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NFL Wild Card Betting Picks: Best Prop Bets Bears at Saints

by Chris Vasile - 1/8/2021

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 4:40 p.m. EST. Jan 10, 2021.

When the Chicago Bears travel to New Orleans to take on Drew Brees and the Saints, it’ll mark just the third-ever meeting between the two franchises in the postseason. The Bears got the better of the Saints in both meetings, first in a 1990 Wild-Card game and then in the NFC Championship Game in 2006, and then they lost to the Colts in the Super Bowl. This year, it’s the Saints who are heavily favorite and expected to make a deep playoff run one last time for their franchise quarterback.  

As of writing this, the Saints are 10-point favorites with the total set at 48. These two teams had polar opposite seasons, so it’s no surprise the Saints are favored by this much. The Bears had a roller-coaster type season where they benched their starter, only to go back to him and find success. The Bears needed to win three of their final four games to get to 8-8 and sneak into the postseason. As for the Saints, they coasted to a 12-4 season despite missing key parts for lengthy periods of time this season. They should be able to get the win in this contest> however, instead of worrying about the side or total, I’ve keyed a few props that I believe give us the best shot of turning a profit.

Team Total Points

Chicago Bears – “Over 17.5” -120, “Under 17.5”, -120

This game is similar to the Bucs/Football Team game. The Bears know that their best chance is going to be a solid game plan and a stout defense. The longer they can maintain possession, the less time Drew Brees has with the football on offense. The Bears’ offense is also going to be a vital piece to pulling off the upset. They are going to need to score points (duh) on almost every possession and limit the turnovers. The Bears offense is rolling right now, having scored 16, 41, 33, 36, 30 and 25 points over their last six games. They go up against a Saints defense that, despite ranking well, have been susceptible of late. If we throw out the Saints’ Week 17 win against a bad Carolina team, the Saints have given up 33, 29, 24, and 16 in the previous four games. So, what do we have here? We have two teams that are bound to put up points, as each team’s defense is weaker than advertised and we see both teams scoring into the 20s for this contest. Take the over on the Bears’ team total in this one.

Pick: Over 17.5 -120

Player Passing Touchdowns

Mitch Trubisky “Over” 1.5 -120, “Under” 1.5 -120

I wish we were getting plus-money on the side we like in this one as we would be all over it and call the bet of the century. Instead, with both sides laying -120, we’ll just simply say we like this bet and we think it will cash. How do we not take the “over”? We are already on the Bears’ team total over 17.5 points, and one would have to think that this is an audition for Trubisky for the Bears and teams across the league. He’s had a hell of a season so far with winning the starting job out of camp, getting benched, getting injured, winning his starting role back via Nick Foles injury, and now rejuvenating the offense to the tune of 37 points per contest while winning three of the last four games to get into the postseason. The Bears already took the Saints to overtime this season. And while I know the Saints defense is among the best units in the league, the Bears seem to have this aura that reeks of chaos about them. I don’t think it would be crazy to see both teams put up 20+ points and Trubisky do most of the damage through the air.

Pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

 Player Total Receiving Yards

Michael Thomas “Over” 69.5 -115, “Under” 69.5 -115

I wish I could just write “fantasy bust” and be done with this paragraph, but I can’t. Thomas has been a major disappointment this year as he’s been dealing with an injured ankle the majority of the season. He’s only played in seven games and topped the 70 yard-receiving mark three times. In a game of this magnitude, aka the playoffs, against a team the Saints are supposed to beat, I don’t see Sean Payton or Drew Brees dialing up many plays for Thomas. They are going to go with what and who got them to a 12-4 record. That means some Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook and potentially Taysom Hill if Payton wakes up and decides he wants to waste snaps. The Bears have a top-12 defensive unit in stopping the pass, and we just don’t believe Thomas will be a big factor in this one due to coverage and due to the Saints game plan.

Pick: Under 69.5 receiving yards.

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