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NFL Divisional Round Betting Predictions: Best Props Buccaneers at Saints

by Chris Vasile - 1/15/2021

Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 6:40 p.m. EST. Jan 17, 2021.

When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to New Orleans to take on Drew Brees and the Saints, it’ll mark the first-ever meeting between the two franchises in the postseason. If we are talking about the regular season, the Bucs and Saints first met in 1957, with the Bucs scoring a 33-17 win. However, the Saints own the season series having won 37 of 58 head-to-head matchups, including both games this season by scores of 34-23 and 38-3, respectively.   

As of writing this, the Saints are three-point favorites with the total set at 52. For the Bucs, they were completely in control of their Wild Card game against the Football Team, despite winning that game 31-23. The score was much closer than the game really was, and so the Bucs should feel confident in their abilities to exact some revenge on their division rivals. As for the Saints, they were also in complete control of their matchup against the Bears as they cruised to a 21-9 victory while giving up just 239 yards of total offense. It’ll be interesting to see the adjustments both teams make as this will be the third meeting of the season, and it’s typically tough to beat a division opponent twice in one season, let alone three times.  

Team Total Points

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – “Over 23.5” -120, “Under 23.5”, -120

One would have to think that the Bucs have been waiting for this game for some time. They were simply embarrassed in their last meeting against the Saints. And if we’ve learned anything from Brady in his 20 seasons in the league, it’s that he hates losing and often bounces back in a big way. The Buccaneers have an offense that is explosive and that loves to throw the ball down field. They collection of weapons they have at the skill positions is impressive, and we believe there will be one too many options for the Saints to cover effectively. The Bucs rank third in the league in points per game and sit second in passing yards per game. You have an-time great quarterback at the helm and a coach that knows how to make adjustments on the fly. This game is pegged to be a very high-scoring contest despite featuring two defensive units that rank out well in relation to the rest of the league. Brady and Brees will put on a show in what figures to be their final matchup, and both teams score well into the 20s.

Pick: Over 23.5 -120

Player Receiving Yards

Cameron Brate “Over” 19.5 -120, “Under” 19.5 -120

We’ve seen very little out of Rob Gronkowski over the last handful of games. In fact, he’s recorded three or fewer receptions in his last five games, which tells me he’s simply not being used in the passing game. You want to know who is? Cameron Brate. The other, more athletic tight end. Brate has caught three or more passes in five of his last eight games and has gone over the 20-yard mark in seven of his last nine games. The Saints are going to need to pick their poison as to which player they want to double or shade coverage to, and we believe Brate is going to have a big day in the middle of the field. We already know Brady loves his tight-ends as seen by his time in New England with the aforementioned Gronkowski. Brate had 80 yards in last week’s game. And once you earn Brady’s trust in big spots, he’s going to keep coming back to you. This low number is a gift, and we are going to be all over it.

Pick: Over 19.5 Receiving Yards

 Player Rushing Yards

Alvin Kamara “Over” 62.5 -115, “Under” 62.5 -115

This is a low number for one of the better all-purpose running backs in the league. Normally we’d lean with the over, but Kamara will be facing the No. 1-ranked run defense in the league, and we don’t see that going well for him. We expect Kamara to do damage in the passing game. And with this game set up for plenty of points, throwing the ball is going to be the name of the game. It’s hard to imagine the potential final meeting between Brady and Brees going out with a whimper, so we see both quarterbacks airing it out way more then they probably should. Kamara has stayed under this total in six of his last nine games, and we don’t see that trend changing in this contest.

Pick: Under 62.5 rushing yards.

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