockies (25th in ERA; -5.2 units)

Chicago Cubs (24th in ERA; -5 units)

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