NFL Power Rankings Week 1
“Who is going to win the Super Bowl?”
I probably get asked this question more than any other. When people find out that I am a professional sports handicapper, their first question comment is usually something like, “So you’re a bookie.” I then explain to them that I am the exact opposite of a bookie. I’m the guy that beats the bookie.
Once we get that straight, the next question is always something about who is going to win the championship of whatever sport is currently underway. World Series. NBA Finals. March Madness. Whatever.
And since the NFL is always on people’s minds, 12 months a year, I get asked about the Super Bowl winner more than any other sport. And my answer is always the same.
“I have no idea.”
I’m not a fortune teller. I don’t have a crystal ball or practice the Dark Arts. I don’t own Grays Sports Almanac. Predicting the future isn’t an accurate representation of what it is that I do.
I’m a handicapper. I analyze data. I use a mixture of predictive statistics and knowledge of group psychology to make projections. And then from those projections I find value in the sports betting market. It’s not as easy as I’m making it sound. But it is pretty straightforward.
We’ve already begun the six-month gambling gauntlet that is the NFL campaign. And as we approach the eve of the first games of the regular season, my focus isn’t on who will make the playoffs or who will bask under the balloon drop that accompanies the end of the super Bowl. My sole and 100 percent focus is on the lines and totals in Week 1.
I’ve been staring at these numbers for months, since they were first posted back in May. I’ve been dreaming about them. And my goal is to simply, slowly, methodically build my bank account on the blood, sweat and tears of everyone associated with the NFL.
That’s it. Win this week. And then next week. And then the next. That’s where my focus is and that’s where yours should be.
Because, to be honest, I don’t really care who wins the Super Bowl.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) – They still have Patrick Mahomes, they still have Andy Reid, they still have a solid arsenal of weapons and Super Bowl pedigree on defense. This isn’t a perfect team. They have a daunting schedule, a loaded division, and depth issues on defense. I still think they are championship caliber and I think that they are a bit undervalued heading into the season.
2. Buffalo Bills (0-0) – I still question the mental and emotional fortitude of this team. They carry the weight of their crushing loss to the Chiefs last year and a three-decade history of failure. I worry about this team’s ability to handle the adversity that is destined to come their way in a stacked conference. Just think about it: after months of hype and bandwagon hoppers, imagine what the vibe around this team is going to be if they lose Thursday night in Los Angeles. Wasn’t Cleveland Everyone’s Preseason Super Bowl Team last year? How did that work out again?
3. Los Angeles Rams (0-0) – I really am surprised that the defending champions are home underdogs against Buffalo on Thursday. Is that an indicator that this team is undervalued heading into the season? The core of this team is still the same, and offensively I think Allen Robinson is going to give the attack another gear. The Rams have had exceptional injury luck the last two years. They’ll need that to continue if they want a chance to retain their crown.
4. Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) – It is still insane how poorly this team performs in one-score games. They went 5-5 in games decided by seven or fewer points last year and are a putrid 9-21 in those games over the last three years. At a certain point, it isn’t bad luck; you are just a choke team. The Chargers have as much talent as any team in football. Their offseason additions on defense give them the potential for a Top 5 stop unit, and the offense has all the key pieces back from a group that finished in the Top 5 in total offense and scoring last year. What’s not to like?
5. Baltimore Ravens (0-0) – Last season the Titans set an NFL record for most players used during a season. Baltimore wasn’t far behind. They were No. 2 in the league in starts lost to injury and in adjusted games lost. Toss in a -11 turnover differential, and there are some clear signs that this team should be back among the NFL elite this fall.
6. Green Bay Packers (0-0) – The Packers have a Top 5 defense and a Top 5 quarterback. However, they have zero chance of winning a Super Bowl this year. That’s not just me trading in hot takes. Aaron Rodgers simply isn’t a good enough leader to take this team through the onslaught that is the NFL Playoffs. The Packers went 12-5 against the spread last year and are 33-16 ATS in the regular season over the past three years. At some point the books are going to catch up to them.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) – The Bucs offensive line issues may be a little overblown. And the defensive line addition of Akiem Hicks may be underrated. The defense is going to carry the load while the offense finds a rhythm. This Sunday I’m expecting a much different game than last year’s 31-29 season opening shootout against Dallas. Look for the defenses to control this one as both front sevens control the early tempo and everyone finds their footing.
8. San Francisco 49ers (0-0) – I will be curious to see how much Kyle Shanahan babies Trey Lance in the opener. The Chicago defense certainly isn’t what it used to be. If Shanahan is aggressive, this could be a great opportunity for Lance to flex, put some big numbers on the board, and quiet some of the doubters. Or will Shanahan play conservatively and let his overall talent advantage guide San Francisco past the Bears?
9. Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) – Super Bowl losers generally have a horrible track record the following season. Especially runners up that came out of nowhere to make it to The Big Game. As long as Joe Burrow is upright, you have to like this team’s chances. They won’t be sneaking up on anyone this season, though, and it is a big difference, mentally, for a group to go from being the hunter to the hunted. We will see how they hold up under the pressure of expectations.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) – I like everything that this team has done to position itself for this season. They are physical, they are experienced, they are talented, they are rock solid in the trenches, and they look confident. Philadelphia will have a rock fight with the Lions this weekend, and I expect a game that is much closer than the 44-6 ass-kicking that the Eagles laid on the Lions in Detroit last October.
11. Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) – For the fourth year in a row, the Raiders defense is in a statistical range where we should expect a major bounce back. I am skeptical of the Patrick Graham hiring as defensive coordinator, though. His three previous defenses in Miami and New York finished No. 30, No. 12, and No. 21. This Raiders team looked very buttoned up and disciplined during the preseason. We will see if that carries over against the revenge-minded Chargers in Week 1.
12. Indianapolis Colts (0-0) – I feel like I’m a little higher on the Colts than a lot of other people. Matt Ryan still has plenty left in the tank. And, frankly, he’s the best quarterback Indianapolis has had since Peyton Manning. I worry that the Colts won’t be as proficient in the turnover department this season after finishing +14 again last year, their second season in a row in the Top 10. Indy is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games against the Texans and 10-1 ATS in Houston. However, Indianapolis is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 season opening games.
13. Denver Broncos (0-0) – The Broncos went 0-4 in games decided by one score last season and finished nearly two full games below their Pythagorean expectation. That’s not going to happen with Russel Wilson under center. Seattle was a consistent overachiever with him at the helm, and I think he still has plenty of magic left in his arm.
14. New Orleans Saints (0-0) – I honestly think this team would be better off with Andy Dalton rather than Jameis Winston. This is one of the best rosters in the league. They don’t have any clear weaknesses. Except under center. I don’t trust Winston to take care of the football, and I don’t think he will take full advantage of the plethora of weapons he has at his disposal. The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Falcons, and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in this series.
15. Tennessee Titans (0-0) – Think of the Titans as the anti-Chargers. Tennessee is 26-13 in one-score games over the last five seasons, including 6-3 last year. The Titans have had six straight winning seasons (59-38), beating their Pythagorean expectations over that stretch by seven games (52-45). At some point you’d expect ‘luck’ to come into play in some of those one-score games and for a mathematical correction to occur. Mike Vrabel is one of the best coaches in football, though, and has built a feisty, nasty team that can beat anyone, anywhere.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) – Don’t bet against the Steelers. You don’t have to bet on them. But I wouldn’t be in a rush to bet against them. This franchise has only finished below .500 once so far in the 21st century. They have made the playoffs 14 times in the last 20 years. However, they have only made the postseason in three straight years once since 1998. They earned a Wild Card last season despite being outscored by 55 points on the season. Do they have enough juice to continue their run of .500 or better seasons? I don’t know. I just know I’m not betting against it.
17. Minnesota Vikings (0-0) – This feels low for the Vikings. They have won seven or more games in nine of the last 10 years and made the playoffs three times in the last seven seasons. The roster is pretty static compared to what they’ve been packing the last two years, which is good. It really is all about the new coaching staff, which brings a fresh attitude and an offensive approach to Minneapolis. If that sticks, then this team will outperform this initial ranking.
18. Miami Dolphins (0-0) – We’ve got to see it first. I know that Miami has all kinds of buzz as an exciting, young, up-and-coming team in the AFC. But they haven’t won a playoff game in 22 years, and no one is talking about what a massive step down it may be going from Brian Flores to newbie Mike McDaniels. If Josh Boyer can get improved play from the defense, which dropped from No. 6 in 2020 to No. 16 last year, then there should be enough weapons on offense for Miami to at least be good for some annoying upsets this fall.
19. New England Patriots (0-0) – There are a lot of red flags flying over this team as we enter the 2022 season. Should the Patriots get the benefit of the doubt? That’s what happens when you have had just two losing seasons in the last 26 years. Even the most delusional Patriots fan must have some reservations about this year’s group. I will certainly be treading lightly and waiting for more info. In the meantime, we’ll stash them near the middle of the deck.
20. Arizona Cardinals (0-0) – I can’t sell my Arizona stock fast enough. Kliff Kingsbury is a consistent, proven loser. The Kyler Murray situation has cast a dark cloud over this organization and locker room. DeAndre Hopkins is kind of a weirdo. Hopkins, A.J. Green, and Zach Ertz are all on the wrong side of 30. J.J. Watt is a shell of his former self and can’t stay healthy. Last year was Arizona’s window to make a move. They blew it. I can see them massively underachieving and then cleaning house on this aging roster.
21. Dallas Cowboys (0-0) – I cannot emphasize enough what a complete and total anomaly it was that the Cowboys went 13-4 against the spread last season. They are one of the most public teams in all of sports betting and face inflated numbers every week. I do not see them being as efficient offensively, and I am calling for a regression to their +14-turnover differential. Mix in a tougher schedule and greater expectations, and this is going to be a team to fade all season.
22. Cleveland Browns (0-0) – This team and this franchise is just seeped in bad karma and just oozes sleaziness. At this time last year, they were getting buzz as a potential Super Bowl dark horse. This season everyone is writing off the Browns because of the sickening Deshaun Watson situation. The Browns will still run the ball and still play excellent defense. But you have to wonder about how much fight this group will have in a season that everyone is pretty much writing off as a loss leader into next year.
23. Carolina Panthers (0-0) – The biggest mistake that Matt Rhule made as a head coach was firing Joe Brady. In the 28 games that Brady was OC – 18 of which were played without Christian McCaffrey and all of which were played with below-average quarterback and offensive line play – the Panthers averaged 21 points per game. After firing Brady last year, the Panthers went 0-5 while averaging 13 points per game. Baker Mayfield isn’t going to fix that.
24. Washington Football Team (0-0) – Washington is another franchise that has been wrecked by injuries the last two seasons. Better health luck, along with an easier schedule, should lead to improved results. How you feel about Carson Wentz – and I’m not a fan at all – will determine how you feel about Washington’s prospects this season. Talent isn’t an issue. Neither is coaching. It really all comes down to the guy under center.
25. Detroit Lions (0-0) – The Lions still aren’t any good. But we know they are going to play hard every Sunday. Effort level wasn’t an issue last season as they scrapped and clawed their way to three wins. I expect more of the same this year from Team Grit. Offensively, I think the Lions are going to be a handful because of their powerful offensive line and commitment to the run. Defensively, they are still pretty bad, though, so expect a lot of shootouts.
26. New York Giants (0-0) – The Giants have been decimated by injuries in three of the last four years and have finished in the Top 5 in adjusted games lost over each of the past two seasons. These guys will improve simply by keeping their top guys on the field. This is one of the youngest rosters in the NFL, with 10 rookies on the two-deep and 21 of their top 44 non-specialists in either their first, second or third year in the league. Throw in a new coach and new system, and anything over “competitive” out of this group will be a major accomplishment.
27. New York Jets (0-0) – The Jets were outscored by 194 points last season after being outscored by 214 points in 2020. That means they have been outscored by an average of 12.4 points per game over the last two full seasons. Not great! Once again, a lot of statistical indicators – injury luck (third straight year), offensive YPP (second straight year), defensive YPP (third straight year) and turnovers – all point toward a bounce back. But it is the same crap over and over with this woebegone organization, so I wouldn’t expect anything more than the same 5-12 dreck we’ve come to know and love from the Jets.
28. Atlanta Falcons (0-0) – Atlanta was the league’s biggest Pythagorean underachiever in 2020 season, with their 4-12 mark a full four wins worse than their expected record (8-8). They made up for it last year, winning seven games despite getting outscored by 146 points. I think Marcus Mariota is going to have a solid year (if he stays healthy). However, the lack of high-end talent on this roster is pretty glaring.
29. Chicago Bears (0-0) – It is a complete and total tear down – yet again – for the Bears. Chicago continues to be one of the worst run organizations in all of sports, and the outlook for this fall is bleak. The Bears had a decent roster. They decided to gut it. Chicago has $56 million of dead money on the cap this year – over 25 percent of their cap space – and will have $99 million available next offseason. Not getting Justin Fields killed would constitute a successful season for this group.
30. Seattle Seahawks (0-0) – The Seahawks were one of the league’s biggest statistical overachievers in 2018, 2019 and 2020. That’s possible when you have a future Hall of Famer at quarterback. Now that Rusty Wilson is in the Rockies, though, it is time for Pete Carroll to pay the piper. Seattle is catching around 18 percent of the action in their Monday night tilt against Wilson and the Broncos. I’ll be surprised if this spread doesn’t hit 7.5 by kickoff.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) – At some point the Jaguars have to almost accidentally up their scoring. Here are their offensive yards per point numbers for the last four years: 20.5 (No. 32), 17.1 (No. 31), 18.2 (No. 30) and 19.7 (No. 32). That is four straight seasons among as one of the three most inefficient offenses in the league. Any improvement on that side of the ball should help take the pressure off the defense and help improve this team’s record.
32. Houston Texans (0-0) – The last time Lovie Smith had a winning record as a head coach was 2012. Since then, he has gone 8-24 as head coach of Tampa Bay and 17-39 as the head coach at Illinois. That is 25-63 in his last seven years as a head coach. So, excuse me for being excessively skeptical of his ability to steer the worst roster in the NFL to competitiveness this season. This team doesn’t look any better than last year’s pathetic array.
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