Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 3: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 9/20/2023

Best teaser bets week 3 Elijah Riley Pittsburgh Steelers

Heading into Week 3 of the NFL regular season, we are 2-0 on our teaser bets. In Week 1, we teased up two underdogs, and they both won outright. This past week, our teams still lost their games, but not by enough points to beat us.

So, what exactly am I talking about?

First, let’s define a teaser bet.

What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a type of parlay where the bettor is allowed to change the point spread for a game in their favor. That, of course, makes the bet easier to win. In return, the sportsbook will lower the payout. The most common and profitable teaser is a two-team, six-point football teaser.

That brings us to our basic strategy for teasers.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

You want to tease the betting odds of your team through the two key numbers of three and seven. A key number is a likely point differential for the game. For example, a differential of three points is, by far, the most frequent for an NFL game.

The second most likely key number is seven. Since more than 15% of games end with a difference of precisely three points and another 8.75% are decided by exactly seven, we are getting a good amount of value.

It is easy to get greedy and try for more than a two-leg teaser, but we must resist and stick with just two teams.

You want to look for either betting favorites you really like at (-1.5) to (-2.5) and bet them up to (-7.5) or (-8.5) or tease the underdogs of (+1.5) to (+2.5) through those key numbers we spoke of up to (+7.5) or (+8.5).

Do this for two teams, and you will have your basic strategy teaser.

I believe you are better off teasing underdogs than you will be teasing favorites, considering the parity of the NFL. However, from time to time, we will jump on the bandwagon and tease the betting favorite.

We have some possible games to tease listed below. Let’s break those down and select two for our Week 3 NFL teaser bet.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Week 3 NFL Potential Teaser Games

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as betting favorites at (-1), and the line has moved significantly. Usually, betting on a team that has gone from favorite to underdog is a bad idea.

It may be here as well. That much money doesn’t get unloaded without good reason. Do we want to take the Raiders, though, to win by nine points when they were just underdogs a couple of days ago?

No way! So far, I love Pittsburgh in this spot at (+8.5). It doesn't get better than that as far as line value is concerned.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) vs Los Angeles Rams (+1.5)

The LA Rams are getting 1.5 points on the road versus the Cincinnati Bengals. The playing status of Cincy QB Joe Burrow is still up in the air. Speaking of up in the air, the passing attack with an injured Burrow is averaging an abysmal 3.9 yards/attempt through the first two games of the year.

It's tempting to take the Rams outright. So, teasing them makes sense. Add the possible news that Burrow may not play, and I think we can safely gamble here on the Rams.

Green Bay Packers (-2) vs New Orleans Saints (+2)

Another game? We do have two solid teams to tease so far, but the New Orleans Saints seem like they are going to play teams closely this year.

It is a home opener, however, for Green Bay, and the Saints have scored only 36 points through two weeks. I only worry about the jump in competition for New Orleans. After half-stepping past the Titans and Panthers, the Pack at Lambeau might be a leap.

New England Patriots (-2.5) vs New York Jets (+2.5)

Teasing up the New York Jets means betting against Bill Belichick. That is never high on my list.

Looking at the team stats so far, though, New England is bad on offense. They are averaging only 3.5 yards/carry, and guess who is allowing only 3.5? The Jets.

It's tough to get a read on New York, though. The first game of the year was a mess on both sides of the ball. They needed a punt return to win it. Then, they just got waxed by the Cowboys, but Dallas is very good.

The Pats are 0-2 but have gone against two solid teams. This game likely plays out very closely, but I'll refrain from backing the unproven Jets and opposing Belichick.

Week 3 NFL Basic Strategy Teaser Pick

I really wanted to give you two teasers this week. So, if you must, add one for the Jets and the Saints.

That isn't my first choice, though. The line value with the Steelers is outrageous. This can't be ignored, and the possibility of Burrow sitting out puts us over the top on the Rams as well.

Teaser: Steelers (+8.5) and Rams (+7.5): -120

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NFL Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers