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MLB Betting Help: Hot and Cold Moneyline, Runline and Totals July 19, 2022

by Devon Rymarchuk - 7/19/2022

MLB betting help hot and cold moneyline, runline and totals Aaron Judge New York Yankees

It’s officially MLB All-Star break, and a lot has happened in the past few weeks, from coaches being fired, teams hitting mid-season blues and players rejecting $440 million dollar contracts. Among all the noise, oddsmakers have gotten a firm grasp on where teams belong. Who’s good at home, which starters can almost guarantee wins, which bats get cold more often than not, and which teams were paying bettors a ton of money to start the season.

As we look at the hot and cold teams in the MLB, on the hot side, the top five teams in the MLB, according to power rankings, have remained stagnant, but from 5 to 10 has featured a lot of movement. The Milwaukee Brewers continue to catch their stride with above average hitting and no superstars – this is a tremendously well rounded squad. The Philadelphia Phillies have seen their off-season moves pan out as they continue to surge, and a 20-win month in June has seen the Boston Red Sox report back to royalty in the MLB.

On another note, the Toronto Blue Jays have been outright embarrassing. A team that had the second highest odds just had a sub .500 month in June….. the good news is that it happened in June. And with the recent coaching change, the hopes for Jays players, staff and fans is that this is the shake-up necessary to be able to compete in the toughest division in baseball.

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Hot Moneyline Teams

Baltimore Orioles 46-46

Last 10 games 8-2

Total Money $1759

It is not often that the hottest money line team mid-way through the season is fifth place in their division. They were only two games below .500 in May, and they had a winning record in June. Then July started with back-to-back walk-off losses followed immediately by eight straight wins, including three walk-off victories in five days. Their pitching is actually pretty good, and most of their everyday lineup has an OPS+ above league average. Adley Rutschman just hit his first Camden Yards home run, and there is plenty to be optimistic about in Baltimore. This solidifies how good the American League East really is….. in their division they have a 16-21 record, but outside of their division they hold a 30-25 record and are even better against teams above .500.

Seattle Mariners 51-42

Last 10 games: 10-0

Total Money $775

Are the Mariners that good or could their recent surge to relevance be contributed to a weak schedule in the past few weeks? Regardless, the Mariners have won 14 in a row and have put themselves in a playoff picture midway through the season. Avoiding playing the Houston Texans in the American League West has been the key to any sort of success this season. They have one of the game’s best young players in Julio Rodríguez (who’s already an All-Star) and a competent rotation from top to bottom (led by another young guy, Logan Gilbert, who’s pitching like an ace). Ty France is back from injury, and more impact players could follow.

Cold Moneyline Teams

Washington Nationals 31-63

Last 10 games 1-9

Total Money -$1768

When things couldn’t get much worse in Washington, 23-year-old All-Star Juan Soto rejected a 15-year, $440 million offer, which would have made him the highest paid player in baseball history.  After going 7-20 in June, the Nationals continue to be the worst team in baseball, going 1-9 in their last 10. You probably will not profit betting against them straight up, but they could come in handy by fading to win your parlay.

Chicago Cubs 35-57

Last 10 games 1-9

Total Money $-1446

Since June 10, the Cubs have had the toughest schedule in baseball, according to advanced analytics. However, hard times sometimes create a strong teams, but the Cubs are just not that strong. With the trade deadline approaching, id expect the Cubs to unload Ian Happ, who has been their best player this season. It’s also been a year of disappointment so far from the big free agent acquisitions, which included Marcus Stroman, who has been subpar at best. The Cubs have the fifth worst pitching in the majors with the sixth highest runs against, and their bats have been average at 15th in the MLB but not good enough to fil the gap from the bullpen.

Hot Runline Teams

St. Louis Cardinals

Run Line Record 50-43

Total Money $470

Covering the runline in 8 of their last 10, the St. Louis Cardinals have been working at a 54.3% clip this season. They are one of only 10 teams above 50% on the season. They have only been in 25 one run games and perform exceptionally well in the Central Division, holding a 24-14 record.

Tampa Bay Rays

Run Line Record 35-33

Total Money -$162

The Rays are notorious for finding, developing, and basically conjuring big-league pitchers. And, of course, they’re doing it again this year with guys you’ve perhaps never suspected of being actual major-league players: Jeffrey Springs. Colin Poche. Jason Adam. Those are all Rays with a sub-3.00 ERA and a meaningful innings workload. They also have maybe the best pitcher in the American League, which helps. But the Rays are also finding out-of-nowhere contributors on the offensive side. Isaac Paredes was a well-below-average hitter with the Tigers, and suddenly he’s mashing with the Rays.

Cold Runline Teams

Toronto Blue Jays

Run Line Record: 40-53

Total Money -$1348

Inconsistency has been the key word in the dugout overt the past few weeks. With their heads barely above water, the Blue Jays now enter the All-Star break in the thick of the Wild Card hunt. The Blue Jays have been in the most one run games in the Majors this year with 35, posting a 21-14 record, but from a gambling perspective the Jays are often favored by at least 1.5 because of their explosive bats, where they rank second in the MLB in batting average, 6th in home runs and 6th in RBI. Inconsistency from the bullpen has led to a lot of Jays loses in contests that are far too close for their liking. With batting as good as Toronto, they have turned into a streaky team that can put up 9 runs one night they lay an egg the next. When betting with the Jays, stay away from the runline and put your focus on the moneyline. The Jays have covered once since July 1.

Hot Over Teams

New York Yankees

O/U 44-45

The Yankees have gone over in 9 of their last 10 games, mostly from a ridiculous amount of offense from the Yankees bats. The Yankees have gone over 10 runs in 5 of their past 10, which is an astronomical number, as most teams do not do that in a season. The Yankees are sending six players to the All-Star Game, and it’s a telling mix. One is a homegrown superstar Aaron Judge, two are the result of deep pockets and a willingness to make big moves: Giancarlo Stanton and Gerrit Cole, and three are relatively under-the-radar acquisitions who have performed beyond anyone’s expectations in Jose Trevino, Nestor Cortes, Clay Holmes. This could be one of the most exciting teams to watch in the past decade.

Boston Red Sox

O/U 40-43

The Red Sox have gone over in 8 of their past 10 games and are one of five teams in baseball with at least 400 runs scored and 400 against, meaning that the offense is able to keep up to the Red Sox Shakey defense and bullpen. The trouble in the bullpen is mainly due to four rookies being in the starting rotation plus and outfielder in the past month. Therefore, as long as the injury bug stays in Boston, keep betting the over.

Hot Under Teams

Pittsburgh Pirates

O/U 39-54

The Pirates have gone under in 8 of their past 10 games, and that can be contributed to average to below average offense with above average pitching. The Pirates really do nothing special other than keep ball games low scoring in the past few weeks.

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