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Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 4/13/2023

Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics series predictions Trae Young

The Boston Celtics entered the season as title favorites after losing to the Warriors in the Finals last season. While they may no longer be the favorites, they will still be very confident they can go one step further than a year ago and secure their 18th title in franchise history. Their first opponent is the Atlanta Hawks, who went into Miami in the Play In and beat the 7th seed Heat to secure their place in the postseason. The Hawks were expected to lose to Miami, but they defied the odds and are in the playoffs. Can they take it even further and upset the defending Eastern Conference champions?

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Boston Celtics:

The Celtics are desperately looking for their first NBA title 2008 after being stifled at the final hurdle by Steph Curry and the Warriors last season. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were the superstars of that deep playoff run and have miraculously gotten even better this year. Tatum’s 30.1 PPG, 8.8 Rebounds, and 4.6 Assists are all career highs, and the 25-year-old superstar continues to prove he is among the best in the league. The combination of his length and agility makes him a tough guard for anyone, as there are few players who can contain the talented forward.

Brown is not to be outdone, as his 26.6 PPG, 6.9 Rebounds and 3.5 Assists are also all career highs, and the 26-year-old has formed quite the connection with Tatum. He is shooting a very efficient 49.1% from the floor, putting him among the elite guards in the league. His ability to put his head down and drive into the paint, while still looking for teammates, is a spectacle to watch and will help the Celtics with their playoff push.

The Celtics came into the season as title favorites. And while the Bucks have taken over top spot, the Celtics are still expected to go on a deep playoff run. They are top 3 in both offensive and defensive ratings, don’t turn the ball over, and chase down rebounds. This team has what it takes to win and should be able to use their playoff experience to navigate a top-heavy Eastern Conference.

One concern is their depth, as after Tatum and Brown, no player is averaging 15+ PPG on the roster. Players like Marcus Smart and Robert Williams contribute to the Celtics without scoring many points, but the lack of depth in the scoring department may hurt the Celtics in the long run. The team remains relatively unchanged compared to last year's roster. And while the East isn’t as decimated with injuries, the Celtics have improved, and are ready to take down the Hawks en route to an NBA championship.

Atlanta Hawks:

The Hawks are incredibly consistent, finishing the regular season with a 41-41 record. Whether you want to call it consistency or mediocrity, the last time the Hawks were 2 or more games above or below .500 was when they were 20-22 on January 13. They’ve won 3 of their last 6, 7 of their last 14, 11 of their last 22, and haven’t gone on a 3-game winning or losing streak in months.

They managed to beat Miami on the road in the play-in game, booking their place in the first round against the Celtics. While they will certainly be coming into the series as underdogs, few expected them to reach the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021, and the Hawks will be hoping for a similar trajectory this postseason.

Trae Young has been the face of the Hawks for years, and the upper management finally brought him a co-star. The Hawks picked up Dejounte Murray in the offseason, with hopes of pushing the team to the next level. The core of Young, Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic were expected to take strides with the addition of Murray, but actually finished with two fewer wins than last season.

Young will need to re-ignite some of that 2021 magic if the Hawks are going to go deep in the playoffs. The sight of him shushing Madison Square Garden after eliminating the Knicks, then seeing him go and knock off the 76ers, was quite the spectacle. He plays with a Curry-like swagger, pulling up from deep with confidence. While his shooting numbers have taken a step back, he’s turned into quite the provider, averaging a career high 10.2 Assists per game. The Hawks will need Young to turn back the clock, and ignite a spark in his teammates, especially Murray.

While it would be premature to call Murray a flop, he has certainly not lived up to expectations in Atlanta. While his shooting has remained similar to his final season with the Spurs, he’s averaging 5.3 Rebounds compared to 8.3, and 6.1 Assists compared to 9.2. Of course, he’s getting the ball in his hands less frequently with better teammates, but Murray is more than capable of bumping up these numbers.

The Hawks will need to pick up the slack on the defensive end if they are to compete with anyone in the playoff field, let alone the Celtics. Their 118.1 PPG Against is the most among any playoff team. And if they can’t prevent easy points in the paint, they will not be successful moving forward.

Hawks vs Celtics Prediction:

The Celtics are overwhelming favorites to advance, and I have little doubt they will do so. They’ve been playing fantastic basketball throughout the season, have the 2 best players on the court, and their lack of depth won’t catch up to them in the first round. They’ve been resting since Sunday’s season finale, while the Hawks had to sweat out a Wednesday night play-in game. The rest and skill advantages point firmly in the direction of Boston, and I won’t disagree.

While there are certainly positives surrounding the Hawks, like their high-paced offense, there are simply too many holes for the Celtics to exploit. The 118.1 PPG they give up will swell in the playoffs, and I expect Boston to consistently score 125+ on a nightly basis. Will Atlanta be able to keep up? I doubt it. The Celtics ability to shut down the outside and be confident that Robert Williams will be there to back them up makes them a terrifying defensive unit. Once you factor in their 2nd ranked offense to go along with their 3rd ranked defense, this series will become increasingly one sided.

Finally, the Celtics average 16 3’s made per game, while the Hawks are at just 10.8. That’s an extra 15 points in favor of the men in green, and I just don’t see the Young to Capela alley oop coming off consistently enough to mitigate that disadvantage.

After Boston wins the first 2 games of the series, Atlanta will head home with a fire under their belly. I expect them to win at least 1 of the 2 home games, before eventually bowing out in either 5 or 6 games. While a sweep or an easy 5 game series looks likely, Atlanta’s resistance to falling into a losing skid makes me hesitant. Boston has come out flat against weaker opposition several times this season, so I’ll go out on a limb and say the Hawks win 2 games, after getting blown out at least twice as well.

Pick: Boston Celtics in 6 games.

Best Bets:

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out who Vegas expects to win this matchup. The Celtics are coming in as unplayable -1000 favorites to advance, while the Hawks are a juicy +650. I won’t be betting a -1000 line, nor will I be putting my hard-earned cash on the Hawks. However, once we look into the spread market, I see fantastic value on Atlanta. The Hawks are -275 to win at least 1 game (+3.5 Games), and I just can’t get behind a Celtics sweep. The Hawks haven’t lost 4 straight all season long. And while the Celtics are stiff competition, the Hawks will take down at least 1 game. I’ll even take it a step further and grab the Hawks +2.5 Games at +140 odds, as I expect Atlanta to push it to 6 games. It’s not gonna’ be pretty, but I’ll be banking on that Trae Young magic to re-emerge this season.

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (+3.5) -275

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (+2.5) +140

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