PGA Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Predictions and Golf Odds
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am no longer draws the biggest names in the PGA Tour. Most tour pros today don’t like to play with amateurss and they are not fans of playing multiple courses over four days. Frankly, their loss because to us golf fans, Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach are wonderful golf courses that are appreciated for their beauty and old-time charm.
This week, 156 players and their partners will play those two tracks and Monterey Peninsula C.C. Shore Course Thursday through Saturday. The top 60 and ties will play Sunday at Pebble, and some of their partners will try and win the prestigious Pro-Am part of the event.
The Golf Channel will have four days of coverage, with Saturday and Sunday earlier at 1 p.m. EST, with CBS taking over at 3 p.m. EST.
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A Look at the Field
Here is a look at the Top 12 and ties with the lowest golf odds to win it all at online sportsbooks.
Patrick Cantlay +700 - Daniel Berger +1200 - Jason Day +2000 - Jordan Spieth +2000
Maverick McNealy +2200 - Cameron Tringale +2500 - Justin Rose +2500
Seamus Power +2500 - Matthew Fitzpatrick +3300 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4000
Kevin Kisner +4000 - Kevin Streelman +4000 - Lanto Griffin +4000
Mackenzie Hughes +4000 - Mito Pereira +4000 - Ryan Palmer +4000
Cantlay is an obvious choice, and he is playing as well as anyone since winning the Tour Championship to end last season. He’s finished 4th and 9th in two 2022 starts and is 1st in greens in regulation and 2nd in birdie average.
Berger is the defending champion, but it’s always hard to repeat. Berger has a 5th and T20 last week in 2022 and figures to be a factor this week.
Day is currently healthy and is coming off a T3 last week at Torrey Pines. We'll find out this week if last week will turn into a series of good showings or an outlier performance.
Speith was hovering around a group of Top 20 finishes until he shot 78 last Friday and missed the cut in San Diego. He’s lost something since playing so well in the spring and the summer. He could win or finish 40th.
The players drawing the biggest buzz are McNealy and Tringale. McNealy has played as often as any player and has five Top 30’s in his latest starts. He’s 4th in scoring average this season and has placed 5th and 2nd on the Monterey Peninsula in his past two starts. Tringale is a bit of a wild card, with three Top 10’s (two that were Top 5’s) and a pair of missed cuts.
Because the field lacks depth, there are any number of golfers that could come off the pace and surprise.
Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets
Monterey Peninsula C.C. Shore Course – This layout is back in the rotation, and this is where you have to score to have a chance to play on Sunday. The fairways are generous to accept tee shots. And though there are bunkers and waste areas, they seldom come into play for the pros.
The greens are far and away the largest of the three courses at 6,000 square feet, which is still below tour average (6,500). With the par at 71, three under is thought as the bare minimum needed to make the cut.
Spyglass Hill – Though Pebble is renowned for its natural beauty, the first five holes at Spyglass are as good as any golfer will see. After that, the players head inland to thickly tree-lined fairways, which prevent the wind from being a problem.
When there are normal conditions, this is the hardest of the three layouts. With a par of 72 and four Par 5’s, at just over past 7,000 yards, you would think these players would eat those holes up. But an errant tee shot can become immediate trouble, along with 5,000 sq. feet of putting surfaces, which makes Spyglass well below the norm for eagles surrendered.
Pebble Beach – One of the most picturesque courses in golf is one of the shortest, clocking in at just under 7,000. There is no length to speak of anywhere, but the greens are a minuscule 3,500 feet on average.
If the wind blows off the ocean, along with typically dense air, several holes can play two clubs longer. And if there is more of a cross wind, hitting pinpoint shots is cumbersome.
To compete for a title or a Top 10 finish, golfers have to score well at Monterey Peninsula and make accurate second (Par 4’s) or third shots (some Par 5’s) at Spyglass and Pebble Beach. With green conditions changing with the weather, all golfers will have to adapt to what time of day they are playing.
Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week
Cantlay is the obvious choice. However, with this field, he might not be dialed in mentally. Probably a small Top 5 bet or pass altogether.
As mentioned, it is hard to repeat, so Berger as a Top 5 or Top 10 choice is not a bad choice.
For Top 20 wagering, the first eight players are even or minus odds, so be choosy. Justin Rose and Seamus Power look like solid even money bets for this category, and a longer shot is Mito Pereira (+165) playing in a generally weaker field after a series of Top 30 finishes.
Bottom line, not an easy week for picks, use caution.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports was in the golf business for over 20+ years and understands the ins and outs of what it takes to find winners on the Tour. Doug has won each of the past three weeks, he’s picked up +1,160 of profit.
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Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has - 23 Documented No. 1 Titles - 96 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 2 Handicapper of the Month Awards. (Latest: MLB September 2021) Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several football newsletters.
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