NFL Office Pool Picks Week 6 with Expert Analysis and ATS Predictions

by Sean Barnard - 10/12/2022

NFL office pool picks Week 6 Justin Fields Chicago Bears

There was a larger spread on several of the Week 5 NFL matchups, which led to some interesting results from the teams. Favorites went 11-5 straight up but just 5-10-1 against the spread. The biggest upsets of the week were the Texans (+8 and +260 ML) taking down the Jaguars, 13-6, as well as the Giants (+8, +300) taking down the Packers, 27-22. There also were some convincing wins from the top dogs as the Bills (-14) took down the Steelers, 38-3, and the Patriots (-3) put forth a convincing 29-0 victory over the Lions. The NFL season continues to surge on, and here are the Week 6 picks for each team.

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Thursday Night Game: Chicago Bears (-1) over Washington Commanders

In another ugly Thursday night matchup, the 1-4 Commanders will travel to Chicago to take on the 2-3 Bears. Both teams are coming off losses, and Washington has yet to cover a spread on the road this year. The over/under is set at 38, which is an indication of the lack of scoring expected in this game. The Commanders have been a threat through the air, ranking top 10 in the NFL in passing yards, which could be trouble for the Bears, who rank 22nd in total defense and 26th in first downs allowed. Even still, the Bears have forced 8 turnovers in five games, and this does not bode well for the turnover-friendly Carson Wentz. Count on the Bears to do just enough in front of the home crowd and find a way to get back to .500. Bears 17, Commanders 9.

San Francisco 49ers (-5) over Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have been the best team against the spread this season, as they are 5-0 ATS and are coming off a 21-15 loss at the hands of the Buccaneers. The 49ers produced a commanding 37-15 victory over the Panthers last week and are now 3-2 on the year. The defense is beginning to look like the feared unit it was expected to be, and Jimmy Garoppolo took a step forward in his command of the offense last week. Count on San Francisco to keep this momentum rolling and pick up a convincing win. They are beginning to look like the contenders it was hoped they would be, and this is a massive chance to further prove this. Niners 31, Falcons 17.

New England Patriots (+3) over Cleveland Browns

While they are playing in front of their home crowd, it is somewhat surprising to see the Browns favored by three points in the matchup. Cleveland is coming off back-to-back losses, including a last-minute missed field goal last week that resulted in the 30-28 loss to the Chargers. In contrast, the Patriots seem to be finding their identity as a smashmouth, run-oriented football team. Their 29-0 victory over the Lions last week was an impressive performance they will look to build off. Expect this one to be a hard-fought and close game, but for the Patriots to pull off the upset win. New England 20, Cleveland 13.

Green Bay Packers (-7) over New York Jets

The Packers took home the unwanted prize of the biggest upset allowed last week in their 27-22 loss to the Giants last week in England. Now back on American soil, and in front of their home crowd, they will turn their attention to the New York Jets, who have picked up some steam since Zach Wilson returned from injury. However, their 40-17 victory over the Dolphins last week may have had more to do with Skylar Thompson taking snaps under center as Teddy Bridgewater was forced out of the game with a head injury after just one pass attempt. New York will face a much tougher task against the Packers at Lambeau, where Rodgers has a ridiculous 88-20-1 record in his career. Expect this one to stay a little closer than most will expect but for the Packers to find a way to win and cover as Aaron Rodgers begins his revenge tour. Packers 31, Jets 21.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) over Indianapolis Colts

It feels as if it is never clear which version either of these teams will show up. The Jaguars were building some nice momentum to start the year but are coming off a brutal performance in which they were beaten by the Texans, 13-6. Jacksonville did not score a touchdown in the matchup and was held scoreless in the second half. However, it feels the Colts should never be favored by anyone. And had it not been for the dreadful performance of the Broncos on Thursday night, they would not have their 2-2-1 current record. This likely will be a coin-flip of a game, which drives me toward taking the Jaguars to cover as an insurance policy. If I have to make a prediction, I would also expect them to pick up the upset win. However, this is sure to be a messy football game.

Minnesota Vikings (-3) over Miami Dolphins

The biggest storyline to watch will be the health of the Dolphins quarterbacks as both Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are in concussion protocol due to head injuries in consecutive weeks. Whoever takes snaps under center will be in for a challenge, as the Vikings are coming off three consecutive victories and have a record of 4-1 on the season. Regardless of who ends up playing quarterback, count on the Vikings to continue their success. They are the more complete team on both sides of the ball, and Dalvin Cook has found his stride as the lead back. It will be an exciting wide receiver matchup as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will attempt to match the production of Justin Jefferson, but they simply may not have the quarterback behind them to make this possible. Vikings 31, Dolphins 17.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2) over New Orleans Saints

Joe Burrow has struggled so far this year and is a major reason way the Bengals are off to a 2-3 start. Their disheartening 19-17 loss at the hands of the Ravens last week will have the team ready for revenge. While the Saints are coming off an impressive 39-32 victory over the Seahawks in which Taysom Hill had his fingerprints all over the win, there are some legitimate concerns with the roster. The Saints have the sixth-worst scoring defense, and it also is unclear who will get the start under center. Jameis Winston has missed the last two matchups with a back injury. Regardless, expect the Bengals offense to be too much and for them to cruise to a double-digit victory as they look to get back in the playoff mix.

Baltimore Ravens (-5) over New York Giants

The Saquon Barkley show has been impressive to watch in New York and is the largest reason for their 4-1 start. The former Offensive Rookie of the Year looks to have regained form and has elevated the Giants offense in a major way. Unfortunately, he will be set to square off with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, who have impressed early on this year. Each of these teams rank top five in rushing. Expect the Ravens to find a way to win by at least a touchdown and cover the spread as Lamar Jackson’s dynamic play proves too much for the New York defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Neither of these teams are completely satisfied with their play to start the season. While the Buccaneers are 3-2, they have failed to put away teams in the way that has been desired and are coming off a 21-15 win over the Falcons. Look for them to produce a convincing effort in this matchup as the Steelers continue to solidify themselves as one of the bottom five rosters in the NFL. After putting up just three points against the Bills last week, don’t expect them to have much more luck against Tampa Bay. Buccaneers 31, Steelers 10.

Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) over Carolina Panthers

The sky seems to be falling for both of these teams. Carolina fired head coach Matt Rhule after losing their last two games by a combined 32 points and starting the year just 1-4. Baker Mayfield also picked up a notable ankle injury and is set to miss some time. The Super Bowl defending Rams have looked like a shell of themselves to start the season and are 2-3 and just 1-4 against the spread. While there is not much to be confident about regarding Los Angeles, this is a valuable opportunity to get back on track and they should be counted on to do this. While 10.5 points is a large spread, they are still clearly the more talented team and just need to put the pieces together. Rams 24, Panthers 13.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Arizona has had one of the toughest schedules in the NFL to start the season and comes in with a record of 2-3 while covering three of the last four. The Seahawks have been a surprise team this season with Geno Smith having one of the most impressive starts to the year of any NFL player. Smith ranks first in the NFL in completion percentage, third in pass yards per attempt, and has thrown nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. Even still, expect the Cardinals to find a way to get a win. While their losses (Chiefs, Rams, Eagles) are all understandable, the clock is beginning to tick on picking up wins. They are a better team than their record indicates and will be attempting to get on the right track. Look for Arizona to play with the necessary desperation and find a way to win in enemy territory. Kyler Murray’s athleticism is a problem for any opposing defense, and look for this to be a major key. Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20.

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

The heavyweight matchup of the week is sure to be this game. Each of these teams come into the matchup 4-1 and among the top contenders in the NFL. The Bills have certainly had this game circled on their calendar after Kansas City knocked them out of the postseason last year in controversial fashion, which led to the changing of the overtime rules. This is sure to be a thrilling game, but expect the hunger of Josh Allen and improved Bills teams to not miss the opportunity to get their revenge. Buffalo 38, Kansas City 31.

Sunday Night: Philadelphia Eagles (-5) over Dallas Cowboys

The NFC East has surprisingly emerged as the most difficult division in football as it has two 4-1 teams and the only undefeated team in the NFL leading the way. The Eagles will look to continue their perfect season against their fierce rival, as Dallas looks to ride the momentum they have had since the disastrous Week 1 loss. This game may very well be won in the trenches, as the Cowboys are second in the NFL in sacks and the Eagles offensive line is battling injuries. While Cooper Rush has exceeded expectations as the starter, he will face a difficult challenge against this Eagles defense. Expect him to come back to earth a little and struggle to put up points, while Jalen Hurts and the Eagles feed off the home crowd’s energy. Philadelphia 24, Dallas 13.

Monday Night: Los Angeles Chargers (-5) over Denver Broncos

Leading up to the season, this was looked to be a thrilling matchup. However, the expectations have certainly decreased. The Broncos have struggled to get anything going offensively this season, with Russell Wilson looking a shell of his former self. With him continuing to battle shoulder injuries, there is little expectation this will change. Against a much-improved Chargers defense, this should be expected to continue this week. Los Angeles is coming off back-to-back victories and Austin Ekeler looks to be finding his stride. Unless there is a drastic change in the Broncos’ play, count on the Chargers to cruise to a comfortable double-digit win. Los Angeles 31, Denver 17.

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