NFL Power Rankings Week 8
Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve pointed out the cash cow that NFL underdogs and NFL ‘under’ betting has been this season. Scoring is depressed. That leads to closer games and more value on taking the points. It also, obviously, leads to more games going ‘under’.
Week 7 was yet another winner for the dogs, who went 9-5 against the spread. The ‘under’ had a rare losing week, going 7-7, but has still cashed in 65 of 106 games this year (61.3%).
The quality of football is obviously descending. Anyone that has watched any of the Thursday night games will attest to that. I’m not going to give a 10,000-word deep-dive into why that is. There is no one factor. The overexposure of young quarterbacks. Bad coaching. The reduction of offseason and preseason work. These just scratch the surface of the issues that are diluting the NFL’s product. I wanted to point out a few more that I feel should be in the national discussion.
Professional football has an ebb and a flow to it. It’s been like that for decades. Generally, offensive innovation stimulates change. The defenses react. Rule changes usually follow. Then the offenses counter. And on and on we go.
That’s been the case over the last 15 years as well. The rule changes to stimulate offense and passing in the mid-2000’s and early 2010’s resulted in an explosion of scoring over the past decade. Three- and four-receiver sets became the norm, and veteran quarterbacks were chucking the ball all over the field with ease.
The defenses countered. Nickel defenses became the base. Teams put a premium on faster, smaller linebackers. Even the size and shape of defensive linemen changed, with stop units prioritizing quickness over the burly linemen that had been the industry standard.
Well, offenses adjusted again. And we’re seeing the results. There aren’t enough top tier quarterbacks to go around. So, offenses are going old school. The Ravens and Titans really leaned into it about four years ago, and now it has spread across the league: run the ball and play good defense. It’s a tried-and-true formula. And it is having a retro moment in the 2022 NFL season.
The Eagles, the Giants, the Bears, the Falcons, the Patriots, the Browns; these teams are pounding the ball down opposing defenses’ throats. In 2014, there were five teams that averaged 30 or more rushes per game. No one ran the ball, on average, more than 34.4 times per game. In the last three weeks, 10 NFL teams have rushed the ball an average of 30 or more times. Three teams – the Eagles, Bears and Saints – are running the ball between 34.7-40.7 times per game.
Not only have offenses reverted to a ground-and-pound approach, which is naturally more low-scoring and time consuming than the pass-wacky approaches of the 2010’s, but they are all running the same scheme.
The Shanahan-Kubiak offense has been around for 30 years. It has exploded across the league in the last five seasons, though, because of the success of Kyle Shanahan (whose dad invented it) and Sean McVay. Zach Taylor, Matt LaFleur, Brandon Staley, Kevin O’Connell, Nathaniel Hackett, Mike McDaniel and Robert Saleh all coached with either Shanahan or McVay (or one of their underlings). That’s nine coaches, out of 32, that are running the same offensive scheme throughout the league.
It sure makes it easier for defenses to game plan when nearly one-third of the league is running the same offense.
Finally, one other factor that I think isn’t getting nearly enough attention right now is that there is a serious offensive lineman shortage in the NFL. The number of good offensive linemen is dangerously low. The result is some pathetic lines, and those are hampering offenses as much as shoddy quarterback play or inconsistent play calling. There simply aren’t enough good linemen to go around, and it is hurting the quality of play across the league.
Again, this isn’t a comprehensive breakdown of what is going on in the NFL right now. However, it is a macro look at what I see as the changing tides across the league.
Adapt or die.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Buffalo Bills (5-1) – I’m kind of proud of Bills fans. It looks like they are getting used to playing in primetime night games, because we haven’t had a drinking-related death in Orchard Park in a few years. Great job Upstate New York! Buffalo is 4-0 SU and ATS against last year’s playoff teams, with an average margin of victory of 23.5 points per game.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (6-0) – This week is only the fifth meeting since 2008 between Keystone State rivals Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. I expect this game to be physical, chippy and violent. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS out of a bye week.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) – Travis Kelce is an absolute manimal. It is rare that you see a tight end singlehandedly take over a game, but Kelce seems to do it for stretches every week. The Chiefs also lead the league in defensive snaps for rookies, with over 1,100 in seven games. They are getting their young back seven a lot of work and hoping it pays off come January.
4. Minnesota Vikings (5-1) – The public has no love for the Vikings this week. Minnesota opened at -5.5, and that line has crept down all week, currently at -3.5. The Vikings have won four straight overall. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games, though, and have not been good in the role of favorite, going 2-8 ATS against teams that are below .500.
5. Baltimore Ravens (4-3) – I can’t imagine the mental letdown this team would’ve faced if it had blown another double-digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost to the Browns last week. The Ravens are now 0-4 ATS in their last four games. The market still likes them, though, as Baltimore opened as a one-point underdog in Tampa Bay on Thursday before quickly being bet into the role of a 1.5-point favorite. The Ravens are 1-6 ATS against below .500 teams.
6. Dallas Cowboys (5-2) – The Cowboys defense has allowed just eight offensive touchdowns this year and have allowed just one team, the Eagles, to score more than two offensive touchdowns in a single game. Dallas is now on a 5-1 ATS run, and most of it has been on the strength of that dominating defense.
7. Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) – With upcoming games against Cleveland and Carolina, two bottom-tier squads, the Bengals really have a chance to build some momentum and get the ball rolling downhill. The Bengals are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against the Browns, and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Cleveland. Cincinnati is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games.
8. Miami Dolphins (4-3) – I know the Dolphins won on Sunday night, but it is a red flag to me that a team can come out and look dominating for one quarter and then completely shut it down for three. If Miami is really going to be one of the best teams in football, they need to find that extra gear and that killer instinct. They haven’t shown anything close to that.
9. New York Giants (6-1) – I mean, at a certain point you just have to reward and recognize teams that are winning games and covering spreads. The Giants have been outgained on the season, and they have just a +20 point differential. And they’ve done so playing against a weak schedule. Doesn’t matter. They are 6-1 SU and ATS, and these guys just find a way to get it done. That makes them pretty much the opposite of teams like the Browns, Chargers and Saints that have more talent but find ways to lose.
10. San Francisco 49ers (3-4) – Mike Shanahan’s offense is averaging just 19.8 points per game over its last 10 games, dating back to last year. The Niners have gone ‘under’ in 8 of 10, and they have scored over 24 points just twice during that stretch. Eight of the last 11 meetings with the Rams have gone ‘under’, including five of the last six.
11. Tennessee Titans (4-2) – The fact that Tennessee is only a 2.5-point favorite at Houston this week – and that number has dropped from an open of 3.5, showing a heavy reverse line movement through a key number – and that tells you what the oddsmakers think of this team. But just like the Giants, you just have to shrug your shoulders and give credit to teams that win games. These guys aren’t good. But I’m not in a hurry to bet against them.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) – This is probably still too high for these losers! This is another team that plays like they think they are a lot better than they are. This team has no heart, has no mental or physical toughness, and no grit at all. This really is one of the softest teams in the league.
13. New York Jets (5-2) – Zach Wilson is going to get himself killed back there. I don’t mind that he likes to run around and turn plays into playground madness. But he is holding onto the ball way too long. His footwork and his decision making are questionable at best right now, and I feel an avalanche of turnovers coming from him in the second half of the season.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) – Mike Evans’ dropped touchdown in the first quarter is kind of the perfect highlight to encapsulate the first seven weeks of Tampa Bay’s season.
15. Green Bay Packers (3-4) – I hate to keep harping on it, but Aaron Rodgers is one of the worst leaders in the history of professional football. I get that his receivers stink. I understand. But just try to imagine playing next to that asshat? Instead of leading and encouraging and soaking every ounce of ability out of his teammates, he rags on them, embarrasses them, freezes them out and passively-aggressively undercuts them. He’s not the reason they are 2-5 ATS this season, but he sure as hell isn’t the solution.
16. New England Patriots (4-3) – The Patriots looked like they didn’t know that quarterbacks were allowed to run when they faced the Bears on Monday. They were completely befuddled. And by the time they finally put a spy on Justin Fields, it was too late; the Bears had scored three straight times after falling down 14-10, and the game was over.
17. Los Angeles Rams (3-3) – Remember: betting on teams coming off a bye because they “have had extra rest” as a handicapping angle is usually foolish. Over the last 12 regular seasons, teams coming off a bye have covered the spread roughly 50% of the time. That’s it.
18. Atlanta Falcons (3-4) – Well, the streak is over. After six straight ATS wins to start the season, the Falcons got taken to the woodshed. It was coming. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Panthers, but the favorite in this series has only covered one time since 2018 (1-5 ATS).
19. Seattle Seahawks (4-3) – Credit where credit is due: Pete Carroll is a Hall of Fame coach. The guy has done nothing but win everywhere he’s ever been (except for with the Jets; but the Jets don’t count). His teams run the ball and play hard on defense, and that’s what we’re seeing now. They are just 5-14 ATS after a win, and I don’t know how much I trust them as a favorite. However, the Seahawks have won three of four and are in the mix.
20. Cleveland Browns (2-5) – Four of Cleveland’s five losses this year have been by three points or fewer, and this team is circling the drain. Reports had players in shouting matches in the locker room after their loss in Baltimore, and the frustration is palpable for this group, which continues to self-sabotage on a weekly basis. These guys think they are better than they are, and breakdowns at critical points continue to cost them.
21. Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) – This week is basically an elimination game for the Raiders and Saints, two of the most talented teams in the league but two of the least disciplined. The Raiders must have the edge because of their quarterback stability, but I have a feeling that this is going to be one of the wildest and weirdest games of the weekend.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) – Since 2007, Pittsburgh is 47-26 ATS as an underdog, the second-best mark in the league in that span. They are 38-37 outright, the only team with a winning record in that span.
23. Chicago Bears (3-4) – This team is scrappy as hell. They aren’t very good. They have a severe talent deficit. But they play hard, they play disciplined, and I think offensively and defensively they are very much headed in the right direction. Looks like it is time for me to start laying off my action on their futures tickets (‘Under’ 6.5) with some moneyline bets.
24. Arizona Cardinals (3-4) – Did anyone think DeAndre Hopkins WASN’T going to have a major impact on this offense? He is still a Top 5 wide receiver and was targeted on 48 percent of Kyler Murray’s passes last Thursday. He’s fresh, and I expect Arizona to feed the beast again this week in Minnesota. Arizona is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 road games.
25. Washington Commanders (3-4) – Is there anything more damning of Carson Wentz than the fact that Washington played so much harder for Taylor Heinicke than they ever did for Wentz? Time to face facts: Wentz is not a likeable guy, not a leader, and not a quarterback to build around. Washington should stick with Heinicke, and Wentz should become a career backup.
26. New Orleans Saints (2-5) – Dennis Allen is a defensive head coach. Yet his defense has completely fallen apart since he has slid over into the big chair from defensive coordinator. The Saints are No. 31 in points allowed, No. 22 against the run and No. 29 in turnovers forced.
27. Indianapolis Colts (3-3-1) – I’m not stunned that the Colts are going with Sam Ehlinger. I remember hearing a lot of buzz about him last year in the preseason. Then he got hurt. Then he got COVID. He had a strong preseason, though, and his ability to make plays with his legs is 100 percent the reason he will get the nod over Matt Ryan.
28. Denver Broncos (2-5) – The Broncos have gone ‘under’ in six of seven games this year, and they are averaging just 14.3 points per game.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) – The Jaguars have lost outright the last six times that they have been favored. Yet they are favored again this week. Jacksonville is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite dating back to 2018, losing outright in all eight ATS loss. On average, they fail to cover the spread by 11 points per game when favored.
30. Detroit Lions (1-5) – The Lions are starting four rookies, one second-year player and two three-year players on defense right now. They are No. 6 in the NFL in rookie snaps on defense. It’s going to take time.
31. Carolina Panthers (2-5) – It holds true in all sports: when a team loses its best player, you always bet on that team the next game, no matter what. Sports teams always rally in the short term, and that’s exactly what the Panthers did on Sunday.
32. Houston Texans (1-4-1) – I think that the word “iconic” has become significantly overused. McDonald’s golden arches. The Nike swoosh. The Eiffel Tower. Those things are iconic. So many people try to slap the label “iconic” on things that are barely memorable.
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