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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 13: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 11/30/2023

Best teaser bets Week 13 Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles

I'm not sure if you've figured it out yet, but this sports betting thing is even harder than we've thought. I'll never forget my first-ever legal wager on a sporting event.

It was my first time in Las Vegas, and I hit a 3-team NFL parlay. Those pay at 6-1! Almost immediately, of course, I thought I had cracked some code. After several failed attempts to recreate that magic, I began to think about what kind of win rate I would need to make money in the long term.

As the learning process continued, I realized that parlay betting is much more like playing the lottery than it is the stock market.

However, it wasn't long after that when I discovered teaser bets.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser bet is a type of parlay where the bettor can manipulate the point spread in their favor. In turn, the sportsbooks then manipulate the odds in their favor.

We are all human, though. Aren’t we?

At this point, I don't know. Assuming we are, though, we make mistakes. And as good as the sportsbooks can be, they will leave us some spots where the value is on our side.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

One of those spots is more of a strategy. The basic strategy teaser is a two-team NFL teaser where the bettor adds specifically 6 points to the point spread of a game.

You can either tease a betting favorite down or tease the underdog up.

Also, we want to tease these teams through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Nearly 17% of all NFL games end exactly with a difference of 3 points. That is by far the most common. The next most likely margin of victory is 7 points.

If we want to tease a betting favorite down, we look for odds of (-7.5) to (-8.5) and tease them down to odds of just (-1.5) to (-2.5).

To tease the betting underdog up, we look for the inverse with odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5) and take them through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to (+7.5) to (+8.5).

We can do either, but I will be transparent and say that I have more success teasing an underdog up than when I tease the favorite down.

Potential Week 13 NFL Teaser Games

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs New York Jets (+2.5)

Only one game separates the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Jets. However, at this point in the season, it means quite a lot.

If the postseason began this week, the 5-6 Atlanta Falcons would be the 4th seed.

Conversely, the 4-7 New York Jets are all but eliminated from postseason contention. They would have to soar past 5 teams currently with a better record.

I see Aaron Rodgers is officially practicing. So, maybe these guys come into Sunday’s home game fired up.

If the Jets are going to win, as we know, it needs to start on the defensive side of the ball. Do they have playmakers on offense? Sure, but quarterback Zach Wilson has shown flashes of pretty goodness but about a third of the time, he sucks.

With that said, Falcons QB Desmond Ridder isn't much better. He's already been benched once this year. And in his first game back against the Saints last week, he threw for 168 yards with 2 interceptions.

However, Atlanta did run for over 220 yards in that game, propelling them to a 24-15 win.

Both Atlanta and New York rank around 10th in run defense. However, over the last three games, the Falcons have been giving up nearly 5 yards a carry.

Another thing I like in a teaser is a low projected point total. That means our 6 extra points count for more than they would in a suggested shootout.

The total for this matchup opened at 36.5 and has been bet down to 34!

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)

Moving on now to the biggest NFC matchup of the 2023 regular season. The San Francisco 49ers visit the Philadelphia Eagles in the late afternoon game on Sunday.

This one opened up with the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites at home. That made sense; I thought maybe the line would get bet down to a pick'em, but wow, it has moved a full 3 points.

Looking at the injury report, I can see why the money has piled up on the San Francisco side. Philly is quite banged up, and the Niners are about as healthy as they have been since the first few weeks of the season.

Another reason the dough came in on San Francisco is sharp bettors look to fade teams coming off a down-to-the-wire emotional win. You may not have watched the Eagles vs Bills game this past weekend, but I'm sure you saw the highlights.

My dad hasn't watched a game in over a decade, and he texted me to tell me about it.

I get that part, but the Eagles knew who they had to play next. That's a big reason they had such a close game against Buffalo.

Instead of giving Philly 6 points, we essentially can give them 9 from where the betting line opened. I’ll take it.

Week 13 NFL Basic Strategy Teaser Prediction

Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5) and New York Jets (+8.5): -120

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