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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/22/2022

NFL betting predictions Week 12 opening line picks Matt Ryan Indianapolis Colts

Week 11 is in the books, and the NFL playoff race is beginning to take shape. With only 7 weeks left in the season, it is now or never for the playoff hopefuls. Last week, we went 0-2-1 on our bets. The Bills won by 8, falling half a point short of our -8.5 pick, the Bears pushed our +3, and the Vikings got blown out by the Cowboys. Our ATS record drops to 11-7-1 on the year. Before jumping into the opening lines for Week 12, let’s look at the biggest storylines from Week 11.


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  • Titans stay hot: On Thursday, the Titans improved to 7-3 on the year, after starting 0-2. Once again, the Titans are being underestimated, but should have an easy path to a third straight AFC South title. 
  • Goodbye Green Bay: The path to an NFC North crown appears impossible for the 4-7 Green Bay Packers, and Aaron Rodgers career is looking like it will end with a losing season. 
  • Dak dominates: Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys went into Minnesota, and blew out the 8-1 Vikings, by a score of 40-3. The game got so bad that CBS stopped broadcasting the beatdown midway through the 3rd quarter. Ouch. 
  • Bengals are back: After an 0-2 start, the defending AFC champs are back into a playoff spot after outlasting the Steelers in a shootout. Once Ja’Marr Chase returns, the Bengals will start looking even better. 
  • Here comes Washington: After a crushing Week 5 loss to the Titans, the Commanders found themselves sitting 1-4. However, Taylor Heinicke has stepped in for the injured Carson Wentz and has led them to 5 wins in the last 6 games, and a 6-5 record. Wentz is now healthy, but Heinicke will remain under center for the rest of the season. 
  • All aboard the Baltimore bandwagon: The Baltimore Ravens beat the Carolina Panthers by a score of 13-3 on Sunday, showing they can compete on both sides of the ball. Shutting down the lackluster Panthers offense won’t win you any trophies but has shown the league it’s not all about Lamar Jackson. Considering the Ravens haven’t lost by more than 4, they are certainly a team to watch down the home stretch. 
  • The 49ers run riot: The 49ers went to Mexico City and pummeled the Cardinals. From the opening kickoff, the outcome was never really in doubt as the 49ers had a complete performance. Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 4 TDs and 0 INTs with 228 passing yards. Efficient. 

After a crucial Week 11, Week 12 opening lines have dropped, and it’s critical to lock in the value now. The line movement seen in the NFL can create opportunities, but securing favorable lines early in the week can be the difference between winning and losing. Let’s get into it.

Game 1: Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars

Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens (-4)

The 7-3 Ravens head to Jacksonville to take on the 3-7 Jaguars on Sunday. The Ravens are coming off a lackluster 13-3 win over the Panthers, but a win is a win in the NFL. Lamar Jackson struggled from the get go, throwing his first pick in 4 games, and kept Baltimore off the scoreboard until the dying seconds of the first half. While the offense was not clicking, the defense certainly was. To win a game scoring only 13 points means the defense had to be sharp, and they were. The Ravens defense has quietly been impressing, allowing 22 or fewer points during their 4-game win streak. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars will have a tough task to break them down, and I don’t feel they have the firepower to do it. The Jags are coming off their bye and should be the healthier team entering the contest, but they don’t have the skill to match the Ravens. Lawrence has not impressed me during his year and a half in the NFL, and the Jaguars deserve to be a longer dog against Baltimore. A spread of 4 points feels very soft, and I expect this number to climb all the way to 6 or more before kickoff. Get it while you still can.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-4)

Game 2: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

Opening Line: Washington Commanders (-4)

After a dreadful 1-4 start, the Commanders have turned their season around and are primed for a playoff push. The key change was Carson Wentz getting hurt and Taylor Heinicke stepping in. Wentz has an 84.1 QB rating, while Heinicke is posting an 81.8 QB rating, but the difference is how the team plays around the QBs. Heinicke makes every player on the field play better and has led the Commanders to scrappy wins. The drive and intensity he brings to the field is exactly what is needed from a leader, and he is now 4-1 in the games he’s featured in this year. The defense for the Commanders is certainly helping, too, as the 2020 2nd ranked defense is playing like it used to. They held the Texans to just 5 first half yards in Week 11, and the game was wrapped up at the half. For the Falcons, they are facing Washington at the wrong time. Tight end Kyle Pitts is out with a hamstring issue, and the offensive weapons Marcus Mariota has to work with has dwindled even further. Their defense allowed 160 rushing yards to the Bears in Week 11. And with powerful running back Brian Robinson Jr. running at them in Week 12, there appears to be few paths to victory for the Falcons. Unless Cordarrelle Patterson runs for another kick return TD, the Commanders will be relatively comfortable throughout.

Pick: Washington Commanders (-4)

Game 3: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Opening Line Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Indianapolis welcomes the Pittsburgh Steelers to town on Monday night. All eyes will be on new coach Jeff Saturday, as he leads his team under the brightest of lights. The Colts got off to a solid start under Saturday, winning against the Raiders, and losing by a single point to the 9-1 Eagles. One change that has helped the Colts is bringing back Matt Ryan. Ryan was benched in favor of Sam Ehlinger by the departed Frank Reich, and the 37-year-old is putting together solid starts in his return. He has yet to throw a pick and is making the necessary reads to succeed. For the Steelers, they are coming off the back of a shootout against the Bengals, where they ultimately fell short by a score of 37-30. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett continues to develop, and the Steelers can rely on their gritty defensive unit to keep them in games. Against the Colts, the Steelers will have an easier offensive matchup than they have faced in the last few weeks. While Ryan is playing well for the Colts, he certainly lacks the running ability to avoid a hungry defensive line. The Steelers will be able to get at Ryan early and often and will find themselves in a defensive battle. In a game that will likely come down to the final seconds, I will happily take the free field goal with the visitors.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

11-7-1 ATS record (61%)

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