Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/18/2022
On Wednesday night, the Bucks improved to 11-3 with their convincing win over the Cleveland Cavaliers by a score of 113-98. Brook Lopez led the way with 29 points, while Jordan Nwora chipped in off the bench, scoring 21 points. The Bucks beat a healthy Cavs lineup while missing Jrue Holiday, which shows the level this team is on. They are playing like the best team in the NBA. And once their stars return, they will be borderline unstoppable.
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Throughout the NBA season, I will be breaking down Milwaukee Bucks games, and giving out my best bets for each contest. While we may not always side with the Bucks, using in-depth knowledge on the team, and on the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a profit throughout the season. We may not always go perfect, but consistent winning results is what we are after.
On Wednesday, we had a quiet, yet effective night, hitting our only bet of the game. Darius Garland put up 23 points, cashing our Over 20.5 bet for 3 units. We were very selective, as there were a lot of question marks surrounding lineups, and sometimes the best bet to make is to hold off and not bet.
Tonight, the Bucks head to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers. The Bucks opened up their season against Philly, beating them 90-88 on Philly’s home court. They will be confident they can do it again and are coming in as small underdogs.
The 76ers are coming off an extended break, having not played since Sunday night, where they picked up a win against Utah, bringing them back to 7-7. The 76ers have enjoyed the growth Tyrese Maxey has had, making him a solid 3rd option behind Joel Embiid and James Harden. Maxey is one of the fastest players in the league and uses his speed very effectively on the offensive end. His darting runs and lightning-fast handles open the floor and create space for his fellow stars. From deep, he’s shooting 41% and racking up 22.8 PPG, far and away his career high. A reliable third option is a luxury few teams have around the league, and the 76ers could be better than their record suggests, having gone 0-2 in one-possession games.
Across the court stands a very confident Bucks unit. The Bucks may no longer be undefeated but are still an Eastern Conference powerhouse. Giannis Antetokounmpo is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season, and Holiday has taken massive steps to improve his game at both ends of the court. Once Khris Middleton rejoins the action, I’m very scared for anyone who steps in front of this team.
Despite the Bucks’ stars having career years, the role players have still found ways to step up and deliver. Wednesday night, Holiday and Grayson Allen joined Khris Middleton on the bench, and the Bucks still won handily despite Antetokounmpo going 6/18 from the field and 4/11 from the line.
Against the 76ers, the Bucks will once again rely on their bench to outperform the oppositions. Embiid and Antetokounmpo should cancel each other out, while Holiday should do an effective job limiting the production of Harden and Maxey, leaving the benches to duke it out. Personally, I’d much rather have Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis roaming the paint over whoever the 76ers throw on to cover for Embiid.
The first bet for tonight’s game is Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline at +110 odds. I understand Middleton is still out, and Holiday may be playing through an injury, but there is no reason the Bucks deserve to be the underdog in Philly. Middleton has missed the entire season, and the Bucks have still managed to improve since last year. While the 76ers are coming off an extended rest, they may come out slow to start the game. If the Bucks can build an early lead, there are few routes for the 76ers to get back in the game. The Bucks have the rim protection to shut down Embiid. And between Antetokounmpo, Lopez, and Portis, they should have no trouble controlling the glass. The 76ers rank 29th in the league in second chance points and will certainly struggle against the trio of big men the Bucks have to offer.
The second bet of the night is Tyrese Maxey Under 5.5 Assists at -150 odds. Maxey will be up against Holiday for a majority of the game and will look to quickly get the ball out of his hands on the offensive end. Whether it be through driving or quick passes, I don’t expect Maxey to make the passes necessary to generate assists. When Holiday switches off him, he will look to attack the basket or take quick shots, which will lead to our under hitting.
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline +110 4 Units
Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 5.5 Assists -150 3 Units
2022 Season record:
ML Record: 2-0
Spread Record: 2-3
Total Record: 1-2
Player Props Record: 3-4
Total: 8-9
Up 0.8 Units ($80)
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