NFL Power Rankings Week 9
This week marked the close to one of the most active and aggressive trade deadlines in recent NFL history. Pro Bowlers on both sides of the ball were being dealt left and right, and I don’t ever remember this many top-end talents changing teams in the middle of the season.
That said, don’t overreact to this week’s trades. It is easy to forget how incredibly complicated NFL game plans and schemes are. This isn’t baseball, where you acquire a power hitting third baseman and just throw him in the lineup. All these guys changing teams need time to acclimate, and it could be weeks before we see any significant returns for guys like T.J. Hockenson, Chase Claypool, or Bradley Chubb.
Chubb is a perfect example. The spread in the Miami-Chicago game this Sunday has already moved from Miami -4.5 to Miami -5.0 as rumors of the impending trade started to leak. Now that the Dolphins have acquired the oft-injured linebacker, I expect more public money to flood into them this week and I’ll be surprised if that line doesn’t continue to move upward.
On the other hand, it is tough to undervalue the long-term psychological impact that teams selling at the trade deadline has on the locker room. For a team like Detroit, which entered this season with so much hope, ditching Hockenson (within the division, no less) must look like a move that signals that the Lions are mailing it in on this season. For a guy like Dan Campbell, who relies so much on getting his overmatched guys to max out on effort, convincing the locker room that the organization is still trying to win now becomes a lot harder.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Buffalo Bills (6-1) – It has been a wild year for the Bills secondary. They have been without Tre’Davious White, who may be back within the next couple of weeks. They lost Micah Hyde for the season. And now Jordan Poyer may be done as well. Despite all the injuries and issues, the Bills are leading the league with 11 interceptions.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) – Last year the Eagles allowed opponents to complete nearly 70 percent of their passes. This year they are the third best pass defense in the league, allowing just 58.4 percent completions against. They are No. 2 in the league in allowing just 4.8 yards per attempt.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) – Andy Reid is 20-3 straight up and 15-8 against the spread in his last 23 regular season games with extra time to prepare. Including the playoffs, Reid is 18-9 ATS in his last 27 games after a bye week.
4. Minnesota Vikings (6-1) – Commander Kirk will be back in his old stomping grounds this week when the Vikings head to Washington. Cousins beat his former team in his only other game against them, winning 19-9 at home in 2019. This will be his first game in Washington since he left following the 2017 season.
5. Baltimore Ravens (5-3) – Run the ball. The Ravens dropped back to throw 30 times in the first half against the Bucs. Granted, Tampa Bay has a great run defense. But when Baltimore committed to the run in the second half, the offense took off and they scored 24 points to escape with a much-needed win.
6. Dallas Cowboys (6-2) – Should the Cowboys be concerned about the fact that they gave up 240 rushing yards to the Bears? Dallas’ pass defense has been outstanding this year. However, the Bears pushed them around. Were it not for Micah Parsons’ fumble return TD, then Sunday’s game could’ve done down to the wire.
7. Miami Dolphins (5-3) – I think the Fins are in some trouble this week in Chicago. Miami’s defense just took a beating from Detroit. Now they have to face the league’s No. 1 rushing offense, and the Bears are going to pound the ball 40 times on the ground. Then next week Miami has to take on a Browns offense that does nothing but run the ball. Miami’s front seven is going to get battered.
8. San Francisco 49ers (4-4) – The bye week is coming at a good time for the 49ers. They should get healthy over these next two weeks. And then they have a stretch of four home games in five weeks, with the lone road game at a neutral site in Mexico. This team could be about to go on a run.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-4) – That was a wet fart of an effort by the Bengals on Monday night in Cleveland. You could tell the minute that the opening possession ended with a tipped pass interception that the Bengals were beat. They rushed for only 36 yards and now they are facing a resurgent Carolina team that is going to incorporate the same game plan Cleveland did.
10. Tennessee Titans (5-2) – The Titans are allowing teams to convert just 25.6 percent of their third downs this season, by far the best in the NFL. Over the last three games, they are allowing just 18.4 percent conversions on third down and that’s allowed them to hold the ball an average of 33 minutes per game. Of course, they have faced Davis Mills, Matt Ryan (twice) and Carson Wentz in their last four games. So that helps.
11. New York Giants (6-2) – The Giants have been outscored and outgained on the season. In six of their eight games, they have faced a double-digit deficit at some point. Don’t be surprised when the bottom drops out on this group
12. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) – This is it. This is the week we find out absolutely everything we need to know about Brandon Staley and the Chargers. They are on the road, with an early kickoff, against a feisty opponent. But this team has had two weeks to prepare and get healthy, and right now they are desperate for a W.
13. New England Patriots (4-4) – Mac Jones threw 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions in his first 13 games last season. In his last nine starts, Jones has just 11 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. Jones has been picked off in seven straight games and in nine of his last 10. I have no idea why they are sticking with him over Bailey Zappe.
14. New York Jets (5-3) – Well, I pretty much nailed it last week regarding Zach Wilson. He is capable of some exciting throws that result from him extending plays outside the pocket. But those throws are just as exciting for the defense, because they always feel like a turnover is just around the corner. This team stinks, and I can’t believe I have them rated this high. Then again, look at what’s right behind them!
15. Los Angeles Rams (3-4) – Why was Cooper Kupp still getting fourth quarter snaps with a bum ankle in Sunday’s blowout loss to the 49ers? That was an egregious mistake by Sean McVay and the Rams training staff. The Rams are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and they are 4-10 ATS against teams that are below .500.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) – Why the hell would the Bucs ever run a jet sweep with Julio Jones, like they did on Sunday? At this point in his career Jones is a gimp, good for two or three looks a game, at most. I really think this team needs to get Scott Miller more involved in the offense. Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games and 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.
17. Green Bay Packers (3-5) – The Packers defense ranks No. 16 in points allowed and No. 27 in takeaways. They have allowed at least 23 points in five straight games and have just two games with two or more turnovers forced. They allowed five straight scoring drives to Buffalo last Sunday. Some of that is internal issues. I think most of it is a function of not playing complimentary football and the offenses’ issues bleeding into the defense.
18. Atlanta Falcons (4-4) – This secondary is a train wreck right now. Casey Hayward is out for two more weeks. And if the Falcons have to play without A.J. Terrell and Jaylinn Hawkins this week, they may give up 60 points to the Chargers. The Falcons are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring 30 or more points.
19. Seattle Seahawks (5-3) – The underdog has been the play in the Arizona series, with the puppy going 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings and 8-2 ATS in the last 10. Seattle won outright as a home underdog in their first meeting this year.
20. Cleveland Browns (3-5) – I think it is good for the Browns to have a bye after that big win on MNF. Cleveland would be in a prime letdown spot here after playing their best game of the season last night. Now they get to carry those good vibes through to next week’s big matchup with the Dolphins.
21. Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) – Is anyone really all that surprised that Josh McDaniels is losing? We really may have to consider renaming the Peter Principle after this guy. The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Jaguars.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6) – Last year the Steelers allowed 2,483 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry, worst in the NFL. This year they have fixed the run defense, and now they can’t stop the pass, surrendering 2,218 yards in eight games to go along with a league-worst 17 touchdown passes.
23. Chicago Bears (3-5) – I completely understand the logic of Chicago dismantling its defense as part of the overall rebuilding effort. However, second-, fourth- and fifth-round picks for two Pro Bowl defenders (Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith) seems like a paltry return. Especially when the Broncos got a first- and a fourth-round pick for Brad Chubb.
24. Arizona Cardinals (3-5) – The Cardinals outgained the Seahawks (315-296) in their 19-9 loss in Seattle on Oct. 16. The Cards have now lost three of four in the series, and the home team is just 4-12 ATS when these two teams meet up.
25. Washington Commanders (4-4) – This has to be the most fraudulent .500 team in the NFL. They have been outgained and outscored on the season. And two of their wins during this recent three-game streak were absolute flukes, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat from the Bears and the Colts. I’m not buying into this team for a single second.
26. New Orleans Saints (3-5) – If the Saints were smart, they would’ve traded Michael Thomas to the Packers for a box of bubble gum. The Saints are home underdogs yet again this week. This is the third straight home game in which they’ve been the underdogs and the fourth home game this season in which they’ve been taking the points. That’s already the most times the Saints have been home dogs in a single season since the 2005 Hurricane Katrina season.
27. Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) – The Colts fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady on Tuesday. It’s not going to make a difference. Frank Reich was already calling the plays. Indy’s problem is talent. Their skill position talent on offense is terrible, and the offensive line has been one of the most underachieving units in the NFL. Bill Walsh could be running this offense and it would still struggle to crack 20 points on the reg.
28. Denver Broncos (3-5) – Only the most cynical of Broncos fans would describe last week’s W as a “good” win.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) – In the final four minutes of each half, Trevor Lawrence is 34-of-68 for 331 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Kenny Pickett is the only quarterback with more picks. Lawrence is also 2-10 in his career in one-score games, and he is the opposite of clutch. I keep telling you: this guy is a dud.
30. Detroit Lions (1-6) – Why in god’s name would the Lions trade T.J. Hockenson? That’s the first issue; the guy is a beast. The second issue is why the hell would they trade him to another team within the division? Getting a second- and third-round pick back is nice if he doesn’t sign long-term and stay in Minnesota.
31. Carolina Panthers (2-6) – I don’t know why people are surprised that P.J. Walker is better than Baker Mayfield. Anyone that has watched either of them play in their careers should’ve been able to tell that would be the case. There is no scenario where either Mayfield (or Sam Darnold) should get the starting quarterback job over Walker, assuming everyone is at full health.
32. Houston Texans (1-5-1) – The Texans have allowed a league-high 1,302 rushing yards this season, surrendering a whopping 5.6 yards per pop. Good luck this week Philadelphia’s rushing attack. Houston is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 Thursday night games.
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