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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/28/2022

by Spencer Toth - 12/28/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Jrue Holiday

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, the goal is to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Christmas Day, the Bucks lost to the Celtics 139-118, stretching the Bucks losing streak to 3 games. Losing on the road to the league leaders is no reason to be alarmed, but the fact that they’ve lost by an average margin of 15.7 points during the losing skid is worrisome. Offensively, the Bucks played well against the Celtics, shooting 50% from the floor and 36% from behind the arc. Their scoring was balanced, with 5 players scoring 15+, but they fell short on the defensive end. Jayson Tatum dropped 41 points, and the Celtics went 19/39 from 3-point range. A once formidable Bucks defense has been unable to shut down the fellow Eastern Conference contenders. However, fortunately the Bucks have plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments before the playoffs.

From a betting perspective, we had another solid night. Our biggest play of the day was Over 224.5 which hit with ease, en route to a 2-1 night. The other win was Celtics moneyline, which was also not a sweat, and our lone blemish was Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 30.5 points, after he finished with 27. This puts us back into the green on the season, and I will be looking to build on that tonight.

The Bucks (22-11) finish up their 5-game road trip with a visit to Chicago to take on the Bulls (14-19). The Bulls started off the season in decent form, going 6-6 in their first 12 games, before winning just 8 of their next 21 matchups. However, they have been heating up as of late, as their 3-game win streak was snapped on Monday, after the Bulls lost to the league bottom feeders, the Houston Rockets, at home. The Bulls are led by DeMar DeRozan, who has a very unique skill set. DeRozan is a clear star in the league and finished 10th in MVP voting last season. He is unable to knock down the 3-point shot, shooting just 29.8% this season, which is surprisingly higher than his career average of 28.8%, and he thrives on the mid-range shot. His shooting percentage remains high, at 50.8%, ensuring he remains the primary option late in the game.

The Bulls were expected to have a solid season. However, just like last year, they have fallen short of expectations. Currently, the Bulls are out of the play-in tournament, sitting 0.5 games back of the Raptors for 10th place. They have a good ‘Big 3’ in the form of DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic, and the scoring depth needed to succeed. However, something just isn’t right in Chicago. The rumor mill has been swirling, with talks of shipping LaVine out of Chicago heating up, as they are desperate to win their first playoff series since 2015. The talent is certainly there, but the chemistry remains an issue. Without the team mentality in the locker room, this team will continue to struggle in the long run.

For the Bucks, they are also desperate to get back in the win column. They are no longer sitting atop the East, and the chasing pack is nipping at their heels. The Nets have won 9 straight games, and the 76ers have won 8 of their last 10. The once comfortable lead has shrunk, and the Bucks are just 2 games out of 5th place. Using the words ‘slowing down’ when describing Antetokounmpo must be taken with a grain of salt. He has still been playing at an All-Star caliber, but the Bucks need him to elevate back to MVP status to remain successful. Antetokounmpo has eclipsed the 30-point mark just twice in his last 8 games, and it is no shock the Bucks are 3-5 in that span. A visit to Chicago against the discombobulated Bulls is exactly what the doctor ordered, as the Bucks need to right the ship soon if they are to remain a league powerhouse.

These two teams met once already this season, and the Bulls emerged victorious, 118-113, on the back of a 36-point performance from DeRozan. The Bucks have struggled with the mid-range game throughout the year, and Chicago is the perfect team to exploit this. DeRozan and LaVine both have the size and skillset to cook up defenders in the open court, and the Bulls will be looking to put that to good use and stay away from Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez in the paint. For the Bucks, allowing the Bulls shooters open looks on the outside will not be the recipe for success. It’s not a common strategy, but the Bucks must allow the Bulls to get into their world and dominate in the paint.

Overall, I expect this game to be a high scoring contest, where the Bucks eventually emerge victorious. The total is set at a sky high 232, one of the highest totals for a Bucks game this season, and the spread is -4.5 for the Bucks. I am not comfortable laying a wager down on either of these props, as laying points on a road team, on a losing streak, is not a wise move, and 232 is close to where I expect this game to finish.

The first bet for tonight is Brook Lopez Over 13.5 points for 3 Units. Lopez is a big man who can grab offensive rebounds, and shoot 3’s. Khris Middelton remains out, leaving Lopez and Jrue Holiday to share the load when the ball is not in Antetokounmpo’s hands. Lopez has surpassed this line in each of his last 5 games and should fill the bucket once again tonight.

The second bet for tonight is Milwaukee Bucks moneyline at -190 odds for 1 Unit. While I don’t want to lay the points, I do thoroughly expect the Bucks to get back to winning ways against a struggling Bulls team. The Bucks defense can expose the cracks in lineups, and the Bulls will certainly go through cold spells tonight. This one will go right down to the wire, but the Bucks will walk away with the win.

Pick: Brook Lopez Over 13.5 Points 3 Units

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline -190 1 Units

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 5-4

Spread Record: 5-7

Total Record: 4-6

Player Props Record: 11-9

Total: 25-28

Up 1.1 Units ($110)

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