NFL Power Rankings Week 3
Generally speaking, NFL offenses are usually ahead of NFL defenses early in the season. As a result, September is usually one of the highest scoring months of any given year throughout the league.
If that’s the case for this season, then we have a lot of ugly football ahead of us.
Through two weeks, scoring is down league wide. That’s too small of a sample size to warrant being considered a legitimate trend. However, it has been bad enough to raise some eyebrows and has had a significant impact on the totals betting market.
Teams are combining to average just 42.8 points per game through 32 completed games. That stands in comparison to the 49.6 combined PPG average of 2020 and the 46.0 PPG average of last year. If this season’s average holds, it would make 2022 the lowest-scoring NFL campaign since 2009.
After going just 5-11 against the total in Week 1, teams combined to go just 4-12 against the total again last weekend. Fins-Ravens, Commanders-Lions, Jets-Browns and Falcons-Rams were the only games to top the total last week. And the Jets and Falcons games only got ‘over’ because of furious late comebacks in games that were blowouts.
What’s going on?
There were zero points scored in the second half of the Monday Night Football game between Minnesota and Philadelphia. Zero. That came after there were just six points mustered between Chicago and Green Bay on Sunday night.
Maybe the adjusted preseason is having an impact. Maybe defenses have started to catch up with the Shanahan-Kubiak-McVay offensive schemes that have spread throughout the league. Maybe it is just a fluke. I’m not sure what the answer is, but right now is a very dangerous time for totals bettors.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Buffalo Bills (2-0) – The Bills have two of the four most lopsided scores so far this season, and their +55 point differential is No. 1 in the league by a mile. They are on a short week, in a potential letdown spot after a MNF win, and they have to travel to South Beach to take on a division rival as a road favorite. This has all the makings of a trap game. Then again, Buffalo has dominated the Dolphins lately. The Bills have won seven straight in the series by an average of 19.3 points per game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) – Jaylen Watson’s game-changing 99-yard pick six might be a play that we look back on in January as one of the plays that defined the AFC’s playoff hierarchy. Kansas City continues to be an outstanding early season bet and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 3. The Chiefs are 9-3 ATS after a win and on a solid 9-4 ATS run in their last 13 games overall. They will be facing a desperate Colts team this Sunday, but the road team is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven games in this series.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) – The Bucs offense will be fine if guys start actually catching the ball. Tom Brady was throwing darts on Sunday. His guys just couldn’t catch the ball. I feel like the Bucs offense is a week or two away from really clicking. When they do, this team will go back to looking like a Super Bowl contender.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) – Darius Slay really should’ve had five interceptions on Monday against the Vikings. Also, Jalen Hurts’ two touchdown runs were both amazing feats of athleticism and will. I have been driving the Eagles bandwagon all offseason, and I haven’t seen anything from them to make me think this team isn’t a legit contender in the NFC.
5. Baltimore Ravens (1-1) – I’m not going to kill the Ravens because they lost to the Dolphins. All the focus is on the fact that the Ravens blew that lead in the fourth quarter. I’m choosing to focus on what happened in the first three quarters and the fact that Baltimore was kicking the hell out of a really good Miami team. The Ravens couldn’t convert on fourth-and-one two times, once at the Miami goal line and once at the Miami 40. If they gain a yard on either of those plays, they win by double-digits. I’m not selling my Ravens stock just yet.
6. Green Bay Packers (1-1) – Aaron Rodgers lost to Tom Brady both times he faced him in the 2020-21 season, getting rolled 38-10 in Tampa and then losing 31-26 at home in the NFC Championship Game. Brady has beaten Rodgers in three of the four career meetings.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) – Mr. Analytics, Brandon Staley, should not have gone for it on fourth-and-seven down 10 points with 1:15 to play. At that point the entire game comes down to the onsides kick. You have to get to that point. Kicking the field goal would’ve guaranteed a shot at the onsides kick. However, going for it on fourth down and failing ends the game. Staley made the wrong decision and was rewarded with a touchdown, serving a brutal backdoor loss to anyone with money on the Chiefs Thursday.
8. Los Angeles Rams (1-1) – Meh. The Rams really just look like they are going through the motions. They are now 0-4 against the spread in their last four games, including the Super Bowl and NFC title game, and they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight. I want no part of Los Angeles as a road favorite this week, despite their domination of the Cardinals over the last five years.
9. New Orleans Saints (1-1) – Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael needs to give Jameis Winston some easier throws. Winston is a loser. He is a turnover machine. You can’t ask him to throw the ball down the field 30 times a game; he’s going to throw three interceptions if you do. The Saints need to give him some rollouts, some dump offs in the flat, some simple layup throws where receivers just catch and run. And there is absolutely no way that Chris Olave should be targeted 15 times when Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are on the field.
10. San Francisco 49ers (1-1) – Nobody in the NFL had a better week than the 49ers. The Trey Lance Debacle sorted itself out in the best way possible, with Lance getting hurt and put out for the season. Now San Francisco has to be on the short list of favorites to win the NFC. The body language of everyone on the roster was different with Jimmy G. back under center, and I think that this team is going to be playing with some mojo this week in Denver.
11. Miami Dolphins (2-0) – Talent wasn’t the question with this team. Tua was. Miami is now 8-1 in Tua’s last nine starts. I do still have some questions about his arm strength. I think he makes up for that by throwing one of the most catchable balls in the NFL. Miami is on a 10-2 ATS run, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
12. Las Vegas Raiders (0-2) – I’m not ready to bail on this team. They have faced two tough opponents and they still have a lot of talent. They are adjusting to a new scheme on offense, and it hasn’t been smooth at all. They will get there. That said, I want no part of this team traveling east for an early kickoff and dressing up as a road favorite. The Raiders are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games and just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) – Matt Canada is a college offensive coordinator who is trying to run a college offense at the pro level. Not surprisingly, it isn’t working out at all. That the Steelers players are admitting that they have no identity on that side of the ball is a major problem when they are in the second year of Canada’s system. They need to cut bait on Canada.
14. Minnesota Vikings (1-1) – That was a mess. I know that Justin Jefferson is the clear No. 1 guy in this offense. But the Vikings can’t go three quarters without targeting Adam Thielen and can’t be content with Dalvin Cook logging just six carries. The Vikings are 45-20 ATS in their last 65 games after a loss.
15. New England Patriots (1-1) – The home team has won four straight in the Ravens-Pats rivalry, and the Patriots have won four of the last five meetings. The underdog has been the play in this series, with the dog going 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games between these two teams.
16. Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) – Don’t get caught waiting for the Bengals to turn it on and recapture that playoff magic from a season ago. The reality is that the Bengals were 6-25 SU in 2019 and 2020. They were just 8-6 in mid-December last year, and they are 0-2 this season. So outside of one good two-month run last winter in which they went 5-2, the Bengals are 14-33 in their last 57 games.
17. Tennessee Titans (1-1) – This is another team that just doesn’t have the same physical edge to it that it has had in recent years. The Titans have been a chippy, borderline dirty, team under Mike Vrabel. Through two weeks, they don’t have that same edge. The Titans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 Sunday games following a Monday Night Football appearance.
18. Arizona Cardinals (1-1) – The Cardinals haven’t even been close to the Rams in recent years. Arizona is 1-9 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Rams. Los Angeles has covered the spread by an average of 12.1 points per game, so the number hasn’t even come close to mattering in those contests. The Cards are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
19. Cleveland Browns (1-1) – I pointed out last week how awful Grant Delpit was in Week 1, with several major breakdowns against Carolina. It happened again last week against the Jets. I don’t know why there are such communication issues in the Browns secondary. On any given play it seems like these guys don’t know what the coverage is. It’s a mess back there. The Browns are 8-21 ATS in their last 28 games against AFC opponents and 17-35 ATS in their last 52 divisional games.
20. Detroit Lions (1-1) – It is going to be interesting to see if the Lions can manage to play with the same fight, the same level of emotion, and the same attacking mentality on the road this week that they have shown at home in their first two games. These guys have scored 71 points in two games (they’ve given up 65), and dating back to last season are averaging 30.5 points per game over their last six.
21. Washington Commanders (1-1) – The dominating 2020 defensive effort from this team is starting to look more and more like an aberration. Washington was No. 27 in scoring and total defense in 2019, No. 25 and No. 22 last year, and through two weeks No. 27 in scoring defense and No. 25 in total defense so far this season. They were No. 4 and No. 2, respectively, in 2020. Throw in the improvements on offense, and Washington looks like it will be a reliable ‘over’ bet throughout this season.
22. Denver Broncos (1-1) – Wow. That’s all I can say about Nathaniel Hackett. There have been a ton of incompetent NFL head coaches. But Hackett is quickly launching himself into that Bobby Petrino, Urban Meyer, Marty Mornhinweg, Rich Kottite stratosphere. I don’t see myself betting a dime on this group while that idiot is in charge.
23. Atlanta Falcons (0-2) – This team has a lot of fight in it. And after playing against two of my Top 10 teams in the first two weeks, they are finally taking a step down in class this week while taking on the Seahawks. Unfortunately, the Falcons are at a big situational disadvantage, having to make back-to-back cross-country trips for games in Los Angeles and then Seattle.
24. Dallas Cowboys (1-1) – The Cowboys are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 divisional games, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on Monday Night Football.
25. Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1) – Anyone that’s read this column over the years knows that I don’t tend to overreact to things. There usually aren’t wild swings in my rankings from week to week. But I have completely bailed on this Colts team. These guys look like trash. They just have no weapons on offense. Neither the running game nor the defense look as physical as they have been in the recent seasons. And if that is happening against the Texans and Jaguars what is going to happen when they face real teams?
26. Carolina Panthers (0-2) – The Panthers currently have the longest losing streak in the NFL (nine games). Carolina lost on Sunday despite allowing just 60 total yards and zero rushing yards in the first half. Rookie left tackle Ikem Ekwonu has been a disaster through two games, and the turnovers, sloppy penalties and poor third down efficiency that have been hallmarks of the Matt Rhule Era cost this team another winnable game.
27. New York Giants (2-0) – I really, really hope the Giants win on Monday Night Football this week so that people will begin to think that this is a good team. It’s not. It is also not surprising that the Giants defense is off to a strong start. Coordinator Wink Martindale is one of the best in the business. And his blitz-heavy approach can be overwhelming to offenses that are trying to find their footing early in the season. It is only a matter of time before that secondary gets exposed and teams adjust Martindale’s scheme.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) – Jacksonville’s defense looks legit. They played better than the stats suggested against Washington and then shut out the Colts. The less that Jacksonville asks of Trevor Lawrence, the better they are. This team should shift its identity to running the ball and playing good defense. If they can muck up enough games, they stand a chance of staying competitive. If the goal is to win shootouts, then these guys are out of their depth.
29. Chicago Bears (1-1) – Much like the Giants, part of me wants the Bears to win this week (and Week 4 against the Giants) so that people start buying into Chicago as a viable contender in the NFC North. This is a bad football team, and this week’s tilt with the Texans is one of only six truly winnable games left on Chicago’s schedule (five of which are on the road).
30. Seattle Seahawks (1-1) – “Obviously, we’re not that good.” That was a direct quote from Seattle safety Quandre Diggs. I couldn’t agree more. Seattle’s home field advantage is legendary, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. But I wouldn’t expect the same level of emotion and energy from the home crowd this weekend against Atlanta that Seahawks fans had for the opener against Denver.
31. New York Jets (1-1) – Sunday was the first time since 2009 that the Yankees, Mets, Jets and Giants all won on the same day. The Jets are now 7-21 ATS in their last 28 September games. New York is 1-5 ATS after a win, 3-8 ATS against a fellow team with a losing record and 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
32. Houston Texans (0-1-1) – I don’t know what the problem is: Houston is undefeated and off to a great start to the season, going 2-0 against the spread! This week’s game in Chicago will be a rare chance for the Texans to get a win. Apparently, there is some sharp money coming in on Houston in this matchup. The spread in this game opened at 3.0 and has been bet down off the key number down to 2.5 despite 70 percent of the action coming in on the Bears.
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