NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 3

by Christopher Delgado - 9/20/2022

Week 2 of the NFL season was madness!!! This weekend had me feeling like I was watching March Madness all over again. I couldn’t express how it felt to watch the jaw dropping fourth quarters that we saw. For bettors who are big on betting the underdog, this was a weekend to be alive for, as we saw five upsets and almost two more in Los Angeles and Kansas City.

As much fun as Week 2 was to watch, we have to get laser focused on Week 3, as we have many favorable matchups that will satisfy our bankroll. We do have a few upset picks listed down below along with some detailed analysis. Week 3 is really an important week for many NFL teams as we have to take momentum into account. After this week is when teams start to press the panic button or start to get a better understanding of their identity for the season.

Here we have a mix of conservative and aggressive picks where the underdog is in the perfect situation to strike. I don’t expect Week 3 to be as crazy as Week 2, but let’s take advantage of this 16-game slate and exploit the best possible angles that we can.

Without further hesitation, here are our Week 3 NFL confidence pool picks. As a reminder, these will be ranked from strongest to weakest. All picks are straight up and don’t involve the point spread, so these picks can be valuable for NFL survivor pools and moneyline betting. We will include the moneyline odds here for each matchup as well as the point total each pick is worth.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

1. (Worth 16) Kansas City Chiefs (-290) over Indianapolis Colts

From a survivor pool standpoint, the Chiefs are the team to go with. This team is absolutely scorching hot; they are firing all cylinders and have yet to slow down. I was a bit worried about the loss of Tyreek Hill, but Patrick Mahomes has made it very clear he is the captain of the offense and is going to make it work. It's important to pay attention to the Colts injury report as key players sat out last game. The Colts were helpless in Jacksonville last week. I don't expect to see any improvement from this past week to this week. The Chiefs are taking this game and are going to continue on their undefeated streak.

2. (Worth 15 points) Buffalo Bills (-225) over Miami Dolphins

The Buffalo Bills are probably the best team in football right now. They are Super Bowl favorites along with the MVP favorite leading the pack. Josh Allen is an absolute stud; he has great pocket presence and can run the ball down your throat. This team is loaded on both sides of the football and can make a Sunday look like hell for an opponent. I'm not too big on the Dolphins yet. They beat a weak Patriots team and had an upset victory against the Ravens, who had one of the worst fourth-quarter meltdowns I have ever seen. Let's look for the Bills to make a statement in the AFC East matchup as they make a pitstop in Miami.

3. (Worth 14 Points) Philadelphia Eagles (-290) over Washington Commanders

I’ll just get straight to the point with it. I'm rolling with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. The Eagles have a lockdown secondary that will take away the deep ball from the Commanders. The Commanders and the Vikings have very similar teams; speedy wideouts with deep threat capability and a solid starting quarterback. We saw how the Eagles took the Vikings down. Let’s take the Eagles on this one as they will also shut down the Commanders. The Eagles are one of the better teams in the NFC. They have a lightning-quick offense that can strike at any time, along with a solid defense line to put pressure on Carson Wentz. Wentz is a solid quarterback with a great arm, but he struggles to make good decisions when he is facing pressure in the pocket.

4. (Worth 13 points) Las Vegas Raiders (-134) over Tennessee Titans

This is a wonderful spot for the Raiders to obtain their first win of the season. This Raiders team is absolutely loaded with offensive firepower. The Raiders could have easily been undefeated as they matched up evenly with the Chargers and let a lousy Cardinals team come back in the fourth quarter due to sloppy play. On Monday Night Football, we saw that this Titans team is not the same as last year, where they earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC Playoffs. When it comes to facing a team that has too many weapons, the Titans defense can't keep up, and the offense is forced to play from behind, causing its ground and pound game to be ineffective. Ryan Tannehill doesn't have the receivers he once did. This game will go to the Raiders with no doubt.

5. (Worth 12 points) Baltimore Ravens (-164) over New England Patriots

Historically, the Patriots have dominated this matchup. Since 2013, the Patriots hold a 4-1 record against the Ravens. Granted, Tom Brady was a Patriot for four of those matchups. As much as I love Bill Belichick and Mac Jones, I do not see them walking out of this game with a victory. Lamar Jackson is on a mission to prove that he deserves a big contract. He faced a lot of backlash for the year that the Ravens had last year. They should have walked away with a win in Week 2 against the Dolphins. However, the defense was horrible in the fourth quarter, giving up over three scores to a persistent Dolphins team. I do not expect the Ravens defense to have a meltdown like that again. The Patriots don’t have a strong offense as they rely heavily on the run game and time possession. I can see the Ravens easily blowing out the Patriots on Sunday.

6. (Worth 11 points) Cincinnati Bengals (-220) over New York Jets

The Bengals played like crap the past two weeks. The defense did its fair share of damage control. However, It becomes extremely difficult to play defense if your offense can’t move the ball down the field. The Bengals struggled on offense against the Steelers and Cowboys, both of whom have solid defenses. Joe Burrow will use this as a bounce back week as he will have more time in the pocket to find his talent receiving corps. The Jets had a fluke win, putting up three scores against a solid Browns defense in the fourth quarter this past weekend. I’m not buying in on them and Joe Flacco. Let’s roll with Burrow on this one as this is a secure win for the Bengals in New York.

7. (Worth 10 points) Los Angeles Rams (-194) over Arizona Cardinals

The Rams almost had a horrific ending to their matchup against the Falcons. The Falcons almost sparked a comeback from being down 28-3. I know that the defending Super Bowl champs lost some players over the offseason. However, the majority of their core is still there. I guess the Super Bowl hangover curse is true. It’s Week 3, and the Rams have played very inefficient defense, as the Bills ran through them and the Falcons almost walked it off on them. I expect the Rams to shut down the Cardinals this upcoming week as they will force Kyler Murray to scramble out the pocket to keep the majority of plays alive. The Rams will clean up their sloppy play and execute behind the Works of Sean McVay. It’s about time the Super Bowl champs become levelheaded and realize that yesterday’s success isn’t tomorrow’s success. Don’t expect much from Murray as he is limited on offense and had to make magic happen on his feet against the Raiders.

8. (Worth 9 points) Minnesota Vikings (-240) over Detroit Lions

The Lions are surprisingly not as bad as I thought they would be. In the past couple of years, The Vikings have dominated this matchup. There's nothing eye-popping about this matchup other than Justin Jefferson. He is an absolute game-changer. The part that troubles me is Kirk Cousins. I believe that Jared Goff is a better quarterback than him, and Goff does have some weapons that he can work with to take down the Vikings. If Cousins is on point, the Vikings will take this game. He needs to find Jefferson more often than he found him against the Eagles. Granted, the Eagles have one of the better secondaries in football. Cousins has been pretty good against the Lions, so I'm going to ride with him. However, if he has the same hiccups that occurred in the Eagles game, he's in for a rude awakening.

9. (Worth 8 points) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-136) over Green Bay Packers

Both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are looking to add to their Hall of Fame resumes as they square off and Tampa this Sunday. The Buccaneers have some major injury issues, and Mike Evans will be serving a one game suspension for fighting for his bro this past weekend. The Packers, on the other hand, have been playing pretty well with Aaron Jones absolutely dominating aside from his fumble last week. I’m going to have to back Brady in this matchup as we have seen him take teams to victories that had no business winning games. The Buccaneers defense is one of the best in the NFL. In this NFC Championship rematch from a few years ago, I expect Rodgers to be hungry to get a win against Brady. However, he will fall short at the feet of grandmaster Brady.

10. (Worth 7 points) Dallas Cowboys (-142) over New York Giants

The Giants are favored to win this game, but let's look for the Cowboys to fly to New York and cause an upset at MetLife Stadium. The only reason the Giants are favored to win this game is because Dak Prescott is out due to injury, and they are on the road against an overachieving Giants team. However, Cooper Rush deemed himself capable of running the Cowboys offense. Rush drove down the field on a key drive to set up the Cowboys in field goal position to win the game. Daniel Jones has been carried by the play of Saquon Barkley and takeaways from the defense. Expect the Cowboys pass rush to get to Jones and force pressure. I’m rolling with the Cowboys on this one, as I truly believe they are the better team after seeing them shut down a loaded Bengals team.

11. (Worth 6 points) Carolina Panthers (+132) over New Orleans Saints

Picking a winner for this game is tricky. The Saints have a really good defense, and I believe that the Panthers offense is coming along pretty well. This game may be the breakthrough that Baker Mayfield needs. I’m going to roll with Mayfield as this is his third week of this offense. He will put the pieces together and help march the Panthers up and down the field to a victory this upcoming Sunday. The Saints had a difficult time in Week 1 against a horrible Falcons team. Also, Jameis Winston is dealing with an injury, which can be concerning going forward. The Saints aren’t looking too good at all for this matchup. They struggled heavily on offense last week and barely got the job done in Week 1. Let’s bank on Mayfield this upcoming weekend.

12. (Worth 5 points) Cleveland Browns (-220) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams are coming off of losses, and they are both shorthanded with their best player being out. TJ Watt is out due to injury, and Deshaun Watson is out due to suspension. Jacoby Brissett is a decent quarterback when he gets enough time in the pocket to make things happen. Last week, the Steelers didn’t get a single sack against the Patriots. It is hard for them to put pressure on the quarterback when TJ Watt isn’t on the field. If there is no pressure on Brissett, he will have his way with the Steelers defense. The Browns also had their defensive woes as Joe Flacco targeted open receivers one too many times. Let’s expect the Browns to get up early here and dominate the game with their ground and pound scheme as Nick Chubb loves to dominate in the trenches.

13. (Worth 4 points) San Francisco 49ers (-118) over Denver Broncos

Jimmy Garoppolo is back under center for the 49ers. This is exciting for me. Garoppolo had taken this very similar 49ers team to the Super Bowl just three years ago. I found it to be a slap to the face when they drafted Trey Lance and tried to work him into the starting quarterback job this season. I understand that Lance is good, but how can you turn away from a quarterback who would’ve won a Super Bowl if it wasn’t for defensive mishaps. Look for Garoppolo to make a statement against Russell Wilson and the Broncos. This Broncos offense is a mess, and the coaching staff needs to figure it out before I can trust them to be efficient in a game against a good team. My pick is Garoppolo and the 49ers as many people in the organization are happy to have him back under center.

14. (Worth 3 points) Jacksonville Jaguars (+265) over Los Angeles Chargers

The Jaguars have been playing stellar under Doug Pederson. The offense has made major improvements since last season, and the defense has been doing its thing. It is unclear how much Justin Herbert is going to participate this week in practice, let alone play this weekend. I’m a big believer in the Chargers and Herbert. However, I fear that one hit potentially takes Herbert out of the game. Due to the rib cartilage fracture, I’m going to take the Jaguars here on an upset spot against the Chargers in Los Angeles. Trevor Lawrence can get the job done, along with his new reconstructed offense. I think the Jaguars defense is going to bring the house down on Herbert knowing he will be taking the field banged up. Look for them to create turnovers or force Herbert to exit the game early.

15. (Worth 2 points) Atlanta Falcons (+108) over Seattle Seahawks

This is pretty much a coin flip. However, I’m going to ride with the Falcons just because Marcus Mariota has proven that he can make fireworks happen with the offense he has. We saw the Falcons put pressure on the Rams and almost take a win away from the Saints, two good defensive teams. The Seahawks in Week 1 came away with a win due to several goal line fumbles against the Broncos. This team behind Geno Smith has no real shot of being a good football team. Let’s bank on Mariota driving down the field and finding the end zone whether on his feet or through the air a few times here to get past this sorry Seahawks team.

16. (Worth 1 Point) Chicago Bears (-144) over Houston Texans

This will probably be the worst game in the NFL this week. I will be surprised if anyone even cares about this aside from Texans and Bears fans. However, this is a good spot for the Bears to cash in on their first win. Justin Fields is a talent. If I had to pick a winner in this game, I'm taking the Bears as they faced the 49ers and the Packers in the first two weeks, which was good preparation for a weak Texans team.

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