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Super Bowl Runningback Props and RB Predictions

by Jason Radowitz - 2/3/2021

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl viewers are expecting lots of passing but not much running. All of the talk about the big game is about the quarterbacks and how great the passing game is with both of these teams. That talk is correct, but there’s still plenty of value betting on running back props for the Super Bowl. Both teams have plenty of reliable running backs.

Since both offenses like to pass first, that is a good thing if you’re looking for “under” on attempts. For others, that is a bad thing if you’re looking for the “over” on yards. Here are some predictions for the running backs in Super Bowl LV. 

Rushing Attempts:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City (U 8.5, -115)

The Chiefs have three capable running backs and will likely use all of them while also finding ways to get Mecole Hardman and Tyreek Hill end arounds. There’s not enough attempts for all of these running backs knowing Le’Veon Bell should be back in the mix along with Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams.

Edwards-Helaire had six rushes for seven yards against the Bills in the AFC Championship, while Williams had 13 carries for 52 yards. Bell could steal carries from both of these running backs as well.

With that said, Edwards-Helaire has had a great season. He’s going to be a great back. However, if he racked up just one yard per carry against the Bills, I don’t think he’ll get much more against the Buccaneers. The Chiefs will short him his carries in this game. I’d take the under here.

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Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay (O 11.5, -110)

Fournette became the unsung hero in the NFC Championship Game against the Packers and stole carries away from Ronald Jones II, who was originally the starting running back. Fournette had 12 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown and saw 17 carries against the Saints and 19 against Washington in the playoffs. Of course, Jones being back limited his carries. However, he’s been outperforming Jones and it’s obvious. Fournette is the main back and should get at least 12 carries, especially when the Bucs lead early.

Rushing Yards:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City (U 29.5, -120)

Again, Clyde had seven yards on six carries against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league in Buffalo. Williams stole his carries and production. It’ll be much harder to gain yards on the ground against the Buccaneers. He did have 37 yards rushing against the Buccaneers in Week 12 on 11 carries for 3.4 yards. However, at this point, the expectation is that he gets minimal carries with Bell and Williams in the mix now. I’d take under on his rushing yards and obviously rushing attempts as stated above.

Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay (O 48.5, -120)

Fournette is averaging 4.4 yards per carry in the postseason this year. If he were to get 12 carries, he would, on average, have 52.8 yards on the ground in this game. The key will be to get Fournette going early. Once he’s performing well, Jones III won’t get his carries and Fournette will be the guy in the Super Bowl. I like the chances of the Buccaneers getting a big rush over the Chiefs in this game. Fournette has proven this postseason that he’s still that star running back that we used to see in Jacksonville.

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