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World Cup Final Four Betting Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 12/13/2022

World Cup final four betting predictions Lionel Messi Argentina

There are 4 teams remaining that all have the same goal; lifting the world's most prestigious trophy. Bringing home glory to your country on the world’s biggest stage is a feeling few footballers get to feel, yet someone will be writing their name in the history books in a few days’ time. Let’s look at each of the remaining contenders, and what they need to do to succeed.

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Argentina:

Pre tournament odds: +550

Current odds: +170

Next opponent: Croatia

Argentina is looking to lift their 3rd World Cup. And while soccer is a team sport, all eyes will be on one man. Lionel Messi is in the twilight of his career but continues to be a critical piece in the Argentinian squad. Messi is the leading scorer and assist man for Argentina, with 4 goals and 2 assists, and remains the focal point of their attack. He is able to twist and turn while evading defenders like no other on the planet and must be at his best if Argentina will advance. Argentina’s World Cup got off to a rocky start, losing 2-1 to Saudi Arabia, before beating Mexico and Poland to win Group C. After a comfortable win over Australia, Argentina almost had a monumental collapse against Netherlands, before eventually beating them via penalty shootout. Against Croatia, Argentina will have to avoid taking their foot off the gas, as they have scored the opening goal in all 5 matches and have had 2-0 leads in 4 of them. Croatia has had to battle to get to the semi-finals and will not give up against Argentina. In the center of the pitch, Atletico Madrid midfielder Rodrigo De Paul will need to remain on top form, as he has been able to clog their foes' attacks throughout the tournament, posting 8 tackles and a team high 7 interceptions. Messi has been let down by his supporting cast in the past. And in what should be his final World Cup, the entire country will be doing everything they can to deliver the trophy missing on his mantle.

Croatia:

Pre tournament odds: +5000

Current odds: +750

Next opponent: Argentina

Croatia is looking to get to their second straight World Cup final after falling to France 4-2 in the final of 2018. Considering they came in with the 11th best odds, it is a shock to see them competing in the late stages of the tournament again. After a pair of 0-0 draws and a 4-1 rout of Canada in the group stage, Croatia finished 2nd in Group F, behind another surprise Semi-finalist in Morocco. They then won back-to-back penalty shootouts in the Round of 16 and the Quarter Finals on the back of wonderful saves from goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic. Livakovic has been the highlight of the tournament for Croatia, making 5 saves on 8 penalties, and allowing just 3 goals on 23 shots. Livakovic plays club football at Dinamo Zagreb in his native Croatia. And at only 27 years old, he has instantly created a very bright future for himself. While having a wall at the back is always reassuring, Croatia will need to stay on the front foot if they are to compete with Argentina and book their spot in the final. Captain Luka Modric continues to turn back the clock and pull the strings in the midfield, creating beautiful attacking moves, while leading the team in interceptions with 8. Modric won the Golden Ball in 2018 and will be looking to become the first 2-time winner in Qatar. Croatia has a very solid defense and a potent counter attack, making them a prime giant slayer candidate. Despite being out shot 11-1 against tournament favorite Brazil, their defense held strong and found the goal they needed on the counter. If they stick to their game plan and avoid an early goal against, there is no reason to doubt Croatia’s abilities in their final 2 matches.

Semi-Final Prediction:

Croatia will be able to limit Messi and Argentina early in the match, keeping the game goalless heading into halftime. Once the second half commences, Argentina will be looking to go all out and find the winner but will cost them on the break. Croatia will find themselves with a 1-0 lead midway through the half, before Messi does what he does best, and finds the equalizer late in the game. After a drab period of extra time, Livakovic does his best, but ultimately falls short as Argentina advances on penalty kicks, giving Messi a chance to avenge the 2014 final, and cement himself as the GOAT.

Best bets: 

Draw +220

Argentina to advance: -250

France:
Pre tournament odds: +600

Current odds: +110

Next opponent: Morocco

France was able to battle through adversity and lift the 2018 World Cup, beating Croatia in the final by a score of 4-2. In 2022, they are looking to become the first back-to-back champions since Brazil in 1962. Heading into Qatar, France were plagued with injuries, after star midfielders Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante were dealt tournament ending injuries. Just days before kick off, Ballon D’Or winner Karim Benzema was also ruled out of the tournament with a thigh injury. While the injuries hurt, France has a squad so deep that they were able to fill in the holes and still dominate in Qatar. After beating Australia and Denmark in the opening 2 games, they rotated their squad and fell to Tunisia in the final group stage game. They were able to easily swat aside Poland in the Round of 16, before edging England in a tight Quarter Final by a score of 2-1. France’s main man Kylian Mbappe has been his usual self, scoring 5 goals and adding on 2 assists. Mbappe is one of the quickest players in the world and excels at beating his defenders in the open field. Joining him in attack is France’s all-time leading goal scorer, Olivier Giroud. Giroud lacks the pace Mbappe brings, but he is lethal in front of goal and is a severe aerial threat, scoring 4 goals, second in the tournament to Mbappe. The combination of Giroud and Mbappe gives France a deadly attack that sits in front of a solid defense. On the back line, Dayot Upamecano has been able to nullify crosses, while Adrien Rabiot and Aurelien Tchouameni have cut the passing lanes. Against Morocco, the attack will certainly be tested, as Morocco has conceded just 1 goal in the 5 games in Qatar. If France can jump out to an early lead, they may have an easy path to the final. However, if the Moroccan defense holds firm, they will be in for a long afternoon.

Morocco:

Pre tournament odds: +20000

Current odds: +900

Next opponent: France

No matter what happens, Morocco will be proud. They have become the first African nation to reach the semi finals and just the third non-European or South American nation to achieve this feat. Morocco has found success thanks to their sturdy defense that has allowed only one goal in the tournament, which was an own goal against Canada. The star of the team has been Achraf Hakimi, putting in work on the offensive and defensive end. At the back, he has 19 tackles and 7 interceptions, both of which are team highs. In attack, he posted an assist in the group stage, and buried the decisive penalty against Spain. While Hakimi has been a star, the success of Morocco has been an all-around team effort, led by head coach Walid Regragui. Regragui has put together one of the best defenses in World Cup history and will be getting a pretty penny after his team’s performance. Morocco has truly been able to defy the odds, but a French attack will feel confident they have what it takes to unlock the Moroccan defense. If France gets a lead, the game is over. However, the longer the Moroccan defense can hold out, the more frustrated France will become.

Semi Final Prediction:

As much as it hurts to see the Cinderella story come to an end, and I’m sure this has been said before, I just can’t imagine Morocco getting the job done. They have had some stellar defensive performances. However, when France scores early, this contest will be over. After the first goal goes in, Morocco will come out of their shell and stray from what has brought them success. I expect a 3-0 victory as France cruises into the Finals.

Best bets:

France win to nil: +110

France to win 3-0: +1100

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