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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 16: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 12/21/2023

Best teaser bets Week 16 Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins

It’s now Week 16 of the 2023 NFL regular season, and the surprises haven’t been scarce. I hope you are still in the green. Betting the point spread or the point total in the NFL is very challenging.

I just wish there was a way that the bettor could manipulate the line in their favor. Even if it was as little as 6 points, we could roll into game day with much more confidence and, in our minds at least, a thicker wallet by the end of the night.

There is something that the bettor can do to move the line in their favor. It’s called a teaser.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser bet is a parlay wager when the bettor essentially buys points from the sportsbooks. And as you might imagine, the potential payout percentage decreases. However, it doesn't plummet. You can get some excellent value if you're conservative and smart about your teaser bet.

The difficulty there lies in all this opportunity staring you right in the face. It’s like the menu at The Cheesecake Factory. If you thought you had good opinions before, let’s add 6 points or more and see how you feel.

Then you get that parlay bug thing, and that's when the human spirit kicks in and kicks our butts.

There are smart ways to play these teasers. And not only does it give us a better chance to make money in the long term, but it takes a lot of the guesswork out, and we let the math do the work for us.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

A basic strategy teaser has several components. The first of those is that it must be a 2-team NFL 6-point teaser where we add 6 points to either an underdog's or a favorite's betting line.

If we want to tease a betting favorite down, we look for teams with odds of (-7.5) to (-8.5), and after the 6-point tease, we now have odds of (-1.5) to (-2.5). Let's say we want to tease an underdog up. We now look for teams with betting odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5), and after the points, they will be (+7.5) to (+8.5).

Why these numbers? This is very important. Whether we are teasing a favorite down or an underdog up, we want our 6 points to go through the key numbers of 3 and 7.

More games end with a point differential of 3 than any other number. The second most common key number is 7. With our basic strategy, you can see that we don't just go to the key number, we go through it.

NFL Week 16 Potential Games to Tease

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs Houston Texans (+2.5)

This is a stylistic clash, and both of these teams are in playoff contention. Heck, just about everyone in the AFC is still in contention. As of right now, the Browns are the 5th team in, and the Houston Texans, sitting one game behind them at 8-6, are the first team out.

A win here at home would be massive for Houston, though, because it would take them to 9-6, with the head-to-head win over the Browns.

The big question here is will CJ Stroud play? The word right now is that he will likely still be in concussion protocol.

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs Tennessee Titans (+2.5)

The Tennessee Titans are eliminated from postseason play. I know Mike Vrabel always brings his team to compete. However, with the Seahawks currently the first team out of postseason contention, you have to expect they are going to come into this one the hungrier team.

They are coming off a huge win 20-17 over the Eagles. I would normally love to fade them here, but how can we?

Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) vs Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys visit the Miami Dolphins this week in one of the most interesting matchups of the season.

They have both been bullies up to this point. They smoke the shoddy teams but have yet to make the next step towards being an elite team.

If we were to include the Cowboys in our teaser, we would need to have confidence in them on the road. I actually don't mind Dallas in this spot, but the other two potential teaser legs just don't have enough meat on the bone.

Prediction: Pass

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