NFL Betting Predictions: Week 14 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/6/2022

NFL betting predictions Week 14 opening line report picks Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers

Week 13 is in the books, leaving us with just five weeks to go in the regular season. The playoff picture is slowly shaping up, and Week 14 will go a long way in telling us who will be in when the season wraps up. From a betting perspective, we went 1-2 last week. The Commanders tied, causing us to lose the -2.5 spread, while the Dolphins failed to cover in their loss to the 49ers. The lone win was sweat free, as the Broncos easily covered the +8. Before we jump into Week 14, let’s take a look at the biggest storylines from Week 13:

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Bills still have it: After going 2-2 in November, the Bills started December off right by easily swatting the Patriots aside. Their win, coupled with Miami’s loss, puts them in a great position to take down the AFC East.
Eagles keep getting better: The Eagles faced a serious test in Week 13, taking on the Titans. Jalen Hurts was able to throw for 3 TDs and run for 1 more en route to a 35-10 demolition of the 7-4 Titans.
Watson needs time: Expecting Deshaun Watson to come back and immediately turn the 4-7 Browns around was always a tall order. He threw for a mere 131 yards against a terrible Texans defense, but fortunately the Browns did just enough to get the win.
Vikings stay clutch: The Vikings are now 10-2, and 9-0 in one-score games. Mike White was unable to lead the Jets to their own clutch victory and gave the Vikings a 27-22 win. While 10-2 may look good, the Vikings will need to put teams away to be successful in the playoffs.
How bad can Wilson get? The Broncos stellar defense is going to waste, as once again their abysmal offense put up a lowly 9 points. Losing to the Ravens was always expected, but a 10-9 defeat to backup quarterback Tyler Huntley hurts.
Tagovailoa finally falls: Tua Tagovailoa entered Week 13 sporting a perfect record in games he’s completed, but the streak came to an end after Miami fell to the 49ers, 33-17.
The 49ers left reeling: San Francisco lost starting quarterback Trey Lance early in the season and just lost backup Jimmy Garoppolo for the rest of the season. Up steps the last pick in the 2022 NFL draft, Brock Purdy. A stellar defense can carry this team, but Purdy will have to make some key plays to keep the 49ers among the NFL elite.
Bengals vs Chiefs delivers again: When these two teams meet, chaos ensues. Another stellar performance from Joe Burrow allowed him to outduel Patrick Mahomes, giving the Bengals a 27-24 victory. A stacked AFC will lead to some intriguing playoff matchups.
Dallas delivers: The Dallas Cowboys scored 33 4th quarter points to rout the Colts, 54-19. The two-man running game from Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard is one of the most fearsome duos in the league.

Now that Week 13 is taken care of, we can move on to Week 14. The opening lines have dropped, and it’s critical to lock in value now. The lines will shift, and every half point counts when trying to beat Vegas.

Game 1: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Opening Line: Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

The Titans are hosting their AFC South rival and will be looking to increase their division lead. Despite getting blown out last week, the Titans will feel confident they can use their run game and outwork the Jaguars on the ground. Derrick Henry has been phenomenal this year,

as he sits 3rd in the league in rushing yards and has allowed the Titans to stay offensively competitive with an otherwise lackluster offense. Their defense ranks 9th in points allowed, making the Titans one of the more complete teams. For the Jaguars, they are coming into this one after losing seven of their last nine on the back of a blowout loss to the Lions in Week 13. They are bottom half in points for and points against, and there is really no reason to get excited about this team. A few good coaching calls has kept them at 4-8, but this line is simply too short. The Titans should be able to dominate them defensively and churn up the clock on the offensive side of the ball. The Titans are at home and should be favored by almost a touchdown. A line of -6 would raise no eyebrows, and I expect it to swell near that number before Sunday’s kickoff. Grab the -3.5 while you still can.

Pick: Tennessee Titans -3.5

Game 2: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Opening Line: Buffalo Bills -9

The AFC East remains one of the tightest divisions in football, and the Bills will be looking to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Josh Allen was able to lead the Bills to a dominant victory over the Patriots on TNF and will be hoping to use their rest advantage to help them succeed in Week 14. The Bills rely on a solid passing game and a top 5 defense to carry them throughout the season and should be able to beat the Jets at home. However, a spread of 9 in what should be an intense division game feels a little too many points. The Jets have made the wise decision to bench Zach Wilson in favor of Mike White, which should help them in their playoff push. The Jets possess a quality defense of their own and will be able to go toe to toe with the defending AFC East champs. I’m not saying they will win the game outright, but this feels like an inconsistent Bills team is getting little too much respect.

Pick: New York Jets +9

Game 3: Miami Dolphins at LA Chargers

Opening Line: Miami Dolphins -3

Tagovailoa’s undefeated season came to an end with a loss to the 49ers in Week 13, but that doesn’t mean the season is over for the 8-4 Dolphins. They are comfortably in the playoffs, but a loss to the playoff hopeful Chargers would make things uncomfortable quickly. The Dolphins are entering Week 14 as slight favorites over the Chargers, and it feels a little disrespectful to Miami. The Chargers are a mediocre 6-6, with a -37 point differential. They aren’t really heading in the right direction, either, but rather just hovering around .500. Justin Herbert has been good for them but has not been consistent enough, which was highlighted in their loss to the Raiders last week. The Chargers can look like Super Bowl contenders one drive and completely lost the next. That is not a formula I like to lay my hard-earned cash on, and will be backing the Dolphins to get back on track.

Pick: Miami Dolphins -3

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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 14 Opening Line Report and Picks

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