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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/4/2022

by Spencer Toth - 11/4/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily predictions Jrue Holiday

In the 2022-23 NBA season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks game, and giving my best bets for each contest. This will include moneylines, totals, spreads, and player props. Using an in-depth knowledge on the Bucks, and the entire NBA, I will be able to churn a profit throughout the season. While every game might not be 3-0; consistent, positive results are the goal.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Wednesday night, the Bucks beat the Pistons 116-91, easily cashing our top bet of the day, Bucks (-11.5). Unfortunately, due to the lopsided nature of the contest, Giannis Antetokounmpo got pulled with 8 minutes to go, at 32 points, when we needed over 32.5. Beats like that hurt, but money was still made thanks to the Bucks cover.

The Bucks moved to 7-0 with the win and remain the only undefeated team in the NBA. The surprise player of the season has been Jrue Holiday, as he put up another solid performance, with 26 points, his 3rd straight 25+ point performance. The absence of Khris Middleton has been reduced thanks to Holiday’s stellar play and has turned this Bucks franchise into the NBA title favorites.

Next up for the Bucks is a visit to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves made some big offseason signings, selling the farm to acquire 3-time DPOY Rudy Gobert. Jumping into an already talented roster, Gobert was expected to make the Timberwolves a top NBA team. However, things have not exactly gone to plan in Minnesota, as the team sits at 4-4 through the first two weeks of the season. While 4-4 may not seem too bad, the four wins came against the Thunder, Thunder, Spurs, and Lakers, while the four losses were the Jazz, Spurs, Spurs, and Suns. The Timberwolves act like they are better than this and must start delivering positive results soon. Entering tonight, Gobert and Anthony Edwards are questionable with illnesses, but I expect them to play since they haven’t been ruled out yet.

In Minnesota, all hope is not lost, as the Timberwolves have a long season ahead of them and have the pieces needed to compete in the NBA. Former first overall pick Edwards continues to develop and is averaging 23.1 PPG to go along with 6.1 Rebounds and 4 Assists. The ‘Ant-Man’ is still only 21 years old and is clearly on an upward trajectory this year. As long as Edwards’ stock keeps rising, the Timberwolves window for success remains open.

For the Bucks, a road game in Minnesota is not ideal but not too far from home either. The quest to remain perfect for as long as possible is certainly still alive, but the Bucks have to take it game by game to avoid slipping up, something they nearly did Monday against the Pistons. A big matchup will be Antetokounmpo up against Gobert. Both players are former DPOYs, but the big test will be if Gobert can slow down the torrid pace Antetokounmpo has set to start the season. He certainly has the capabilities to do so, but slowing him down will be the goal as shutting him down completely seems virtually impossible.

On the outside, Edwards will be matched up against Holiday. And considering the early season form for the Bucks guard, it is hard to say which team has the advantage. Holiday has always been an effective tool on the defensive end, but his offensive leaps have him in the same weight class as a proven talent like Edwards. While there is still room for improvement, Holiday is now a certified two-way player.

Finally, there’s Karl-Anthony Towns up against Brook Lopez. Lopez is an elite paint protector, and Towns will give him a different defensive test than usual. Towns likes to shoot 3’s, a feature few NBA centers possess, and will challenge Lopez to guard him away from his home in the paint. While this isn’t Lopez’s first rodeo, I expect Towns to be able to get the better of him on the outside.

From a betting standpoint, I am baffled by this line. The Bucks enter this game as a 3.5-point favorite, and are a surprisingly playable -170 on the moneyline. When I saw this matchup a few days ago, I expected the line to be closer to 7 or 8 points, and this was before Gobert and Edwards got sick. The Bucks have asserted their dominance over anyone who stands in their way this year, and the Timberwolves lost to the Spurs twice. Ouch.

The first bet for this game has to be Bucks (-3.5). As mentioned above, the Bucks have been able to swat teams aside, and I feel as though they have an edge in a majority of the matchups on the court. Of course, the Bucks could be outmatched in 4/5 positions, and still win thanks to Antetokounmpo. I know the Bucks are on the road, but a 3.5-point line feels flat out disrespectful to the undefeated Bucks.

Unfortunately, the other lines are being held while the status of Edwards and Gobert remains up in the air. One player I like for tonight’s game is Karl-Anthony Towns. When the points line gets dropped, I expect it to be in the 22-point region. If the line is 22.5 or lower, take the over on his points. The matchup with Lopez plays into Towns’ hands, and I expect him to be able to perform well.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) 6 Units

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 22.5 Points or lower 1 Unit

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 1-0

Spread Record: 1-2

Total Record: 1-2

Player Props Record: 1-3

Total: 4-7 

Down 4.9 Units ($490)

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