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Super Bowl Quarterback Props and QB Predictions

by Jason Radowitz - 2/3/2021

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

We’ve heard the term GOAT (Greatest of All Time) used plenty in the last week or so. That’s because Tom Brady is quarterbacking for the Buccaneers in his 10th Super Bowl. He’s won six of them and is looking for his seventh. Brady has broken tons of records in the postseason and has the most wins in Super Bowl history. He's easily the greatest of all time. But Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes just won his first Super Bowl last season. And if he’s able to win his second Super Bowl in as many years, the GOAT talk could shift to Mahomes in the near future.

It’s going to be quite the battle. Here are some player props to look at for the quarterbacks in Super Bowl LV.

Patrick Mahomes “over/under” 335.5 passing yards

Mahomes hasn’t hit this number in his first two playoff games. However, if we flash back to Week 12 between the Buccaneers and the Chiefs, Mahomes threw for 462 yards passing, completed 75.5 passes and averaged almost a first down on his completions. Mahomes tallied three touchdowns and no interceptions and threw for nearly 300 yards just to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Throughout the postseason, those two have been his same comfortable targets, and they’ve produced. In a game where I believe the over will hit, I also like the over on this prop. Look for the Buccaneers to get ahead early in this game, unlike last time. When that happens, the Chiefs will need to throw themselves back in the game.

Tom Brady over/under 301.5 passing yards

Brady and the Buccaneers were losing in Week 12, 17-0 early in the first quarter against the Chiefs and had to start letting loose and throwing every down. He threw for 345 yards in that game but still threw two interceptions along with three touchdowns. Brady is coming off the NFC Championship Game where he threw three interceptions. The Chiefs secondary has played a lot better recently and has stepped up big time thanks to solid pressure by the Chiefs front seven on the quarterback. When Brady is pressured, he struggles. Like I said, I expect the Buccaneers to get ahead early. If he’s able to get one big play in the air, he’ll hit this over as well.

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Tom Brady Interceptions 0.5 -175

Brady is coming off a three-interception performance last week, and we know the Chiefs are going to bring pressure in this game. With that, I’d expect one interception to fall in the hands of the Chiefs in this game. The juice is a bit high, but Brady threw two interceptions earlier this season against the Chiefs and doesn’t look to be in perfect form. With the pressure comes turnovers. I believe he’ll have at least one interception in this game.

Mahomes passing TDs - o/u 2.5

Mahomes is usually good for two touchdowns in a game, but the hook could cost you here. Still, I like the over. As I continue to say, I believe this game goes over the total, meaning we’ll see a bunch of points and touchdowns. Mahomes will get Sammy Watkins back in the lineup, and he was a big performer last year in the playoffs. With Watkins, Hill and Kelce aren’t the only two premier targets. Watkins could either become a big factor or help Hill and Kelce get even more looks, especially in the endzone. Mahomes has three or more touchdowns in seven games this season. And in the postseason, you know he’s going to be ready and prepared.

The wide outs on the Chiefs are too much for the Bucs to handle.

Mahomes Rushing Attempts - o/u 4.5

Mahomes has been sidelined due to a concussion and turf toe pretty recently. He had five attempts against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game for just five yards and three attempts against the Browns in the game before. The Chiefs want to protect Mahomes at all costs, and I don’t think he’s going to be able to get out of the pocket and scramble against the Bucs defense. I would take the under in this spot knowing Mahomes certainly wants to stay healthy to finish this game and get the win.

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