NFL Live In-Game Betting Season Insights

by Dave Schwab - 2/7/2022

With just one NFL game left to play in the 2021 season, there were certain betting trends that stood out over the past 20-plus weeks of games.

On the most basic level, favorites won 62.5% of the time in a straight-up matchup. However, underdogs carved out a 52.7% edge against the spread. The home team won 51.8% of the time straight-up, but they only covered in 48% of those games.

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The best SU NFL wager this season was on road favorites with a winning rate of 63.8%. Betting the games against the closing spread, road underdogs topped the list at 53.9%.

Betting the NFL total line right through the two conference title games had a strong lean towards the UNDER. Overall this season, the total stayed UNDER in 54.4% of the games played.

These betting results cover the basics of betting on NFL games during the 2021 regular season right through the playoffs. With the dramatic expansion of sports betting in the US market alone, how fans are betting on the games becomes a hot topic throughout the industry.

Genuis Sports is a data and technology company that specializes in data management, video streaming and services tied to technical solutions. More importantly, this company has strong business ties to individual sports leagues, media companies and sportsbook operators.

Ahead of this past NFL season, Genuis Sports entered into a landmark partnership with the league. Recent business metrics show that 97% of the US sports betting market is tied into official NFL data feeds that were supplied by the company’s industry-related data base.

Putting the technical aspects of this strategic partnership aside, one of the most interesting results was the overall NFL betting handle for live-in game wagers. Genuis Sports recently held its first-ever virtual investors report. As part of the Investor Day presentation, the company noted that 25% of the NFL betting handle this season was made up of live in-play bets on the games.

This percentage was in line with company expectations in the first year of its multi-year contract with the NFL. What really puts this figure in its proper perspective is the fact that 75% of sports betting volume in mature regulated markets such as the UK and Europe is wagered on live in-game betting options.

This paints a bright future for Genius Sports in terms of growth potential for its US partnership with the NFL. The company sees in-game betting as a larger slice of the market in terms of revenue. It heavily leveraged itself in terms of what it cost to secure the sports betting data package for the NFL, so a solid return on that investment is vital to the company’s future success.

From a financial standpoint, Genuis Sports is still projecting a net loss over the next two NFL seasons in relation to the cost of the contract. However, with an estimated gross gaming revenue (GGR) increase to 20% by 2024, the company expects to attain profitability within the US segment of its business.

The GGR this season was 13% and that is the projected figure for 2022 as well. It is expected to increase to 15% in 2023 before climbing to a level of profitability the following season.

A big part of these financial assumptions is tied to the increased growth of live in-game betting. As part of the company’s partnership with the NFL, it was able to become the official NFL betting data supplier to all the top US sportsbook operators.

The current list of gaming partners include DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet, WynnBET and Barstool Sportsbook.

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NFL Live In-Game Betting Season Insights

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