NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: Advice and Predictions
Week 3 of the NFL season was loaded with upsets. Underdogs were 10-6 outright and 10-5-1 ATS in the hectic slate of games. The most notable upsets were the Colts over the Chiefs, the Dolphins over the Bills, and the Jaguars over the Steelers. The Eagles and Dolphins are the only remaining 3-0 teams, while the Raiders are the only 0-3 team in the NFL. If you have been smart enough to navigate through the madness of the week and are still alive in your survivor pools, here are my Week 4 survivor plays ranked from strongest to weakest.
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Packers (-10.5) over Patriots
The Packers enter this matchup 2-1 and coming off a narrow victory over the Buccaneers. The biggest reason for optimism in this matchup is that Mac Jones will be out due to a high ankle sprain and unable to play. Green Bay has not quite found its stride this year but still has enough talent to make a playoff push. Expect the Patriots to hang around in the matchup but for the Packers to comfortably get the win.
Giants (-3) over Bears
There was a large amount of buzz growing surrounding the Giants prior to their Monday night loss at the hands of the Cowboys. Daniel Jones has begun to progress in his development, and Saquon Barkley has shown flashes of the old version of himself. While Justin Field and the Bears have also shown some positive flashes, New York is the more complete team and will look to get back on track this week. Count on the Giants to get in the win column in Week 4.
Lions (-4.5) over Seahawks
Geno Smith and the Seahawks got off to a hot start to the season by taking down Russell Wilson and the Broncos in Week 1. They have now fallen to 1-2 and taken a notable step back since that time. The Lions also find themselves with a 1-2 record but have produced 28.6 points per game and been competitive in both losses. Detroit is the more complete football team and should be expected to capitalize and secure the victory over Seattle.
Raiders (-2) over Broncos
The Broncos may have a record of 2-1 but have been one of the more disappointing teams to start the season. They have scored a total of just 43 points through the first three weeks of the season, and Russell Wilson has not looked like the quarterback the organization hoped. The Raiders have also been a disappointment as they are the only 0-3 team in the NFL despite carrying postseason aspirations prior to the season. If they are to have any chance of getting their season back on track, they must pick up a win in this matchup. Count on them to play with a desperation that drives them to victory in this divisional matchup.
Sunday Night: Chiefs (-2) @ Buccaneers
Each of these teams holds a 2-1 record and comes off a disappointing loss. The Buccaneers were taken down by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, while the Chiefs surprisingly lost at the hands of the Colts. Kansas City failed to get any sort of running game going and saw their playbook cut short as a result. Don’t expect this to occur two weeks in a row and for the Chiefs to have an improved game plan. Count on Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to have a bounce-back week and for them to cruise to a victory over Tampa Bay.
Sunday Morning in London: Vikings (-2.5) over Saints
The Vikings have not looked to be the impressive team it was hoped through the first three weeks of the season but have a chance to get back on top against the Saints. They still hold a record of 2-1 even despite the growing pains. Jameis Winston has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns thus far, and until this changes the Saints do not have great chances of winning. Expect Minnesota to put forth a convincing effort on why they should be more on the national map and advance to 3-1.
Commanders (+3.5) over Cowboys
Dak Prescott has not shut down the possibility of returning to play this week, but the team has looked solid with Cooper Rush under center. Dallas is coming off an impressive Monday night victory over the Giants. In contrast, the Commanders are coming off a loss at the hand of another NFC East team, the Philadelphia Eagles. With the Cowboys slightly overperforming and the Commanders in need of a win, expect Washington to pull off the upset. Carson Wentz looked significantly better in the second half of the Eagles matchup, and if he can build off this the team will be in good shape.
Cardinals (+1.5) over Panthers
There are reasons for concern with each of these teams through the first three weeks. Baker Mayfield has struggled with the Panthers, and the Cardinals have become overly reliant on Kyler Murray making a special play. While this backyard style of football may not be best for long-term success, it should be enough for them to get by Carolina. Murray is the most dynamic player in the matchup, and this should be enough to lead Arizona to a victory.
Steelers (-3.5) over Jets
Their one-point victory over the Browns in Week 2 has been the lone bright spot for the Jets so far this season. Joe Flacco leads the NFL in passing attempts, which is strong evidence of how much the team has been forced to play from behind. The Steelers are coming off back-to-back losses and will have the home crowd behind them. Expect the battle between the Steelers wide receivers and Jets corners to play a major role in who comes out on top. Count on Pittsburgh to come in focused and take advantage of this winnable matchup.
Eagles (-6.5) over Jaguars
The Eagles have looked terrific to start the season, as evidenced of their 3-0 record. With former Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson returning to Philadelphia, emotions are sure to be high. The Jaguars have also impressed greatly and are coming off convincing victories over the Chargers and Colts. This matchup will likely be close throughout, but the Eagles seem too complete for Jacksonville to get the better of them.
Browns (-1.5) over Falcons
The Cleveland Browns have had some extra time to rest following their Thursday night victory over the Steelers. They have a terrific chance to keep this momentum going as the Falcons are still in their rebuilding process. Atlanta has shown more fight than expected and is coming off a victory over the Seahawks. However, expect the Browns running game to be the difference and for Cleveland to advance to 3-1.
Chargers (-5.5) over Texans
Many consider the Chargers a popular pick for the week as they are set to face off against the Texans, who are among the NFL’s bottom feeders. Their 0-2-1 record is discouraging. However, the team has competed in each matchup and had some positive flashes. The Chargers are coming off a disappointing 38-10 loss to the Jaguars, with Justin Herbert’s rib injury still a concern. Counting on the Chargers to get the win appears a safe bet, but expect this game to remain closer than most think.
Ravens (+3.5) over Bills
The Bills will be hungry for revenge following their upset loss at the hands of the Dolphins where they made some notable clock management errors. Unfortunately for them, the Ravens are not a team that will roll over, and Lamar Jackson is playing like a man on a mission. This is sure to be a thrilling matchup that may be better to stay away from, but the Ravens could be primed for an upset. Buffalo should be considered a legitimate contender and a complete team regardless, but Baltimore is flying under the radar so far this season and will be looking to make a statement.
Colts (-3) over Titans
After looking to be one of the bigger disappointments around the NFL through the first two weeks, the Colts pulled off the upset victory over the Chiefs in Week 3. The Titans are coming off a hard-fought victory over the Raiders but have a 1-2 record on the year. Expect the Colts to ride the momentum from last week and pick up another victory. They are a more complete team than they showed through the first two weeks and will take another step toward proving this by taking down the Titans.
Thursday Night Game: Bengals (-3.5) over Dolphins
The Bengals started the season 0-2 but took down the Jets in Week 3 in their first step to righting the ship. They will have a more difficult task against the 3-0 Dolphins who have arguably the two most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Miami’s 21-19 victory over Buffalo the was a statement win, but it was a weird game in which Miami ran just 39 plays compared to the Bills' 90 snaps. This is a big game for both teams, but I expect the Bengals to take a step toward getting back to the contenders they are capable of being.
Monday Night: 49ers (-2.5) over Rams
A rematch of the 2021 NFC Championship is slated for the Monday Night matchup with the Rams and 49ers set to run it back. The Rams are coming off back-to-back victories following their opening week loss to the Bills. Jimmy Garoppolo struggled in his first week stepping back in as the starter and led the offense to only 10 points. He is sure to put forth a more focused effort in this matchup as he shakes the rust off, but this will be a close game regardless of which way it goes.
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