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NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks: Best Props Browns at Chiefs

by Chris Vasile - 1/15/2021

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: Arrowhead Stadium 3:05 p.m. EST. Jan 17, 2021.

When the Cleveland Browns travel Kansas City to take on the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs, it’ll mark the first-ever meeting between the two franchises in postseason play. By now, I’m sure we all know how the Browns earned the right to play in this contest, so I won’t go into too much detail on that. I will say is that the Browns might have momentum and some swag that could boost the team up another notch and perhaps put a real scare into the Chiefs. As for the Chiefs, they had the bye-week last week courtesy of finishing first in the AFC, and we all know how good Andy Reid’s teams are coming off a bye.

As of writing this, the Chiefs are 10-point favorites with the total set at 56.5. This game has a bit of a contrasting style appeal to it. The Browns best shot to win this game is to run the ball 50 times and keep Mahomes and the Chiefs’ high-powered offense off the field. The Browns rank third in rushing, while the Chiefs rank 21st in run defense. For the Chiefs, they’ll lean on Mahomes to make plays with his arm as they rank first in passing yards per game and go up against the 22nd-ranked passing defense. Whichever team is allowed to dictate the style of play they would prefer is going to have the best shot at winning this football game.

Team Total Points

Kansas City Chiefs – “Over 34.5” -120, “Under 34.5”, -120

For as vaunted as the Chiefs offense has been this season, ranking first in total yards and passing yards, sixth in points and third in third-down conversion percentage, you have to do a little digging to see the points have been lacking as of late. If you go back and look and throw out the last meaningless game against the Chargers, the Chiefs have scored 35 or more points in just two of their last eight games. That’s not to say they won’t get their points, I’m just saying that the Chiefs are more likely to hit the upper 20s than upper 30s, especially against a Cleveland team that is playing inspired ball right now after last week’s big win. The fact that reinforcements are on the way for the Browns only bolsters this bet as we see the defense playing quality ball and getting one or two turnovers in this contest. The Chiefs know that they are big favorites in this contest, so a little lackadaisical approach may seep in and they may just want to win by any means necessary and get to the AFC Championship Game healthy. The Browns game plan is going to be to run the football and drain the clock. The Chiefs have a quick-score offense, but 35 points is a lot of points to score in a playoff game. Take the Under.

Pick: Under 35.5 -120

Player Passing Yards

Baker Mayfield “Over” 261.5 -120, “Under” 261.5 -120

I believe this is going to be a lower scoring game than most people think. If you take away the stunning 28-0 lead against the Steelers courtesy of turnovers, the Browns offense didn’t do much. The stat line for Baker says he threw for263 and three touchdowns, but the Steelers were beat right from the get-go. Going up against the Chiefs, it’s going to be a different story and the Browns simply will not put up 48 points again on 390 total yards. Think about that for a second; the Browns lost the yardage battle by. 163 yards yet still scored 48 points. The Browns know that the way to win this contest is to run the football and dominate possession.  I think this sets up nicely for a Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt game to run the ball every chance they get. If the Browns do this and avoid the costly turnovers and get to the fourth quarter, tied or at least within striking distance, the Browns may be able to shock the world.

Pick: Under 261.5 passing yards

Player Total Rushing Yards

Kareem Hunt “Over” 31.5 -115, “Under” 31.5 -115

Cleveland has a two-headed monster in the backfield. Chubb is undoubtedly the bell-cow running back, but Kareem Hunt is a very physical runner with the ability to make men miss with his speed and athleticism. I’ve already talked in spades about how I believe the Browns pull off the upset: run, run and run some more. Chubb will get his yards and so will Mayfield while scrambling for his life. Hunt has publicly stated that he’s been looking forward to facing off against the team that cut him, and we expect a big game out of him. The prop of 31.5 yards isn’t a big number if you believe that Hunt will have double-digit rush attempts. Remember, the Chiefs are brutal vs the run. They rank 21st while giving up 122.1 yards. If Hunt gets going early, the Browns would be dumb not to ride him and use Chubb, the more superior back, as a massive change of pace and production.

Pick: Over 31.5 rushing yards.

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